Sunday, October 30, 2022

2022 Week 8 NFL Picks

Denver Broncos vs Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5) (in London) - The Broncos have been one of the most disappointing teams this season.  The Jaguars came into the season with low expectations but after a few surprise wins, they have been underachieving.   This should be a low scoring game provided the defense doesn't make some scoring plays.  The Broncos lack of a running game makes me slightly favor the Jaguars who have played well in London.

Chicago Bears (+9.5) @ Dallas Cowboys  - The Bears are coming off a surprise win against the Patriots where they ran the ball well and Justin Fields was certainly more consistent than he's been this season as the Bears completed an upset victory like they did in week 1 against the 49ers.  The Cowboys barely did enough to cover against the Rams and were aided b how Armon St. Brown exited the game.  Still, it's hard to take the Bears too seriously even though they played well, I would expect a letdown on the road.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+10.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles  - The Steelers had plenty of opportunities to complete an upset against the Dolphins last week but it just looks like Kenny Pickett stares down his receivers.  The Eagles could provide similar trouble for the rookie quarterback and I expect the Eagles to at least put up 20 points.  Najee Harris did look springy last week though and the Eagles can't let complacency step in as the Steelers defense is playing well.

New England Patriots @ New York Jets (+1.5) -  The Patriots should be playing better after a complete letdown.  While the Jets are an upstart team, they will be missing Hall.  It's hard to make out how good the Jets defense is as they did contain the Packers and Broncos recently.  While the quarterback play is inconsistent, at least Rhamondre Stevenson could provide a lift.

Miami Dolphins (-3.5) @ Detroit Lions - The Lions kept it close against Dallas last week.  The Dolphins defense has been playing well although Tua didn't seem to get it going throughout the game.

Carolina Panthers(+4.5) @ Atlanta Falcons - The Panthers may keep it close in a divisional game coming off a surprise win against the Bucs.  The Falcons failed to cover for the first time this season.

Arizona Cardinals (+3.5) @ Minnesota Vikings - The Cardinals are coming off a Thursday night whereas the Vikings are coming off a bye.   While Arizona will be without running back James Conner, Eno Benjamin so far this season has filled in admirably.  The problem of course is that Arizona has to contend with Justin Jefferson although they did manage to score two defensive touchdowns the last time we saw them.  The Vikings should be favored but it could be a close game especially with DeAndre Hopkins back in the lineup.

Las Vegas Raiders (-2) @ New Orleans Saints - The Raiders unleashed Josh Jacobs last week.  I expect this game to be a high scoring one.

Tennessee Titans (-2) @ Houston Texans -  Ryan Tannehill is out.  The Texans will have their hands full containing Derrick Henry though.  

New York Giants @ Seattle Seahawks (-3) - Both teams are playing well given the forecasts they ha coming into the season.  I expect the Seahawks to take this one at home.

Washington Commanders (+3) @ Indianapolis Colts -  Sam Ehlinger makes his debut against a Washington team that played extremely well against the Green Bay Packers.  The key to this game will be whether the Commanders can contain Jonathan Taylor.  If not, expect Ehlinger to get it going against a Washington secondary that has looked suspect at times earlier in the season against teams like Detroit and Philadelphia.  

San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams (-1.5) - The Rams and 49ers have not been playing up to expectations.  The Rams running game is atrocious while the 49ers defense has been one of the worst, being exposed by the Falcons and Chiefs in consecutive weeks.  Cooper Kupp should have a big game but Sean McVay needs a game plan that gets others involved.

Green Bay Packers (+11.5) @ Buffalo Bills - The Packers have suffered defeats to Giants, Jets, and Commanders leaving Aron Rodgers with the taste of his first consecutive 3 game losing streak in his career.  The Bills are unlikely to have a complete let down and lose the game although the Packers will attempt to salvage their season.  

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns (+3.5) -  Jamarr Chase is out although Tyler Boyd did his best impression last week in their victory against the Falcons.   The Browns defense is much better, the questions of course is whether Jacoby Brissett can keep up with Joe Burrow.  



 Week 7 Against the Spread - 10-4

Week 7 Straight Up -  10-4

2022 Against the spread - 54-51-2

2022 Straight up - 63-45

2021 Against the Spread- 151-127-1

2021 Straight Up- 162-101-1
2021 Locks - 10-5

2020 Against the Spread- 124-140-6
2020 Week Straight Up - 173-97-1
2020 Locks- 24-24-2

2019 Season Against the Spread- 128-113-3
2019 Season Straight Up- 158-103
2019 Locks - 21-19-2
2020 Postseason against the Spread- 8-3
2020 Postseason Straight Up- 7-4


2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110 


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Sunday, October 23, 2022

2022 Week 7 Picks

Atlanta Falcons (+6) @ Cincinnati Bengals - The Falcons could cover against a Bengals team due to its ball control offense.  

Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys (-7)- I'm expecting the Cowboys to bounce back after a loss against the Eagles.  Jared Goff could struggle on the road against this pass rush.

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans (-2.5) - The Titans are coming off a bye which could give them the edge against a Colts team that hasn't been playing well despite its winning record.

Green Bay Packers @ Washington Commanders (+5.5) - The first time I'm picking Washington with the spread.  Hopefully, Heinikie make me regret it.  The Packers just haven't been playing well with losses against the Jets and Giants.   Although I would be very surprised if Washington wins, which would make me lower the stock of the Packers going forward.

New York Giants (+3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars - The Jaguars have struggled lately and while their pass rush is impressive, the Giants could repeat the same formula of running the ball against a Jaguars team that doesn't have a great homefield advantage.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10.5) @ Carolina Panthers-  Simply taking the Bucs here only because the Panthers just traded Christian McCaffrey and their defense has been horrendous.

Cleveland Browns (+6.5) @ Baltimore Ravens -  The Ravens should win but the Ravens lack of defense could keep the Browns in it especially with their running game.

New York Jets (+1.5) @ Denver Broncos - The Jets could continue running the ball against the Broncos who are without Russell Wilson.

Houston Texans (+7) @ Las Vegas Raiders - The Raiders are on of the most disappointing teams in the league and will be without Waller and Renfroe.  With Dameon Pierce, the Texans could keep it close.

Seattle Seahawks (+6.5) @ Los Angeles Chargers - The Seahawks had a poor showing in the passing game last week but all they do is seem to win as their defense found a way to win it for them.  The Chargers receivers are still banged up.

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) @ San Francisco 49ers- The 49ers did acquire Christian McCaffrey but their defense isn't clicking yet and could struggle to slow down Patrick Mahomes.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+7) @ Miami Dolphins - The Dolphins should win although perhaps the Steelers can keep it within a touchdown.


Chicago Bears @ New England Patriots (-8) - I would take the Patriots up to 15 points here against a below average Bears offense.  


Week 6 Against the Spread - 6-8

Week 6 Straight Up - 7-7

2022 Against the spread - 45-47-2

2022 Straight up - 53-41

2021 Against the Spread- 151-127-1

2021 Straight Up- 162-101-1
2021 Locks - 10-5

2020 Against the Spread- 124-140-6
2020 Week Straight Up - 173-97-1
2020 Locks- 24-24-2

2019 Season Against the Spread- 128-113-3
2019 Season Straight Up- 158-103
2019 Locks - 21-19-2
2020 Postseason against the Spread- 8-3
2020 Postseason Straight Up- 7-4


2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110 


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Sunday, October 16, 2022

2022 NFL Week 6 Picks

San Francisco (-5.5) @ Atlanta Falcons - The Falcons are undefeated against the spread so far this season and last week they were without Kyle Pitts and Patterson.  This week the 49ers come to town coming off a whooping of Baker Mayfield.

New England Patriots (-3) @ Cleveland Browns-  Jacoby Brissett is coming off a nice win against the Chargers.  He goes against his former team where Coach Hoodie is expected to draw up an effective game plan after he slowed down Jared Goff and the Lions last week.


New York Jets (+7) @ Green Bay Packers-  The Packers haven't put away lesser opponents like the Giants and Jaguars and there are questions whether they can complete one against the Jets.  Of course, they can like they did against the Bears but the Jets are surprisingly frisky the last couple of weeks although they weren't challenged last week when the Dolphins lost Bridgewater to an injury.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+2) @ Indianapolis Colts- The Colts are coming off a surprise win against the Broncos, mostly due to Denver's ineptitude.   The Jaguars are coming off a surprising loss to the Texans.   The Colts will be motivated to put away the Jaguars after their week 2 loss although it is possible the Jaguars do match up well with the Colts.  Still, James Robinson has not really gotten going the last few weeks

Minnesota Vikings (-3) @ Miami Dolphins - The Vikings are 4-1 this season and go against former QB Terry Bridgewater.   One thing that is concerning is whether Bridgewater can finish the game as he exited the game with a concussion.   For some reason I like Minnesota here which means that somehow I'll be disappointed when Kirk Cousins has a typical inconsistent performance.

Cincinnati Bengals(-2) @ New Orleans Saints- Taysom Hill trick plays is what got it done against Seattle last week although the Bengals may be more equipped to slow down Hill considering they did a good job slowing Lamar Jackson last week.   


Baltimore Ravens (-5) @ New York Giants -  This is an interesting matchup where the Giants seem to be a well coached the Ravens sometimes can't get out of their own way especially since they are unable to get their running backs going such as JK Dobbins.   Their defense though did hold up surprisingly well against the Bengals although a no show from Tee Higgins may have contributed to that.   I expect Lamar to have a bounce back week and I'm not sure if the Giants can keep pace.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8) @ Pittsburgh Steelers-  Not sure what happened in Tampa that even allowed the game to get that close that resulted in a controversial roughing the passing play that Tom Brady and the Bucs benefited from.  Either way, the Steelers line is especially low considering how anemic their offense has been especially since Najee Harris is only averaging 3 yards per carry.  Can Kenny Picket get it going?  Maybe but he'll have his work cut against this Bucs defense.

Carolina Panthers (+10.5) @ Los Angeles Rams- The Rams are due for a get right game against a team that just fired their head coach.  Although sometimes teams do play better when their head coach is fired so maybe the Panthers can cover here.

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks (+3) -  The Cardinals blundered away an opportunity to get to overtime against the Philadelphia Eagles.  Their defense surprisingly held up well against the Eagles especially in the run game.  This game is a toss up especially since Seattle's offense has been clicking and Geno Smith looks better than Russell Wilson so far this season.  I think the Seahawks can actually put away the Cardinals, at least this version of the Cardinals without DeAndre Hopkins.

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs (+2) - Perhaps people think that the Bills are due for revenge although the Bills may not be as dominant as they were against the Steelers last week.  For now I'll take the Chiefs and the points especially since they are playing at home.

Dallas Cowboys (+5) @ Philadelphia Eagles -  Dallas's defense may be the toughest that Jalen Hurts has played all season.  I expect this game to be close although the Eagles pulling it out seems like the likely outcome.

Denver Broncos (+5) @ Los Angeles Chargers -  Both teams are coming off disappointing losses.  While Denver can't repeat the formula of running the ball like the Browns did the previous week especially without Javonte William, the defense can keep it close although the Chargers may pull it out eventually.


Week 4 Against the Spread - 7-8-1

Week 3 Straight Up - 11-5

2022 Against the spread - 39-39-2

2022 Straight up - 46-34

2021 Against the Spread- 151-127-1

2021 Straight Up- 162-101-1
2021 Locks - 10-5

2020 Against the Spread- 124-140-6
2020 Week Straight Up - 173-97-1
2020 Locks- 24-24-2

2019 Season Against the Spread- 128-113-3
2019 Season Straight Up- 158-103
2019 Locks - 21-19-2
2020 Postseason against the Spread- 8-3
2020 Postseason Straight Up- 7-4


2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110 



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Sunday, October 9, 2022

2022 Week 5 Picks

 Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills (-14) - The rookie Kenny Pickett makes his debut against the 4th best defense. Najee Harris is only averaging 3.5 yards per carry. Bills coming off a close win against the Ravens and look to take care of business at home against a young Steelers team.

Detroit Lions (+3) @ New England Patriots - Goff has been great this season but could struggle on the road.  Armon St. Brown is active while the Patriots are still without Jakobi Myers.   

Chicago Bears (+7) @ Minnesota Vikings - David Montgomery looks likely to come back against a Vikings team that has struggled lately.  Fields is only averaging around 8.5 completions per game.  

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets (+3) - Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle are both banged up as Terry Bridgewater fills in.  Jets look to take one against their division rival.


Los Angeles Rams @ Dallas Cowboys (+4.5) - Can Cooper Rush keep it going against the Rams defensive front?  Dallas will loo to slow down the Rams offense which hasn't gotten it going on the ground.  

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-7) - Jacksonville has struggled containing running backs this week but so have the Texans who have allowed a league worst 172 yards per week on the ground. 

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8.5) - Tight end Kyle Pitts is questionable. The Bucs are looking to make up for last week's blowout against the Chiefs. Chris Godwin is back in the lineup for Tampa while Julio Jones is out. Tom Brady is 10-0 against Atlanta in his career including that Super Bowl comeback. 

Tennessee Titans (+2.5) @ Washington Commanders- Commanders defensive line will have to play well against Derrick Henry; the Commanders have done well containing the run but are one of the worst passing defenses. Wentz will have to pick it up against a below average passing defense. 

Seattle Seahawks (+5.5) @ New Orleans Saints - The Saints defense has been good but Geno Smith  has been efficient for the Seattle. Michael Thomas is out along with Jameis Winston  

San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) @ Carolina Panthers -  The Panthers' defense has been solid lately and Trent Williams, the 49ers top offensive lineman, remains out.  Still, the 49ers were able to dominate last week without him.  

Philadelphia Eagles (-5) @ Arizona Cardinals - While the Eagles rush defense has not been efficient, the Cardinals pass defense has been even worse.  Plus the Eagles rush defense may not be all that bad as they contained James Robinson last week.  

Cincinnati Bengals (-3) @ Baltimore Ravens - This could be a high scoring game if last year is any indication.  The Ravens rush defense has been relatively high scoring 

Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs (-7) -  Patrick Mahomes did get on track vs the top rated Tampa defense last week.  Complacency could be an issue for the Chiefs as they failed to cover the last 2 weeks prior to that game against the Chargers and Colts- although the Raiders do look disappointing.


Week 3 Against the Spread - 8-7-1

Week 3 Straight Up - 11-5

2022 Against the spread - 32-31-1

2022 Straight up - 35-29

2021 Against the Spread- 151-127-1

2021 Straight Up- 162-101-1
2021 Locks - 10-5

2020 Against the Spread- 124-140-6
2020 Week Straight Up - 173-97-1
2020 Locks- 24-24-2

2019 Season Against the Spread- 128-113-3
2019 Season Straight Up- 158-103
2019 Locks - 21-19-2
2020 Postseason against the Spread- 8-3
2020 Postseason Straight Up- 7-4


2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110 

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Sunday, October 2, 2022

2022 Week 4 Picks

New Orleans Saints (+2.5) vs Minnesota Vikings -  The Saints are coming off a loss.  Kirk Cousins has not been sharp and the Saints defense which has been playing well will look to slow the Vikings offense down especially with Dalvin Cook banged up.

Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys (-3) - Perhaps Washington could get it going against Dallas.  Although the Commanders have struggled since the first half of the Jaguars game.  Wentz's decision making needs to improve for Washington to come away with a victory.

Chicago Bears @ New York Giants (-3) -  One of these teams will be 3-1 after this week.   The Giants couldn't hang with the Cowboys.   These teams are evenly matched.  If the weather is wet, it will likely favor the Giants as they will rely on Barkley while he Bears are without David Montgomery.  Still, Khalil Herbert is no slouch, as he had 2 touchdowns when Montgomery left last week.

New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) - The Steelers defense has been alright but their offense has struggled with Mitch Trubiskly under center   Still, perhaps the Jets might struggle if Wilson plays as he would be rusty coming off his injury.  

Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles-  This is probably the game of the week.  The Jaguars could be 3-0 if not for a slow start against the Commanders.  The Eagles have taken care of their opponents in the first half although perhaps the Jaguars can make a game of it especially if they can get a pass rush on Hurts.  Zay Jones is out so the Jaguars will need to rely more on James Robinson.

Buffalo Bills (-3) @ Baltimore Ravens -  The Bills will try to make up for last week's loss against the Dolphins.  The Ravens also lost to the same Dolphins team.  Lamar Jackson has been playing great although the Bills could present problems for Jackson especially if the game becomes a high scoring affair.


Seattle Seahawks (+4.5) @ Detroit Lions -  The Lions could have asily walked away with a win against the Vikings but they collapsed down the stretch.  The Seahawks while coming off a win don't exactly inspire confidence on the road although they could cover because the Lions are dealing with injuries to their top wide receivers Armon St Brown and DJ Chark and their top running back Deandre Swift.  Jamaal Williams could fill in nicely for Swift but I'm not sure if Jared Goff can keep the passing game going.  Still, it is an early start for which is a disadvantage for Seattle.


Tennessee Titans (+3.5) @ Indianapolis Colts-  The Colts somehow pulled off a comeback win against the Chiefs.  The Tia are also coming off a win where Derrick Henry finally got it going.   This may be a low scoring game where the Titans cold keep it close although Henry will have his work cut out for him given the Colt's run defense has been strong especially last week against the Chiefs.


Los Angeles Chargers @ Houston Texans (+5) - The Chargers are dealing with a few injuries.  Herbert is still banged up with a rib injury and Keenan Allen is out.  Plus the Chargers suffered a few injuries on the defensive side.   The Texans lost badly last week but could get it going at home. 


Cleveland Browns @ Atlanta Falcons (+1.5) -  The Falcons did have a good showing against the Seahawks and could play well against a Browns team which is 2-1 but Altlata has a decent homefield advantage.  Cordalle Patterson known for his special teams has been playing like a top 5 running back for the Falcons.   Although Nick Chubb has been playing like the best running back in the NFL.  


Arizona Cardinals (+1) @ Carolina Panthers-  The Cardinals offense laid an egg against the Rams.  Still, the Panthers defense has not been stellar.  It is still far from a lock that the Cardinals will win because the Panthers could have the advantage from the coaching sidelines.  With Rondalle Moore and AJ Green out, the Cardinals will not have a receiver who is over 6 foot tall.


Denver Broncos (+1.5) @ Las Vegas Raiders - The Raiders and Broncos both had high expectations but both teams have not lived up to the hype.   Russell Wilson has looked pedestrian and Derek Carr has not looked great even with the addition of Davante Adams from the offseason.   Hunter Renfrow is out which is leading to me taking the Broncos here even though their play as of late is not inspiring.


New England Patriots @ Green Bay Packers (-10) -  The Patriots will be without Mac Jones.  Brian Hoyer, his replacement, is 1-12 in his last 13 starts.  The Packers usually take advantage of below average teams at Lambeau although Bill Bellicheck could devise a scheme to slow down Aaron Rodgers.  I'm just not sure if he can gameplan the same way for Aaron Jones.


Kansas City Chiefs (-2) @Tampa Bay Buccaneers - This is a super bowl rematch from a few years ago and it could potentially play out as the super bowl matchup this season.   Both teams are coming off losses, the Bucs will get Mike Evans back.   The Chiefs need this game more than Tampa and I expect them to play with more desperation.


Los Angeles Rams (+2.5) @ San Francisco 49ers - San Francisco did look ordinary against the Broncos who contained the 49ers throughout the game.   That being said, the 49ers usually play the Rams close given that they are division rivals.  I expect a slug fest and if the 49ers want to be a serious contender for the division, they are going to have take care of business at home.  Although it could play out that the road team wins each game.


Week 3 Against the Spread - 8-8

Week 3 Straight Up - 6-10

2022 Against the spread - 24-24

2022 Straight up - 24-24

2021 Against the Spread- 151-127-1

2021 Straight Up- 162-101-1
2021 Locks - 10-5

2020 Against the Spread- 124-140-6
2020 Week Straight Up - 173-97-1
2020 Locks- 24-24-2

2019 Season Against the Spread- 128-113-3
2019 Season Straight Up- 158-103
2019 Locks - 21-19-2
2020 Postseason against the Spread- 8-3
2020 Postseason Straight Up- 7-4


2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110 

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Sunday, September 25, 2022

2022 Week 3 Picks



 Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins (+5.5) - The Bills last took care of the Titans on Monday night by a fairly comfortable margin.  Still, the Dolphins are a division rival who just had an impressive victory against the Ravens.  The Dolphins defense didn't look great though for a majority of the game other than the 4th quarter.  The Bills will likely convert on the short yardage situations to pull them ahead although perhaps this will be a close game as it is in Miami. 


Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) @ Washington Commanders-  Carson Wentz faces his former team.  It will be interesting to see how if more Washington fans than usual will show up as the Eagles fans have been outnumbering them in recent matchups at Fed Ex field.   Overall, Wentz has been making some questionable decisions although it will be very hard to shut down Washington's receiving corp, the Eagles offense appears to be one of the best in the league and Washington will have to show a much better effort than they have in the past 2 weeks.  


Kansas City Chiefs  @ Indianapolis Colts (+6.5) -  The Colts have looked like tone of the worst teams in the league to start off the season although they weren't helped on the injury front when number 1 wide receiver Michael Pittman was ruled out who is scheduled to make his return this week.   



Detroit Lions (+6) @ Minnesota Vikings -  The Lions looked frisky last week against Washington while the Vikings struggled to maintain a semblance of a gameplan against the Eagles who the Lions actually only lost by 3 points.  The Vikings may rebound from a  bad performance although through 2 weeks, the Lions look like the better team. The only thing that gives me pause is the coaching staff and perhaps Cousins will respond from a very poor showing against Philadelphia.


Houston Texans (+3) @ Chicago Bears-  The Bears passing offense has been anemic through week.  While it wasn't aided by the rain in week 1, quarterback Justin Fields wasn't good at passing the ball downfield either.   Houston has looed much better than expected, so far covering twice and may actually come away with a win.


Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5) @ Tennessee Titans - These may be the most disappointing teams in the AFC along with the Cincinnati Bengals.  Derrick Henry still is getting warmed up while the Raiders had a 20-0 lead at halftime against the Arizona Cardinal, only o let it wilt away in an overtime loss.   I suppose the Raiders have at least shown signs of life, and if Henry can't get it going, the Titans offense appears to be very limited without AJ Brown. 


Jacksonville Jaguars (+7) @ Los Angeles Chargers  -  The Jaguars are coming off a nice win against the Colts and if not for a poor showing in the first half in Washington, perhaps the Jaguars would be 2-0.  The Chargers are coming off a loss to the Chiefs where they kept it close due to some spectacular 4th down conversions by Herbert and the Chargers offense.  Although Herbert's ability to play through ribs may prevent the Chargers from winning this game by a comfortable margin.


Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) @ Arizona Cardinals-  Kyler Murray did enough to take the Cardinals past the Raiders.    The Rams have not looked as elite against the Falcons although their offense is still competent with Cooper Kupp being the most consistent receiver.  


Baltimore Ravens (-3) @ New England Patriots - The Ravens should get a boost from the return of JJ Dobbins.  It could be a close game if the Patriots can slow down Lamar Jackson although if this game become a high scoring affair, the Patriots will be unlikely to keep up.  

New Orleans Saints (-3) @ Carolina Panthers - The Saints are looking to rebound after a loss to the Bucs against a the Panthers who have been struggling this season.  The Saints defense has looked sharp plus the Saints wideouts should get it going against a Panthers defense that still is inconsistent despite an adequate showing against the Giants last week.  


Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5) -  The Bucs being without Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Julio Jones does even the playing field a little bit.  Although Brady does seem to be motivated against Aaron Rodgers who has not always come to play in these marquee quarterback matchups.  The key to the game will be if Aaron Jones can get it going against a pretty stout Bucs' defense that has already made the Cowboys and Saints look pedestrian. 


Atlanta Falcons @ Seattle Seahawks (-2) - Neither of these teams look likely to make the playoffs.  The Seahawks did win a nice game against the Broncos facing their former quarterback, but really let the game get away against the 49ers the following week.   The Falcons in the meantime have kept it close against the Saints and the Rams.   Atlanta may be the better tea although homefield for the Seahawks makes this far from a guarantee that they will win this one.


Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Jets (+4.5) -  The Jets did just take care of the Browns last week although that was due to some mild incompetence by Nick Chubb who did not giving himself on a touchdown scoring play to ice the game.   The Browns did appear to run the ball extremely well while the Jets passing is aided by a solid group of wide receiver where Flacco can connect with them enough if the Bengals don't provide enough passing pressure.  The Bengals are playing with a sense of desperation although this line seems a bit high given that the Jets did beat the Bengals last season.   


San Francisco 49ers (-1.5) @ Denver Broncos-  Russell Wilson and the Broncos offense has not looked sharp against either the Texans or the Seahawks and neither defense is supposed to be elite.  The 49ers do have familiarity against Russell Wilson.   The potential for the 49ers to come away with with a win increased once Jimmy Garoppolo has been re-inserted back into the lineup.


Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (-2.5) -  The Giants surprise win in week 1 lead to an expected win against the Carolina Panthers.  The Giants are actually the favorites here without Dak, although the Cowboys did loo sharp against the Bengals.  Still, the Giants defense should contain the Cowboys running attack after they made Derrick Henry look pedestrian and Christian McCaffrey only had an average game.  


Week 2 against the Spread - 7-9  
Week 2 Straight Up - 10-6

2022 Against the spread - 15-17
2022 Straight up - 18-14

2021 Against the Spread- 151-127-1

2021 Straight Up- 162-101-1
2021 Locks - 10-5

2020 Against the Spread- 124-140-6
2020 Week Straight Up - 173-97-1
2020 Locks- 24-24-2

2019 Season Against the Spread- 128-113-3
2019 Season Straight Up- 158-103
2019 Locks - 21-19-2
2020 Postseason against the Spread- 8-3
2020 Postseason Straight Up- 7-4


2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110 

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Sunday, September 18, 2022

2022 Week 2 Picks



Joe Flacco wants to prove he's elite again by helping the Jets avoid going 0-2

New York Jets @ Cleveland Browns (-6) -  I can't in good conscience pick the Jets as long as Joe Flacco is starting.  The Browns look to go 2-0 without Deshaun Watson.


Washington Football Team @ Detroit Lions (-2.5) - Both teams covered last week.   Washington managed to hold onto a lead against the Jaguars although there were signs of a collapse.  The Lions only lost the game 38-35 although perhaps they were aided by the fact the Eagles had little to play for as the Lions managed to outscore the Eagles 17-0.   Wentz's inconsistency scares me in this one, then again his counterpart Jared Goff isn't inspiring.   

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) @ New Orleans Saints-  The Saints have seemed to have had Tom Brady's number lately.  The Saints did struggle against the Falcons but did manage to pull it together in the 2nd half.  Jameis Winston looked sharp.  That being said, his play from game to game has been inconsistent- plus Alvin Kamara is out for this game.  

Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants (-2.5) -  Saquon Barkely should be in line for an even bigger game against a Panthers team that didn't take care of its business against a Browns team the previous week.

New England Patriots  @ Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.5) - The Patriots have been effective at slowing down the Steelers. That being said the Steelers did look sharp in an unexpected win against the Bengals.  


Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+4) - The Colts season last week was ended by the Jaguars in a meaningless game.  The Jaguars offense does look a bit spring with the the return of James Robinson.  Michael Pittman for the Colts is also out.

Miami Dolphins @ Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) - Tyreek Hill has given the Ravens trouble in the past although the Ravens may be able to slow him down enough.  It will be interesting to see how the Dolphins play on the road against the Ravens who typically hold up well at home.

Atlanta Falcons (+10) @ Los Angeles Rams-  The Falcons could falter a bit on the road although they did manage to do enough to keep it close against the Saints last week.  This is the biggest point spread of the week and people are assuming to the Rams will get back on track after a long week to prepare.  Although there inability to run the ball was concerning against the Bills.  

Seattle Seahawks (+10) @ San Francisco 49ers - Perhaps the Seahawks can keep it relatively close against a division rival.   Especially since the 49ers will be without Elijah Mitchell.  The Seahawks will have to avoid an emotional letdown after just beating Russell Wilson last week, although their defense did seem solid in that game.

Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5) @ Dallas Cowboys - Without Dak Prescott, this could be a tough one for the Cowboys to overcome, especially since the Bengals want to avoid going 0-2 after their surprising playoff run last season.

Houston Texans (+10) @ Denver Broncos- The Texans did play the Colts tight for most of the week while the Broncos are still looking to get things in gear for Russell Wilson.  As of right now, it may be best to see see how the Bronco's offense plays out before trusting them to cover here.

Arizona Cardinals (+6) @ Las Vegas Raiders-  The Cardinals looked sloppy against the Chiefs although their defense is slightly better than the Raiders.  Look for Kyler Murray to play better after a poor showing in week 1.

Chicago Bears (+10) @ Green Bay Packers -  The Packers didn't really look up to it against their week 1 matchup against the Vikings   Their inability to slow down Justin Jefferson is concerning.  Although the Bears have struggled in Lambeau, they are coming off a nice win against the 49ers in week 1. 


Tennessee Titans (+10) @ Buffalo Bills - For some reason the Titans have played the Bills close.  Although this time it is in Buffalo.  Still, the Titans need to show a much better effort than they did against the Giants to keep it close.

Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles - Justin Jefferson looked great against the Green Bay Packers.   The Eagles did manage to beat the Lions last week and AJ Brown could present more problems than  whatever the Packers had to throw last week.  Still, the Vikings could come away with a road victory here.  


Week 1 against the Spread - 8-8  
Week 1 Straight Up - 8-8

2021 Against the Spread- 151-127-1

2021 Straight Up- 162-101-1
2021 Locks - 10-5

2020 Against the Spread- 124-140-6
2020 Week Straight Up - 173-97-1
2020 Locks- 24-24-2

2019 Season Against the Spread- 128-113-3
2019 Season Straight Up- 158-103
2019 Locks - 21-19-2
2020 Postseason against the Spread- 8-3
2020 Postseason Straight Up- 7-4


2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110 

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