Sunday, September 23, 2018

Week 3 Picks

Italicized for win
Bolded for spread

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (-2)(LOCK)-  Atlanta appears to be a better team at home especially against division rivals.  The Saints did find away to keep the Browns game in their favor but overall the Falcons appear to be clicking on the right cylinders after a nice win against the Panthers and look to continue that trend against the Falcons.  I don't think the Saints can exploit the Falcons' weakness in the redzone like the Eagles did a few weeks ago. 

Green Bay Packers @ Washington Redskins (+3) - This week Washington will get a better idea of what team it has on its hands.  Redskins fans are universally disappointed by a loss to the Colts who may not be that terrible.  Either way that continues the trend of Redskins fans overreacting- many fans called Washington a playoff team after week 1 and many called the Redskins terrible after week 2.  The Packers have already begun the season 0-2 against the spread and a few plays here or there and they could easily be 0-2.  The rainy weather probably works more in the Redskins advantage given Rodger's injured leg.  One has to assume the Redskins offense will be significantly better against an average Packers' defense.  Otherwise, Jae Gruden may have to think about updating his resume after the season whose teams usually bounce back after poor performances.

Indianapolis Colts (+7) @ Philadelphia Eagles - The Colts try to get their second consecutive win against a NFC East team in consecutive weeks.     As they held Washington's offense to only 9 points. Carson Wentz returns which should be enough to propel the Eagles to win but still do not have Alshon Jeffrey and their two top running backs Ajayi and Sproles may miss this game. 

Buffalo Bills @ Minnesota Vikings (-15.5)(LOCK) - Nathan Peterman is pretty bad.  Kirk Cousins threw four touchdowns and things could even messier considering the Bills secondary is banged up.  The Vikings home crowd compounds even more issues. 

Oakland Raiders @ Miami Dolphins (-3)(LOCK) - Right now Miami is slipping under the radar while the Raiders could fall into an 0-3 hole.

Denver Broncos (+7) @ Baltimore Ravens- The Ravens have had more time to prepare after a bad loss to the Bengals.  Right now, I do think Case Keenum is playing better than Flacco.  While the Ravens play better at home, I do not think it is enough for them to cover. 

Cincinnati Bengals @ Carolina Panthers (-3) - No Joe Mixon for the Bengals, while they have an adequate replacement in Bernard probably gives the Panthers the small edge in this game. 

New York Giants(+6) @ Houston Texans - Neither team has much confidence at 0-2.  I suppose one has to take the home team even though the Giants are playing the 2nd consecutive game in Texas may be enough to keep it close. 

Tennessee Titans (+10) @ Jacksonville Jaguars - The Jaguars are looking to put a stranglehold on the division and the Titans appear to be heading underwater without Delanie Walker.  That being said, the Titans could do enough to keep it close against a division especially after coming away with a win against the Texans last week.  The Jaguars could have a let down after beating a team like the Pats. 

San Francisco 49ers @ Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5)(LOCK) - Most experts are touting this as a high scoring game. I think the Chiefs should cover assuming they get a boost from their homefield which they have yet to play a game and are already 2-0 on the road with double digit wins against two teams that one could argue are better than the 49ers.

Los Angeles Chargers(+7)  @ Los Angeles Rams - The Rams are playing like Super Bowl contenders although their opponents have been pretty bad.  That being said, the Chargers can do enough to keep it close.

Dallas Cowboys @ Seattle Seahawks (-1.5)(LOCK) - Seattle gets to try to play a game at home.  Perhaps the Cowboys ended their season. Perhaps but beating Seattle with its 12th man may prove to be difficult. 

Chicago Bears(-2)(LOCK) @ Arizona Cardinals - Chicago attempts to take a 2-1 lead.  Their QB play under Mitchell Trubisky is not great but the Bears defense is certainly capable of shutting down the Cardinals much like the Redskins did in week 1. 

New England Patriots(-6) @ Detroit Lions - Look for the Patriots to bounce back against their former defensive coordinator Mike Patricia in a primetime game.  It could be high scoring but I assume Tom Brady bounces back after a below average performance against the Jaguars. 

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tampa Bay Bucaneers (+1) - The Steelers are more than capable of coming away with a win especially if Fitzpatrick regresses to the mean.  However, the Steelers defense appears to be below average and the Bucs are at home, so for now the Bucs are the slight favorites to come away with a win especially given how the first two weeks have unfolded.

Week 3 Against the Spread: 0-1
Week 3 Straight up: 0-1

2018 Season against the Spread- 15-16-2
2018 Season Straight Up- 18-12-2
2018 Locks- 2-2


2017-18 Against the Spread- 221-225-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-10  

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