Sunday, January 1, 2017

Week 17 Pick

Baltimore (-2.5) @ Cincinnati- Neither team has anything to play for.  Consider Baltimore the slight favorites here as they looked impressive but fell short against the Steelers while the Bengals still look a bit out of sorts without AJ Green in the lineup.

Buffalo (-3.5) @ New York Jets- Buffalo is out of the playoffs and fired Rex Ryan but looked solid against the Dolphins.  The Jets have struggled in blowout losses in consecutive weeks to the Patriots and Dolphins.  The Bills are looking to make up for a poor performance in a 37-31 loss in week 2.  Fitzpatrick's record this season as a starting QB is 2-8 and the change to colder weather conditions may favor the Bills.

Carolina @ Tampa Bay (-3.5) - The Buccaneers needs a lot of help to get in including a Washington loss but should be motivated to come away with a win.  Carolina came back to earth against the Falcons after a nice win against Washington.

Chicago (+6) @ Minnesota -
Jordan Howard looks to set the single rookie season rushing record,
needing only 63 yards to pass Matt Forte.

Everyone was talking up Matt Barkely last week but it didn't work out too well as he threw 5 interceptions against Washington.  The Vikings are now 2-8 after starting the season 5-0.  With nothing to playoff, Minnesota is the slight favorites although the Bears have kept it close in their last couple of games against their division rivals.

Cleveland @ Pittsburgh (-4) -
Robert Griffin is cleared to play after suffering a concussion.

The Steelers are still the favorites as the Browns could be due for a let down after beating the Chargers.

Dallas (+6.5) @ Philadelphia - The Eagles look frisky with Lane Johnson returning from his 10 game suspension.   The Cowboys have already clinched homefield, nonetheless played hard in a meaningless game for them against the Detroit Lions.  The Cowboys certainly have capable backups at the skill positions which could make this a close game where Philadelphia should come out on top because they are playing at home.

Green Bay @ Detroit (-3.5)-
It may come down to Stafford in the closing possessions of the game.


The winner of this game will ultimately win the division and the loser may miss the playoffs.  The Packers are on have the momentum in this game given that they have won their past 5 games but the Lions could keep it close considering they are 6-1 at home.  The Lions will be without Theo Riddick which could hurt their chances to win the game, but will get back corner Darius Slay.   Green Bay may be the slight favorites but it could come down to crunchtime in the 4th quarter.

Houston (+3) @ Tennessee -  Consider the Texans slight favorites with Mariota
out for the season in a meaningless game.  Houston looks to sweep the division for the first time in its franchise history.

Jacksonville (+5) @ Indianapolis -
 Frank Gore only needs 37 yards to add another 1000 rushing season to his resume. 

The Jaguars played well against an injured riddled Titans team.  The Colts may be motivated to win this game to help keep Chuck Pagano's head coaching job.  While the Colts should win, the Jaguars could make it interesting considering the effort they put forth in a 38-17 victory against the Titans.

New England (-9.5) @ Miami - New England looks to earn a win to gain homefield advantage throughout the playoffs while the Dolphins may rest their starters as Miami has already clinched a playoff spot.

New Orleans @ Atlanta (-7.5) - The Falcons are playing for a bye week and Matt Ryan tries to solidify his case for MVP.  While the Saints offense has looked great the last couple of weeks, New Orleans has shown they are not as good on the road.

NY Giants (+7) @ Washington - Washington needs this game to keep what little chance it has the playoffs alive.  The Giants have a history of not resting its starters in meaningless games including a 38-35 loss to the Patriots in week 17 of 2007.  Washington is more likely than not to come away with a win but the game could be close considering the Redskins and the Giants are division rivals and the Giants are looking to even the season series.

Arizona (-7) @ LA- The Cardinals look to close the season strong after beating Seattle on the road.  The Rams still look like they are in shell shock as the firing of Jeff Fisher has done little to improve the teams play in the short term.

Kansas City (-4.5) @ San Diego- Kansas City is still playing for a first round bye and hopes to beat a the Chargers who just lost to the Cleveland Browns.

Seattle @ San Francisco (+10.5) - Seattle should win as they will likely try to make up for a poor performance and try to keep their hopes of a first round bye alive.  Although the 49ers did play well against the Rams last week and could keep the game within single digits.

Oakland(-1) @ Denver - Oakland's backup QB Matt McGloin looked solid on a 3rd down conversion to clinch the game against the Colts.  The Broncos defense is a different animal but could struggle due to its offense, especially because of its offensive line which has suffered a few key injuries.

Week 16 against the spread: 9-7
Week 16 straight up: 11-5
Season against the Spread: 128-102-7
Straight up (since week 9)- 81-39

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