Thanksgiving Edition Picks 2017

Stafford looks to improve 

the Lions 3-0 division record.

Minnesota @ Detroit (+2) - The Lions already beat the Vikings on the road in a game where Dalvin Cook got knocked out with a season ending injury and Minnesota struggled to put up 7 points.

LA Chargers @ Dallas- Playing on the road may help the Chargers since they are many Cowboys fans in LA.  For the past two weeks, the Cowboys have had blowout losses against the Falcon and the Eagles who have been without Ezekiel Elliot.  The Chargers are not in that tier one category but they have been knocking on the door with some close games against the Eagles and the Jaguars earlier in the season.  

NY Giants (+7) @ Washington - This could be a relatively close game against division rivals.  While Washington should edge out the Giants, they have not beaten the Giants by a touchdown or more since 2011.  The short week should hurt both teams equally given that the Giants only have to make a short commute from New York.

Week 11 Picks Against the Spread - 8-6
Week 11 Picks Straight up - 10-4
2017-18 Against the Spread- 68-78-6
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 96-59
2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41
2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-107

Week 10 Picks 2017

The Redskins will get back Trent Williams who

could have his hands full containing Everson Griffin 

who has 10 sacks this season (via Washington Post)  

Minnesota @ Washington (+1.5) - Jordan Reed is out so the Redskins will rely more heavily upon Jamison Crowder and Josh Doctson.  Washington could do a decent job containing the Vikings offense who had a surprising performance against Seattle.  Hopefully for Washington, the Redskins can limit turnovers as Cousins does have the most fumbles allowed by any player this season.

Green Bay @ Chicago (-5.5) - Things don't get easier for the Packers who are coming off a short week and the Bears are coming off a bye.   While Chicago's offense has not been explosive, the Packers' defense may have trouble containing the Bears running attacking including Josh Howard, Tarik Cohen, and even the scrambling QB rushes by Mitchell Trubisky.

Pittsburgh (-10) @ Indianapolis - Pittsburgh is coming off a bye and looks to advantage of the Colts that have not won consecutive games this season.

LA Chargers @ Jacksonville (-5) - The Jaguars have taken care of business over the past few weeks without Leonard Fournette and now get him back.  Philip Rivers is still a savvy quarterback but may struggle to put together a good game against a stifling Jacksonville defense.

NY Jets (-2) @ Tampa Bay- Ryan Fitzpatrick goes against his former team but Tampa Bay will be without their best wide receiver Mike Evans.  One would expect the Jets defense to effectively game plan for Fitzpatrick's strengths and weaknesses.  Josh McCown is also is playing against one of his many former teams.

Cincinnati (+5.5) @ Tennessee - Look for the Titans to take care of business against two AFC North teams in successive weeks who have won each of their past two games by a field goal.

New Orleans @ Buffalo (+3)  - Cold weather could be a factor in this one as Buffalo has not lost a game at home this season not have they lost consecutive games.   The Bills should receive a boost in their passing game with the addition of Kelvin Benjamin and the the return of Charles Clay after weeks of being sidelined.

Cleveland @ Detroit (-11) - The Lions have taken care of business against inferior opponents including double digits wins against the Giants, Cardinals, and Packers.

Houston @ LA Rams(-12) - The Rams are currently on a 3 game winnings streak of double digit wins.  The Texans offense appears to be a mess without DeShaun Watson and Houston's defense is still prone to give up big scoring outburst.

Dallas (+3.5) @ Atlanta - Dallas's defense did a good job containing the Chiefs' offense last week and look to apply a similar formula to the Falcons who have struggled with their play calling all season.  Dallas has an interesting mix of running backs including Darren McFadden and Alfred Morris without Elliot in the lineup.

NY Giants (-2.5) @ San Francisco - The Giants may come away with a win due their defense, although things could get ugly if their players decide not to show up and play for their head coach Ben McAdoo.

New England (-7) @ Denver - Brady's struggles at Denver have been noted including a 2-7 record but Tom Brady has had time to prepare for this Sunday night performance as the Patriots are coming off a bye against a reeling Broncos' team.

Miami (+9) @ Carolina  - Jay Cutler quietly had his first game with over 300 yards, 3 TDs, and 0 interceptions in a loss to the Raiders.  Still, Carolina has a much better defense with Kuchley back in the lineup.  Look for the Panthers to win by a touchdown.

You can hear my picks at the 2 hour mark on Sport on the Hill Podcast hosted by Robbie Gross, Daniel Evans, Paul Smith Mike Hoffman and Ken Washington (D.C.'s People's Champ - WCW.

Week 10 Picks Against the spread - 0-0-1
Week 9 Picks Straight up - 1-0
2017-18 Against the Spread- 56-64-5
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 79-49
2016-17 Against the Spread- 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up = 101-41
2015-16 Against the Spread 140-107

Week 6 Picks 2017

Mitchell Trubrisky had some nice plays 

but also struggled against a tough Minnesota defense.

Chicago @ Baltimore (-6.5)  -   Theoretically, the Bears could take advantage of a banged up Baltimore team.  However, the Ravens are coming off a nice road win on the road against the Raiders and look to take advantage of the fact that rookie quarterbacks have struggled in Baltimore.

Cleveland @ Houston (-10) -

Kevin Hogan starts for the Browns, team announces

— Mike Garafolo (@MikeGarafolo) October 11, 2017

DeShone Kizer just liked a tweet saying “The Browns are and have always will be the worst organization in the league” #Browns pic.twitter.com/0A9dM25l9k

— Underdog Sports (@RealTheUnderdog) October 11, 2017

Cleveland benches their rookie quarterback while the Texans start theirs.  Overall, while Duke Johnson has had a couple of nice games, the Texans could atone for a lackluster effort against the Chiefs, who have made good teams look ordinary.

Green Bay (-3) @ Minnesota - The Vikings offense appears to be appear a little bit of a mess due to the injury to Dalvin Cook.  The Vikings have had nice wins at home against the Bucs and Saints but struggled against division rivals like the Lions.  After beating the Dallas Cowboys, the Packers appear to be a strong enough team on the road to beat the Vikings.

Detroit (+4.5) @ New Orleans- The Saints are slight favories especially coming off a bye.  Although the Lions may keep it close especially considering the effort they mounted against the Panthers in the 2nd half and the fact that Stafford is a comeback king.



Miami @ Atlanta (-13) -

Julio Jones appears to be healthy

after getting injured in week 4 against Buffalo

Watch for the Falcons to rebound big after a surprising loss to the Bills. The Dolphins did pull out a win but I would bet against Cutler who had below average numbers against the Titans.

New England @ NY Jets (-9.5) -

Belichick on perception Jets aren't competitive: "I don’t know what games they are watching. Maybe it’s fantasy football or some garbage."

— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) October 13, 2017

The Patriots may come up with a close win.  However, the game could be close for the Jets who traditionally have played the Patriots close and are coming off their 3rd straight win.

San Francisco @ Washington (-4.5) -

#49ers releasing NaVorro Bowman, per his request, John Lynch says.

— Cam Inman (@CamInman) October 13, 2017

For a winless team the 49ers are frisky while losing a combined 4 games by 11 points.  Still, Washington is coming off a bye and the last time we saw the Redskins they were close to pulling off a win against the undefeated Chiefs.  I would be worried about Pierre Garcon having a big game without Josh Norman, but Washington should likewise look to take advantage of the holes in the 49ers defense.

Tampa Bay @ Arizona (+1.5) -

AP NEED MORE TOUCHES

— Chris Johnson (@ChrisJohnson28) September 12, 2017

Adrian Peterson will wear #23 for the Arizona Cardinals, formerly Chris Johnson's jersey number.

— Andrew Siciliano (@AndrewSiciliano) October 11, 2017

The Bucs have a long week to prepare from Thursday after a last second loss.  The Cardinals will come up motivated after a big loss to the Eagles.  While Carson Palmer is not getting any younger, the Cardinals could receive a boost with the return of Adrian Peterson, although the aforementioned Chris Johnson who said that Peterson should receiver more touches has been cut.

LA Rams @ Jacksonville (-2.5) -

On his 90-yard TD run, @_fournette reached 22.05 mph -- highest max speed for a ball carrier this year, per #NextGenStats

— Chris Wesseling (@ChrisWesseling) October 9, 2017

Two surprise above .500 teams play one another.  Theoretically the Jaguars at home could find a way to repeat their outstanding performance last week against Steelers.  Still, Jacksonville has struggled to put together 2 consecutive wins this season.  Both teams have questionable quarterback play with above average receivers, and great young running backs.  However, the Jaguars have a much better defense that shut down the Ravens and forced Big Ben into 5 interceptions.

Pittsburgh @ Kansas City (-3) - Both teams look to avenge their last loss.  The Steelers really struggled last week against the Jaguars on both ends.  Pittsburgh even gave up a 90 yard run to Leonard Fournette who historically hold opposing running backs to below average games.   The Chiefs last loss came at the end of the 2016-17 postseason against this same Pittsburgh Steelers team.  If Kansas City can covert on 3rd down at a high rate like they did Sunday night against the Texans, then the Chiefs can attempt to atone for how the bitter way that their season ended.

LA Chargers (+3.5) @ Oakland- The Chargers are a perplexing team that have managed to keep games close.  Derek Carr returns which could be enough to put the Raiders over the top but it could be a shootout between the two California teams.

NY Giants @ Denver (-11.5) -

Giants made it official and said Odell Beckham’s fractured ankle is season ending.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 9, 2017

The Broncos are coming off a bye and look to take advantage of the absence of Odell Beckham.  While it could be a potential trap game for the Broncos, their focus may be higher because it is a Sunday Night game in primetime.

Indianapolis (-4) @ Tennessee - Both teams could be without their starting QBs.  If Marcus Marriota returns, I like the Titans chances.  However, with his status in doubt, the Titans offense may struggle with Matt Cassell.


You can hear more about my picks (which are subject to change) with Robbie Gross, Tim Clarke, Brian Brennan, and Ken Washington (D.C.'s People Champ) here on the Sports on the Hill Podcast at the 2 hour 4 minute mark or watch it on the Facebook page .

Week 6 Picks Straight Up: 0-1
Week 6 Picks Against the Spread: 0-1
2017-18 Season Straight Up- 44-30
2017-18 Against the Spread- 33-37-2
2016-17 Season Against the Spread- 141-115-7
2016-17 Season Straight Up- 101-45
2015-16 Against the Spread- 140-107-9