Sunday, September 9, 2018

Week 1 Picks

Italicized for win

Bolded for spread


Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns (+4) - The Steelers are without Le'Veon Bell and rainy conditions could make this game a toss up.

San Francisco 49ers (+6.5) @ Minnesota Vikings - The Vikings have suffered a few injuries on their offensive line.  Jimmy G is 5-0 in his 49ers tenure and could do enough to keep it close. 

Cincinnati Bengals (+3) @ Indianapolis Colts  - Andrew Luck returns. However, the Colts' homefield advantage is pretty weak given that they have not had a winning record at home since 2014. 

Buffalo Bills (+7.5) @ Baltimore Ravens - Nathan Peterman has looked shaky so far but at the end of the day the Bills were still a playoff team that has a solid defense that could keep it close against the Ravens.  This of course assumes that Peterman can avoid turnovers, as the Bills will attempt to get the ball to LeSean McCoy.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) @ NY Giants - The Giants look interesting with some new combination of weapons including a healthy Beckham, a rookie running back Saquon Barkley, and a nice tight end in Evan Engram.  While the Jaguars lost Allen Hurns to the Cowboys, they were still a couple of plays of making it to the Super Bowl.  Leonard Fournette could be the difference in these rainy conditions assuming the Jaguars defense holds up against Barkley.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints (-9.5) LOCK - New Orleans usually takes care of business at home.   The Bucs start Ryan Fitzpatrick which could mean more turnovers for the Saints defense.

Houston Texans @ New England Patriots (-6.5) - Houston and DeShaun Watson really pushed New England to the limit last season in a regular season matchup. However, Watson is coming off a knee injury and could be a bit rusty while the Patriots look to atone for last season's Super Bowl loss against the Eagles.

Tennessee Titans @ Miami Dolphins (+1.5) - Ryan Tanehill looks to continue the Dolphins' success in home openers as they have won 4 of their past 5.  The Titans are 9-21 against the spread in their last 30 road games. 

Kansas City Chiefs (+3.5) @ LA Chargers - The Chiefs are 8-0 against the Chargers in their last 8 games.  There might be more Chiefs fans in this game. 

Seattle Seahawks (+3) @ Denver Broncos - Denver upgrades its offense with Keenum at QB who may finally be able to connect with their reliable receivers including Thomas and Sanders.  Seattle's defense has lost a few players and Seattle's offense can be anemic at times.  Still Russell Wilson's mobility in the pocket could be enough to get the Seahawks with a win on the road. 

Dallas Cowboys @ Carolina Panthers (-3) LOCK - Dallas's offensive weapons other than Elliot do not seem to be reliable and the Panthers boasted the third best rushing defense last season. 

Washington Redskins (+1) @ Arizona Cardinals - The Redskins appear to have a reliable offensive line and defensive line.  While the Cardinals could present problems in forcing Alex Smith into difficult decisions, the Redskins will look to get the running game with Adrian Peterson.  David Johnson could present problems although Washington also gets another good pass catching option with Chris Thompson.  Former Pro Bowl Tight end Jordan Reed is also healthy. 

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers (-7.5) - The Bears look interesting but typically struggle on the road and their offense may not be able to keep pace if they are playing from behind. 

New York Jets  @ Detroit Lions (-6.5) - The Jets' defense could do enough to keep it close. However, Darnold has a lot of hype but he's still a rookie quarterback.  The Lions were only 4-4 at home last season but their losses came against playoff teams including the Falcons, Steelers, Panthers, and Vikings. 

LA Rams (-4) @ Oakland Raiders - The Rams look very explosive on offense and look to take advantage of the absence of Khalil Mack. 

2018 Week 1 Against the Spread- 0-1
2018 Week 1 Straight Up- 0-1
2017-18 Against the Spread- 221-225-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92
2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41
2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-107

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