Sunday, October 2, 2022

2022 Week 4 Picks

New Orleans Saints (+2.5) vs Minnesota Vikings -  The Saints are coming off a loss.  Kirk Cousins has not been sharp and the Saints defense which has been playing well will look to slow the Vikings offense down especially with Dalvin Cook banged up.

Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys (-3) - Perhaps Washington could get it going against Dallas.  Although the Commanders have struggled since the first half of the Jaguars game.  Wentz's decision making needs to improve for Washington to come away with a victory.

Chicago Bears @ New York Giants (-3) -  One of these teams will be 3-1 after this week.   The Giants couldn't hang with the Cowboys.   These teams are evenly matched.  If the weather is wet, it will likely favor the Giants as they will rely on Barkley while he Bears are without David Montgomery.  Still, Khalil Herbert is no slouch, as he had 2 touchdowns when Montgomery left last week.

New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) - The Steelers defense has been alright but their offense has struggled with Mitch Trubiskly under center   Still, perhaps the Jets might struggle if Wilson plays as he would be rusty coming off his injury.  

Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles-  This is probably the game of the week.  The Jaguars could be 3-0 if not for a slow start against the Commanders.  The Eagles have taken care of their opponents in the first half although perhaps the Jaguars can make a game of it especially if they can get a pass rush on Hurts.  Zay Jones is out so the Jaguars will need to rely more on James Robinson.

Buffalo Bills (-3) @ Baltimore Ravens -  The Bills will try to make up for last week's loss against the Dolphins.  The Ravens also lost to the same Dolphins team.  Lamar Jackson has been playing great although the Bills could present problems for Jackson especially if the game becomes a high scoring affair.


Seattle Seahawks (+4.5) @ Detroit Lions -  The Lions could have asily walked away with a win against the Vikings but they collapsed down the stretch.  The Seahawks while coming off a win don't exactly inspire confidence on the road although they could cover because the Lions are dealing with injuries to their top wide receivers Armon St Brown and DJ Chark and their top running back Deandre Swift.  Jamaal Williams could fill in nicely for Swift but I'm not sure if Jared Goff can keep the passing game going.  Still, it is an early start for which is a disadvantage for Seattle.


Tennessee Titans (+3.5) @ Indianapolis Colts-  The Colts somehow pulled off a comeback win against the Chiefs.  The Tia are also coming off a win where Derrick Henry finally got it going.   This may be a low scoring game where the Titans cold keep it close although Henry will have his work cut out for him given the Colt's run defense has been strong especially last week against the Chiefs.


Los Angeles Chargers @ Houston Texans (+5) - The Chargers are dealing with a few injuries.  Herbert is still banged up with a rib injury and Keenan Allen is out.  Plus the Chargers suffered a few injuries on the defensive side.   The Texans lost badly last week but could get it going at home. 


Cleveland Browns @ Atlanta Falcons (+1.5) -  The Falcons did have a good showing against the Seahawks and could play well against a Browns team which is 2-1 but Altlata has a decent homefield advantage.  Cordalle Patterson known for his special teams has been playing like a top 5 running back for the Falcons.   Although Nick Chubb has been playing like the best running back in the NFL.  


Arizona Cardinals (+1) @ Carolina Panthers-  The Cardinals offense laid an egg against the Rams.  Still, the Panthers defense has not been stellar.  It is still far from a lock that the Cardinals will win because the Panthers could have the advantage from the coaching sidelines.  With Rondalle Moore and AJ Green out, the Cardinals will not have a receiver who is over 6 foot tall.


Denver Broncos (+1.5) @ Las Vegas Raiders - The Raiders and Broncos both had high expectations but both teams have not lived up to the hype.   Russell Wilson has looked pedestrian and Derek Carr has not looked great even with the addition of Davante Adams from the offseason.   Hunter Renfrow is out which is leading to me taking the Broncos here even though their play as of late is not inspiring.


New England Patriots @ Green Bay Packers (-10) -  The Patriots will be without Mac Jones.  Brian Hoyer, his replacement, is 1-12 in his last 13 starts.  The Packers usually take advantage of below average teams at Lambeau although Bill Bellicheck could devise a scheme to slow down Aaron Rodgers.  I'm just not sure if he can gameplan the same way for Aaron Jones.


Kansas City Chiefs (-2) @Tampa Bay Buccaneers - This is a super bowl rematch from a few years ago and it could potentially play out as the super bowl matchup this season.   Both teams are coming off losses, the Bucs will get Mike Evans back.   The Chiefs need this game more than Tampa and I expect them to play with more desperation.


Los Angeles Rams (+2.5) @ San Francisco 49ers - San Francisco did look ordinary against the Broncos who contained the 49ers throughout the game.   That being said, the 49ers usually play the Rams close given that they are division rivals.  I expect a slug fest and if the 49ers want to be a serious contender for the division, they are going to have take care of business at home.  Although it could play out that the road team wins each game.


Week 3 Against the Spread - 8-8

Week 3 Straight Up - 6-10

2022 Against the spread - 24-24

2022 Straight up - 24-24

2021 Against the Spread- 151-127-1

2021 Straight Up- 162-101-1
2021 Locks - 10-5

2020 Against the Spread- 124-140-6
2020 Week Straight Up - 173-97-1
2020 Locks- 24-24-2

2019 Season Against the Spread- 128-113-3
2019 Season Straight Up- 158-103
2019 Locks - 21-19-2
2020 Postseason against the Spread- 8-3
2020 Postseason Straight Up- 7-4


2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110 

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