Sunday, October 16, 2022

2022 NFL Week 6 Picks

San Francisco (-5.5) @ Atlanta Falcons - The Falcons are undefeated against the spread so far this season and last week they were without Kyle Pitts and Patterson.  This week the 49ers come to town coming off a whooping of Baker Mayfield.

New England Patriots (-3) @ Cleveland Browns-  Jacoby Brissett is coming off a nice win against the Chargers.  He goes against his former team where Coach Hoodie is expected to draw up an effective game plan after he slowed down Jared Goff and the Lions last week.


New York Jets (+7) @ Green Bay Packers-  The Packers haven't put away lesser opponents like the Giants and Jaguars and there are questions whether they can complete one against the Jets.  Of course, they can like they did against the Bears but the Jets are surprisingly frisky the last couple of weeks although they weren't challenged last week when the Dolphins lost Bridgewater to an injury.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+2) @ Indianapolis Colts- The Colts are coming off a surprise win against the Broncos, mostly due to Denver's ineptitude.   The Jaguars are coming off a surprising loss to the Texans.   The Colts will be motivated to put away the Jaguars after their week 2 loss although it is possible the Jaguars do match up well with the Colts.  Still, James Robinson has not really gotten going the last few weeks

Minnesota Vikings (-3) @ Miami Dolphins - The Vikings are 4-1 this season and go against former QB Terry Bridgewater.   One thing that is concerning is whether Bridgewater can finish the game as he exited the game with a concussion.   For some reason I like Minnesota here which means that somehow I'll be disappointed when Kirk Cousins has a typical inconsistent performance.

Cincinnati Bengals(-2) @ New Orleans Saints- Taysom Hill trick plays is what got it done against Seattle last week although the Bengals may be more equipped to slow down Hill considering they did a good job slowing Lamar Jackson last week.   


Baltimore Ravens (-5) @ New York Giants -  This is an interesting matchup where the Giants seem to be a well coached the Ravens sometimes can't get out of their own way especially since they are unable to get their running backs going such as JK Dobbins.   Their defense though did hold up surprisingly well against the Bengals although a no show from Tee Higgins may have contributed to that.   I expect Lamar to have a bounce back week and I'm not sure if the Giants can keep pace.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8) @ Pittsburgh Steelers-  Not sure what happened in Tampa that even allowed the game to get that close that resulted in a controversial roughing the passing play that Tom Brady and the Bucs benefited from.  Either way, the Steelers line is especially low considering how anemic their offense has been especially since Najee Harris is only averaging 3 yards per carry.  Can Kenny Picket get it going?  Maybe but he'll have his work cut against this Bucs defense.

Carolina Panthers (+10.5) @ Los Angeles Rams- The Rams are due for a get right game against a team that just fired their head coach.  Although sometimes teams do play better when their head coach is fired so maybe the Panthers can cover here.

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks (+3) -  The Cardinals blundered away an opportunity to get to overtime against the Philadelphia Eagles.  Their defense surprisingly held up well against the Eagles especially in the run game.  This game is a toss up especially since Seattle's offense has been clicking and Geno Smith looks better than Russell Wilson so far this season.  I think the Seahawks can actually put away the Cardinals, at least this version of the Cardinals without DeAndre Hopkins.

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs (+2) - Perhaps people think that the Bills are due for revenge although the Bills may not be as dominant as they were against the Steelers last week.  For now I'll take the Chiefs and the points especially since they are playing at home.

Dallas Cowboys (+5) @ Philadelphia Eagles -  Dallas's defense may be the toughest that Jalen Hurts has played all season.  I expect this game to be close although the Eagles pulling it out seems like the likely outcome.

Denver Broncos (+5) @ Los Angeles Chargers -  Both teams are coming off disappointing losses.  While Denver can't repeat the formula of running the ball like the Browns did the previous week especially without Javonte William, the defense can keep it close although the Chargers may pull it out eventually.


Week 4 Against the Spread - 7-8-1

Week 3 Straight Up - 11-5

2022 Against the spread - 39-39-2

2022 Straight up - 46-34

2021 Against the Spread- 151-127-1

2021 Straight Up- 162-101-1
2021 Locks - 10-5

2020 Against the Spread- 124-140-6
2020 Week Straight Up - 173-97-1
2020 Locks- 24-24-2

2019 Season Against the Spread- 128-113-3
2019 Season Straight Up- 158-103
2019 Locks - 21-19-2
2020 Postseason against the Spread- 8-3
2020 Postseason Straight Up- 7-4


2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110 



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Sunday, October 9, 2022

2022 Week 5 Picks

 Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills (-14) - The rookie Kenny Pickett makes his debut against the 4th best defense. Najee Harris is only averaging 3.5 yards per carry. Bills coming off a close win against the Ravens and look to take care of business at home against a young Steelers team.

Detroit Lions (+3) @ New England Patriots - Goff has been great this season but could struggle on the road.  Armon St. Brown is active while the Patriots are still without Jakobi Myers.   

Chicago Bears (+7) @ Minnesota Vikings - David Montgomery looks likely to come back against a Vikings team that has struggled lately.  Fields is only averaging around 8.5 completions per game.  

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets (+3) - Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle are both banged up as Terry Bridgewater fills in.  Jets look to take one against their division rival.


Los Angeles Rams @ Dallas Cowboys (+4.5) - Can Cooper Rush keep it going against the Rams defensive front?  Dallas will loo to slow down the Rams offense which hasn't gotten it going on the ground.  

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-7) - Jacksonville has struggled containing running backs this week but so have the Texans who have allowed a league worst 172 yards per week on the ground. 

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8.5) - Tight end Kyle Pitts is questionable. The Bucs are looking to make up for last week's blowout against the Chiefs. Chris Godwin is back in the lineup for Tampa while Julio Jones is out. Tom Brady is 10-0 against Atlanta in his career including that Super Bowl comeback. 

Tennessee Titans (+2.5) @ Washington Commanders- Commanders defensive line will have to play well against Derrick Henry; the Commanders have done well containing the run but are one of the worst passing defenses. Wentz will have to pick it up against a below average passing defense. 

Seattle Seahawks (+5.5) @ New Orleans Saints - The Saints defense has been good but Geno Smith  has been efficient for the Seattle. Michael Thomas is out along with Jameis Winston  

San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) @ Carolina Panthers -  The Panthers' defense has been solid lately and Trent Williams, the 49ers top offensive lineman, remains out.  Still, the 49ers were able to dominate last week without him.  

Philadelphia Eagles (-5) @ Arizona Cardinals - While the Eagles rush defense has not been efficient, the Cardinals pass defense has been even worse.  Plus the Eagles rush defense may not be all that bad as they contained James Robinson last week.  

Cincinnati Bengals (-3) @ Baltimore Ravens - This could be a high scoring game if last year is any indication.  The Ravens rush defense has been relatively high scoring 

Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs (-7) -  Patrick Mahomes did get on track vs the top rated Tampa defense last week.  Complacency could be an issue for the Chiefs as they failed to cover the last 2 weeks prior to that game against the Chargers and Colts- although the Raiders do look disappointing.


Week 3 Against the Spread - 8-7-1

Week 3 Straight Up - 11-5

2022 Against the spread - 32-31-1

2022 Straight up - 35-29

2021 Against the Spread- 151-127-1

2021 Straight Up- 162-101-1
2021 Locks - 10-5

2020 Against the Spread- 124-140-6
2020 Week Straight Up - 173-97-1
2020 Locks- 24-24-2

2019 Season Against the Spread- 128-113-3
2019 Season Straight Up- 158-103
2019 Locks - 21-19-2
2020 Postseason against the Spread- 8-3
2020 Postseason Straight Up- 7-4


2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110 

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Sunday, October 2, 2022

2022 Week 4 Picks

New Orleans Saints (+2.5) vs Minnesota Vikings -  The Saints are coming off a loss.  Kirk Cousins has not been sharp and the Saints defense which has been playing well will look to slow the Vikings offense down especially with Dalvin Cook banged up.

Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys (-3) - Perhaps Washington could get it going against Dallas.  Although the Commanders have struggled since the first half of the Jaguars game.  Wentz's decision making needs to improve for Washington to come away with a victory.

Chicago Bears @ New York Giants (-3) -  One of these teams will be 3-1 after this week.   The Giants couldn't hang with the Cowboys.   These teams are evenly matched.  If the weather is wet, it will likely favor the Giants as they will rely on Barkley while he Bears are without David Montgomery.  Still, Khalil Herbert is no slouch, as he had 2 touchdowns when Montgomery left last week.

New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) - The Steelers defense has been alright but their offense has struggled with Mitch Trubiskly under center   Still, perhaps the Jets might struggle if Wilson plays as he would be rusty coming off his injury.  

Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles-  This is probably the game of the week.  The Jaguars could be 3-0 if not for a slow start against the Commanders.  The Eagles have taken care of their opponents in the first half although perhaps the Jaguars can make a game of it especially if they can get a pass rush on Hurts.  Zay Jones is out so the Jaguars will need to rely more on James Robinson.

Buffalo Bills (-3) @ Baltimore Ravens -  The Bills will try to make up for last week's loss against the Dolphins.  The Ravens also lost to the same Dolphins team.  Lamar Jackson has been playing great although the Bills could present problems for Jackson especially if the game becomes a high scoring affair.


Seattle Seahawks (+4.5) @ Detroit Lions -  The Lions could have asily walked away with a win against the Vikings but they collapsed down the stretch.  The Seahawks while coming off a win don't exactly inspire confidence on the road although they could cover because the Lions are dealing with injuries to their top wide receivers Armon St Brown and DJ Chark and their top running back Deandre Swift.  Jamaal Williams could fill in nicely for Swift but I'm not sure if Jared Goff can keep the passing game going.  Still, it is an early start for which is a disadvantage for Seattle.


Tennessee Titans (+3.5) @ Indianapolis Colts-  The Colts somehow pulled off a comeback win against the Chiefs.  The Tia are also coming off a win where Derrick Henry finally got it going.   This may be a low scoring game where the Titans cold keep it close although Henry will have his work cut out for him given the Colt's run defense has been strong especially last week against the Chiefs.


Los Angeles Chargers @ Houston Texans (+5) - The Chargers are dealing with a few injuries.  Herbert is still banged up with a rib injury and Keenan Allen is out.  Plus the Chargers suffered a few injuries on the defensive side.   The Texans lost badly last week but could get it going at home. 


Cleveland Browns @ Atlanta Falcons (+1.5) -  The Falcons did have a good showing against the Seahawks and could play well against a Browns team which is 2-1 but Altlata has a decent homefield advantage.  Cordalle Patterson known for his special teams has been playing like a top 5 running back for the Falcons.   Although Nick Chubb has been playing like the best running back in the NFL.  


Arizona Cardinals (+1) @ Carolina Panthers-  The Cardinals offense laid an egg against the Rams.  Still, the Panthers defense has not been stellar.  It is still far from a lock that the Cardinals will win because the Panthers could have the advantage from the coaching sidelines.  With Rondalle Moore and AJ Green out, the Cardinals will not have a receiver who is over 6 foot tall.


Denver Broncos (+1.5) @ Las Vegas Raiders - The Raiders and Broncos both had high expectations but both teams have not lived up to the hype.   Russell Wilson has looked pedestrian and Derek Carr has not looked great even with the addition of Davante Adams from the offseason.   Hunter Renfrow is out which is leading to me taking the Broncos here even though their play as of late is not inspiring.


New England Patriots @ Green Bay Packers (-10) -  The Patriots will be without Mac Jones.  Brian Hoyer, his replacement, is 1-12 in his last 13 starts.  The Packers usually take advantage of below average teams at Lambeau although Bill Bellicheck could devise a scheme to slow down Aaron Rodgers.  I'm just not sure if he can gameplan the same way for Aaron Jones.


Kansas City Chiefs (-2) @Tampa Bay Buccaneers - This is a super bowl rematch from a few years ago and it could potentially play out as the super bowl matchup this season.   Both teams are coming off losses, the Bucs will get Mike Evans back.   The Chiefs need this game more than Tampa and I expect them to play with more desperation.


Los Angeles Rams (+2.5) @ San Francisco 49ers - San Francisco did look ordinary against the Broncos who contained the 49ers throughout the game.   That being said, the 49ers usually play the Rams close given that they are division rivals.  I expect a slug fest and if the 49ers want to be a serious contender for the division, they are going to have take care of business at home.  Although it could play out that the road team wins each game.


Week 3 Against the Spread - 8-8

Week 3 Straight Up - 6-10

2022 Against the spread - 24-24

2022 Straight up - 24-24

2021 Against the Spread- 151-127-1

2021 Straight Up- 162-101-1
2021 Locks - 10-5

2020 Against the Spread- 124-140-6
2020 Week Straight Up - 173-97-1
2020 Locks- 24-24-2

2019 Season Against the Spread- 128-113-3
2019 Season Straight Up- 158-103
2019 Locks - 21-19-2
2020 Postseason against the Spread- 8-3
2020 Postseason Straight Up- 7-4


2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110 

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Sunday, September 25, 2022

2022 Week 3 Picks



 Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins (+5.5) - The Bills last took care of the Titans on Monday night by a fairly comfortable margin.  Still, the Dolphins are a division rival who just had an impressive victory against the Ravens.  The Dolphins defense didn't look great though for a majority of the game other than the 4th quarter.  The Bills will likely convert on the short yardage situations to pull them ahead although perhaps this will be a close game as it is in Miami. 


Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) @ Washington Commanders-  Carson Wentz faces his former team.  It will be interesting to see how if more Washington fans than usual will show up as the Eagles fans have been outnumbering them in recent matchups at Fed Ex field.   Overall, Wentz has been making some questionable decisions although it will be very hard to shut down Washington's receiving corp, the Eagles offense appears to be one of the best in the league and Washington will have to show a much better effort than they have in the past 2 weeks.  


Kansas City Chiefs  @ Indianapolis Colts (+6.5) -  The Colts have looked like tone of the worst teams in the league to start off the season although they weren't helped on the injury front when number 1 wide receiver Michael Pittman was ruled out who is scheduled to make his return this week.   



Detroit Lions (+6) @ Minnesota Vikings -  The Lions looked frisky last week against Washington while the Vikings struggled to maintain a semblance of a gameplan against the Eagles who the Lions actually only lost by 3 points.  The Vikings may rebound from a  bad performance although through 2 weeks, the Lions look like the better team. The only thing that gives me pause is the coaching staff and perhaps Cousins will respond from a very poor showing against Philadelphia.


Houston Texans (+3) @ Chicago Bears-  The Bears passing offense has been anemic through week.  While it wasn't aided by the rain in week 1, quarterback Justin Fields wasn't good at passing the ball downfield either.   Houston has looed much better than expected, so far covering twice and may actually come away with a win.


Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5) @ Tennessee Titans - These may be the most disappointing teams in the AFC along with the Cincinnati Bengals.  Derrick Henry still is getting warmed up while the Raiders had a 20-0 lead at halftime against the Arizona Cardinal, only o let it wilt away in an overtime loss.   I suppose the Raiders have at least shown signs of life, and if Henry can't get it going, the Titans offense appears to be very limited without AJ Brown. 


Jacksonville Jaguars (+7) @ Los Angeles Chargers  -  The Jaguars are coming off a nice win against the Colts and if not for a poor showing in the first half in Washington, perhaps the Jaguars would be 2-0.  The Chargers are coming off a loss to the Chiefs where they kept it close due to some spectacular 4th down conversions by Herbert and the Chargers offense.  Although Herbert's ability to play through ribs may prevent the Chargers from winning this game by a comfortable margin.


Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) @ Arizona Cardinals-  Kyler Murray did enough to take the Cardinals past the Raiders.    The Rams have not looked as elite against the Falcons although their offense is still competent with Cooper Kupp being the most consistent receiver.  


Baltimore Ravens (-3) @ New England Patriots - The Ravens should get a boost from the return of JJ Dobbins.  It could be a close game if the Patriots can slow down Lamar Jackson although if this game become a high scoring affair, the Patriots will be unlikely to keep up.  

New Orleans Saints (-3) @ Carolina Panthers - The Saints are looking to rebound after a loss to the Bucs against a the Panthers who have been struggling this season.  The Saints defense has looked sharp plus the Saints wideouts should get it going against a Panthers defense that still is inconsistent despite an adequate showing against the Giants last week.  


Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5) -  The Bucs being without Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Julio Jones does even the playing field a little bit.  Although Brady does seem to be motivated against Aaron Rodgers who has not always come to play in these marquee quarterback matchups.  The key to the game will be if Aaron Jones can get it going against a pretty stout Bucs' defense that has already made the Cowboys and Saints look pedestrian. 


Atlanta Falcons @ Seattle Seahawks (-2) - Neither of these teams look likely to make the playoffs.  The Seahawks did win a nice game against the Broncos facing their former quarterback, but really let the game get away against the 49ers the following week.   The Falcons in the meantime have kept it close against the Saints and the Rams.   Atlanta may be the better tea although homefield for the Seahawks makes this far from a guarantee that they will win this one.


Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Jets (+4.5) -  The Jets did just take care of the Browns last week although that was due to some mild incompetence by Nick Chubb who did not giving himself on a touchdown scoring play to ice the game.   The Browns did appear to run the ball extremely well while the Jets passing is aided by a solid group of wide receiver where Flacco can connect with them enough if the Bengals don't provide enough passing pressure.  The Bengals are playing with a sense of desperation although this line seems a bit high given that the Jets did beat the Bengals last season.   


San Francisco 49ers (-1.5) @ Denver Broncos-  Russell Wilson and the Broncos offense has not looked sharp against either the Texans or the Seahawks and neither defense is supposed to be elite.  The 49ers do have familiarity against Russell Wilson.   The potential for the 49ers to come away with with a win increased once Jimmy Garoppolo has been re-inserted back into the lineup.


Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (-2.5) -  The Giants surprise win in week 1 lead to an expected win against the Carolina Panthers.  The Giants are actually the favorites here without Dak, although the Cowboys did loo sharp against the Bengals.  Still, the Giants defense should contain the Cowboys running attack after they made Derrick Henry look pedestrian and Christian McCaffrey only had an average game.  


Week 2 against the Spread - 7-9  
Week 2 Straight Up - 10-6

2022 Against the spread - 15-17
2022 Straight up - 18-14

2021 Against the Spread- 151-127-1

2021 Straight Up- 162-101-1
2021 Locks - 10-5

2020 Against the Spread- 124-140-6
2020 Week Straight Up - 173-97-1
2020 Locks- 24-24-2

2019 Season Against the Spread- 128-113-3
2019 Season Straight Up- 158-103
2019 Locks - 21-19-2
2020 Postseason against the Spread- 8-3
2020 Postseason Straight Up- 7-4


2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110 

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Sunday, September 18, 2022

2022 Week 2 Picks



Joe Flacco wants to prove he's elite again by helping the Jets avoid going 0-2

New York Jets @ Cleveland Browns (-6) -  I can't in good conscience pick the Jets as long as Joe Flacco is starting.  The Browns look to go 2-0 without Deshaun Watson.


Washington Football Team @ Detroit Lions (-2.5) - Both teams covered last week.   Washington managed to hold onto a lead against the Jaguars although there were signs of a collapse.  The Lions only lost the game 38-35 although perhaps they were aided by the fact the Eagles had little to play for as the Lions managed to outscore the Eagles 17-0.   Wentz's inconsistency scares me in this one, then again his counterpart Jared Goff isn't inspiring.   

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) @ New Orleans Saints-  The Saints have seemed to have had Tom Brady's number lately.  The Saints did struggle against the Falcons but did manage to pull it together in the 2nd half.  Jameis Winston looked sharp.  That being said, his play from game to game has been inconsistent- plus Alvin Kamara is out for this game.  

Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants (-2.5) -  Saquon Barkely should be in line for an even bigger game against a Panthers team that didn't take care of its business against a Browns team the previous week.

New England Patriots  @ Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.5) - The Patriots have been effective at slowing down the Steelers. That being said the Steelers did look sharp in an unexpected win against the Bengals.  


Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+4) - The Colts season last week was ended by the Jaguars in a meaningless game.  The Jaguars offense does look a bit spring with the the return of James Robinson.  Michael Pittman for the Colts is also out.

Miami Dolphins @ Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) - Tyreek Hill has given the Ravens trouble in the past although the Ravens may be able to slow him down enough.  It will be interesting to see how the Dolphins play on the road against the Ravens who typically hold up well at home.

Atlanta Falcons (+10) @ Los Angeles Rams-  The Falcons could falter a bit on the road although they did manage to do enough to keep it close against the Saints last week.  This is the biggest point spread of the week and people are assuming to the Rams will get back on track after a long week to prepare.  Although there inability to run the ball was concerning against the Bills.  

Seattle Seahawks (+10) @ San Francisco 49ers - Perhaps the Seahawks can keep it relatively close against a division rival.   Especially since the 49ers will be without Elijah Mitchell.  The Seahawks will have to avoid an emotional letdown after just beating Russell Wilson last week, although their defense did seem solid in that game.

Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5) @ Dallas Cowboys - Without Dak Prescott, this could be a tough one for the Cowboys to overcome, especially since the Bengals want to avoid going 0-2 after their surprising playoff run last season.

Houston Texans (+10) @ Denver Broncos- The Texans did play the Colts tight for most of the week while the Broncos are still looking to get things in gear for Russell Wilson.  As of right now, it may be best to see see how the Bronco's offense plays out before trusting them to cover here.

Arizona Cardinals (+6) @ Las Vegas Raiders-  The Cardinals looked sloppy against the Chiefs although their defense is slightly better than the Raiders.  Look for Kyler Murray to play better after a poor showing in week 1.

Chicago Bears (+10) @ Green Bay Packers -  The Packers didn't really look up to it against their week 1 matchup against the Vikings   Their inability to slow down Justin Jefferson is concerning.  Although the Bears have struggled in Lambeau, they are coming off a nice win against the 49ers in week 1. 


Tennessee Titans (+10) @ Buffalo Bills - For some reason the Titans have played the Bills close.  Although this time it is in Buffalo.  Still, the Titans need to show a much better effort than they did against the Giants to keep it close.

Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles - Justin Jefferson looked great against the Green Bay Packers.   The Eagles did manage to beat the Lions last week and AJ Brown could present more problems than  whatever the Packers had to throw last week.  Still, the Vikings could come away with a road victory here.  


Week 1 against the Spread - 8-8  
Week 1 Straight Up - 8-8

2021 Against the Spread- 151-127-1

2021 Straight Up- 162-101-1
2021 Locks - 10-5

2020 Against the Spread- 124-140-6
2020 Week Straight Up - 173-97-1
2020 Locks- 24-24-2

2019 Season Against the Spread- 128-113-3
2019 Season Straight Up- 158-103
2019 Locks - 21-19-2
2020 Postseason against the Spread- 8-3
2020 Postseason Straight Up- 7-4


2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110 

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Sunday, September 11, 2022

2022 Week 1 Picks


I told my friend that I was going to step away from doing picks a couple of days ago but I still have some thoughts about who is going to win.


BOLDED FOR SPREAD

Italicized for Straight UP

 New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (+5.5) - Sean Payton stepping away could make the Saints less viable out of the gates although they do have some intriguing offensive weapons including Alvin Kamara returning, the first round draft pick of Olave, plus the Saints get to see a healthy Jameis Winston which should provide explosive plays both for the Saints offense and potentially the Falcons defense.   

The Falcons did downgrade their roster a bit with the departure of Matt Ryan and Calvin Ridley out due to his sports betting.  The Falcons have a good chance at covering at home against a division rival.  Of course, who knows how reliable quarterback Marcus Mariota will be his debut.  Not to mention last year that the road team won each matchup.

Baltimore Ravens (-7) @ New York Jets - The Ravens don't seem to have many reliable wide reecivers unless Rashod Bateman can live up to his potential.  Still the Ravens should take care of the Jets who are starting Joe Flacco.  

San Francisco 49ers @ Chicago Bears (+7) - This matchup features two quarterbacks drafted in the first round including Trey Lance and Justin Fields.   Fields looked slightly more impressive in his rookie season than Lance who may be downgrade in the short term over Jimmy G.  The 49ers will need a big game out of Deebo Samuels as the 49ers will attempt to pound the ball and control possession.  The Bears will likely try the same strategy, relying on David Montgomery and Herbert in the backfield.   Darnell Mooney emerges as the Bears number 1 receiver but other than that the Bears will be in trouble to keep up if this becomes a high scoring affair.

Cleveland Browns @ Carolina Panthers (-2.5) - Baker Mayfield makes the start against his former team who are playing without Deshaun Watson.  The Panthers will look to get it going on the run as long as Chrisitain McCaffrey can stay healthy.  

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5) -  The Bengals will attempt to avoid the hangover of a Super Bowl losing team that afflicts a number of teams although the Chiefs did manage to make the conference championship following their Super Bowl loss to the Bucks in 2021.  The Steelers appear to have a lot of intriguing players including rookie wide receiver George Pickens.  Running back Najee Harris will look to build upon his rookie season.   Still, the Bengals could win this game by double digits if the Bengals can do what they did last season which was averaged 32.5 points per game against the Steelers.  

Philadelphia Eagles (-4) @ Detroit Lions  - The Lions were in the HBO TV show Hard Knocks and apparently the team opens well against the spread in their week 1 debut.  Still, the Eagles passing attack with Jalen Hurts along with the addition of AJ Brown should be enough to get the Eagles past the Lions.  Of course, the Eagles defense needs to pressure Jared Goff into bad decisions, otherwise Armon St Brown will have a big game.  Not to mention, Jalen Hurts will have to build upon last season.  

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins (-3.5) -  This could be a good matchup between the Patriots and Dolphins.  Homefield advantage for the Dolphins looms large against the Patriots in the warmer weather.  Expectations for the Dolphins are abnormally high as it may be the first time the Dolphins have been favored since Tom Brady made his NFL debut.  Chase Edmonds could provide a boost for the Dolphins backfield.  Tua Tagavoila goes for his 4th win in 4 tries against the Patriots.

Tennessee Titans (-5.5) @ New York Giants -  This game features the two best running backs if both can stay healthy.  Derrick Henry has shown to be more durable than Saquon Barkley.  Although the Titans may be favored in this spot because of their superior defense.  Ryan Tannehill looks to bounce back after a disappointing playoff loss to the Bengals.   

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) - Two former Washington assistants goes at it in Matt Lafleur and Kevin O'Connell.   The Vikings actually feature better players at running back and wide receiver with the departure of Davante Adams to the Raiders.  Aaron Rodgers is certainly a better quarterback than Kirk Cousins although the Vikings did manage to squeeze a win in their last matchup in Minnesota.  

Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5) @ Washington Commanders- Washington looks to have some impressive weapons from the draft.  While Brian Robinson will be out sustaining injuries, which once again gives the opportunity for Antonio Gibson to start in the Commanders lineup, although there was talk of him being being sent to kickoff duty.  Carson Wentz will have to overcome the Jaguars who ended up ending his season last season when the Colts were upset the Jaguars last season. 

Kansas City Chiefs (-6) @ Arizona Cardinals- The Chiefs will look to atone for their 2nd half collapse against the Cincinnati Bengals.  Although hte Chiefs did lose Tyreek Hill, they did address their biggest weakness of last season which was adding to their offensive line.   Andy Reid will have to design an offense that is more egalitarian or perhaps it will just feature more of tight end Travis Kelce.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) - In this Sunday Night football matchup, the Raiders will took to come out of the gates especially with the addition of Davante Adams.  The Raiders did mange to beat the Chargers last season to clinch a playoff spot over them.  Still, that may have been a function of the coin toss.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) @ Dallas Cowboys -   The Bucs offensive line had trouble slowing down the Rams defensive front.  Still, the Cowboys also have questions about their offensive line and Ezekiel Elliot hasn't been playing up to par lately.

Denver Broncos (-6.5) @ Seattle Seahawks-  Russell Wilson makes his debut against his former team where he was drafted 10 years ago.   The Broncos offense will look to get into gear.  Javonte Williams could be problematic for Seattle's defense.  While Geno Smith has shown an ability to connect with top wideouts including DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, I still want to see more from Seattle's backfield before taking the points especially with Rashad Penny coming off Covid.  



2021 Against the Spread- 151-127-1

2021 Straight Up- 162-101-1
2021 Locks - 10-5

2020 Against the Spread- 124-140-6
2020 Week Straight Up - 173-97-1
2020 Locks- 24-24-2

2019 Season Against the Spread- 128-113-3
2019 Season Straight Up- 158-103
2019 Locks - 21-19-2
2020 Postseason against the Spread- 8-3
2020 Postseason Straight Up- 7-4


2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110 

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Sunday, February 13, 2022

2022 Super Bowl Pick- Rams vs Bengals


A craft beer only cost $19 at this Super Bowl


Cincinnati Bengals @ Los Angeles Rams (-4) - A lot of people predicted that the Rams would be in this position but very few people had the Bengals in this spot with Joe Burrow with a chance to win a Super Bowl in his second season.   The Rams are poised to take this one playing in Los Angeles even if their homefield advantage is considered pretty low.  They boast a better defense than the Chiefs, Titans, or Raiders.   The Rams defense is vulnerable to passes over the middle, so one should count on Tee Higgins having a good game.  The Rams do have Jalen Ramsey to contend with Jamarr Chase.   The Rams will rely heavily upon Cooper Kupp in this game.   While the Bengals defense has been playing great the last few weeks, the Rams are used to slug it out affairs as they just beat the 49ers in a nail biter.  The Rams have given up big leads although the strength of the NFC was generally considered stronger this season.  Burrow has been great this season although consistency has been a problem as the Bengals have had losses to teams like the Jets.  Still, the Bengals are looking to win yet another road playoff game son it's hard to eliminate the chances of an upset.  


NFL Conference Championship Picks Against the Spread - 2-0

NFL Conference Championship Picks Straight Up- 0-2

2021 Against the Spread- 151-126-1

2021 Straight Up- 161-101-1
2021 Locks - 10-5

2020 Against the Spread- 124-140-6
2020 Week Straight Up - 173-97-1
2020 Locks- 24-24-2

2019 Season Against the Spread- 128-113-3
2019 Season Straight Up- 158-103
2019 Locks - 21-19-2
2020 Postseason against the Spread- 8-3
2020 Postseason Straight Up- 7-4


2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110 

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