Sunday, September 25, 2022

2022 Week 3 Picks



 Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins (+5.5) - The Bills last took care of the Titans on Monday night by a fairly comfortable margin.  Still, the Dolphins are a division rival who just had an impressive victory against the Ravens.  The Dolphins defense didn't look great though for a majority of the game other than the 4th quarter.  The Bills will likely convert on the short yardage situations to pull them ahead although perhaps this will be a close game as it is in Miami. 


Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) @ Washington Commanders-  Carson Wentz faces his former team.  It will be interesting to see how if more Washington fans than usual will show up as the Eagles fans have been outnumbering them in recent matchups at Fed Ex field.   Overall, Wentz has been making some questionable decisions although it will be very hard to shut down Washington's receiving corp, the Eagles offense appears to be one of the best in the league and Washington will have to show a much better effort than they have in the past 2 weeks.  


Kansas City Chiefs  @ Indianapolis Colts (+6.5) -  The Colts have looked like tone of the worst teams in the league to start off the season although they weren't helped on the injury front when number 1 wide receiver Michael Pittman was ruled out who is scheduled to make his return this week.   



Detroit Lions (+6) @ Minnesota Vikings -  The Lions looked frisky last week against Washington while the Vikings struggled to maintain a semblance of a gameplan against the Eagles who the Lions actually only lost by 3 points.  The Vikings may rebound from a  bad performance although through 2 weeks, the Lions look like the better team. The only thing that gives me pause is the coaching staff and perhaps Cousins will respond from a very poor showing against Philadelphia.


Houston Texans (+3) @ Chicago Bears-  The Bears passing offense has been anemic through week.  While it wasn't aided by the rain in week 1, quarterback Justin Fields wasn't good at passing the ball downfield either.   Houston has looed much better than expected, so far covering twice and may actually come away with a win.


Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5) @ Tennessee Titans - These may be the most disappointing teams in the AFC along with the Cincinnati Bengals.  Derrick Henry still is getting warmed up while the Raiders had a 20-0 lead at halftime against the Arizona Cardinal, only o let it wilt away in an overtime loss.   I suppose the Raiders have at least shown signs of life, and if Henry can't get it going, the Titans offense appears to be very limited without AJ Brown. 


Jacksonville Jaguars (+7) @ Los Angeles Chargers  -  The Jaguars are coming off a nice win against the Colts and if not for a poor showing in the first half in Washington, perhaps the Jaguars would be 2-0.  The Chargers are coming off a loss to the Chiefs where they kept it close due to some spectacular 4th down conversions by Herbert and the Chargers offense.  Although Herbert's ability to play through ribs may prevent the Chargers from winning this game by a comfortable margin.


Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) @ Arizona Cardinals-  Kyler Murray did enough to take the Cardinals past the Raiders.    The Rams have not looked as elite against the Falcons although their offense is still competent with Cooper Kupp being the most consistent receiver.  


Baltimore Ravens (-3) @ New England Patriots - The Ravens should get a boost from the return of JJ Dobbins.  It could be a close game if the Patriots can slow down Lamar Jackson although if this game become a high scoring affair, the Patriots will be unlikely to keep up.  

New Orleans Saints (-3) @ Carolina Panthers - The Saints are looking to rebound after a loss to the Bucs against a the Panthers who have been struggling this season.  The Saints defense has looked sharp plus the Saints wideouts should get it going against a Panthers defense that still is inconsistent despite an adequate showing against the Giants last week.  


Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5) -  The Bucs being without Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Julio Jones does even the playing field a little bit.  Although Brady does seem to be motivated against Aaron Rodgers who has not always come to play in these marquee quarterback matchups.  The key to the game will be if Aaron Jones can get it going against a pretty stout Bucs' defense that has already made the Cowboys and Saints look pedestrian. 


Atlanta Falcons @ Seattle Seahawks (-2) - Neither of these teams look likely to make the playoffs.  The Seahawks did win a nice game against the Broncos facing their former quarterback, but really let the game get away against the 49ers the following week.   The Falcons in the meantime have kept it close against the Saints and the Rams.   Atlanta may be the better tea although homefield for the Seahawks makes this far from a guarantee that they will win this one.


Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Jets (+4.5) -  The Jets did just take care of the Browns last week although that was due to some mild incompetence by Nick Chubb who did not giving himself on a touchdown scoring play to ice the game.   The Browns did appear to run the ball extremely well while the Jets passing is aided by a solid group of wide receiver where Flacco can connect with them enough if the Bengals don't provide enough passing pressure.  The Bengals are playing with a sense of desperation although this line seems a bit high given that the Jets did beat the Bengals last season.   


San Francisco 49ers (-1.5) @ Denver Broncos-  Russell Wilson and the Broncos offense has not looked sharp against either the Texans or the Seahawks and neither defense is supposed to be elite.  The 49ers do have familiarity against Russell Wilson.   The potential for the 49ers to come away with with a win increased once Jimmy Garoppolo has been re-inserted back into the lineup.


Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (-2.5) -  The Giants surprise win in week 1 lead to an expected win against the Carolina Panthers.  The Giants are actually the favorites here without Dak, although the Cowboys did loo sharp against the Bengals.  Still, the Giants defense should contain the Cowboys running attack after they made Derrick Henry look pedestrian and Christian McCaffrey only had an average game.  


Week 2 against the Spread - 7-9  
Week 2 Straight Up - 10-6

2022 Against the spread - 15-17
2022 Straight up - 18-14

2021 Against the Spread- 151-127-1

2021 Straight Up- 162-101-1
2021 Locks - 10-5

2020 Against the Spread- 124-140-6
2020 Week Straight Up - 173-97-1
2020 Locks- 24-24-2

2019 Season Against the Spread- 128-113-3
2019 Season Straight Up- 158-103
2019 Locks - 21-19-2
2020 Postseason against the Spread- 8-3
2020 Postseason Straight Up- 7-4


2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110 

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