Sunday, October 3, 2021

2021 Week 4 Picks


If Bucs’ quarterback Tom Brady sets the NFL all-time passing record Sunday night against his former team, and he needs only 68 yards to do it, the Patriots will pause to acknowledge it but not stop the game for a ceremony.


Washington Football Team (-1.5) @ Atlanta Falcons -  Washington's pass rush has not been getting it done.  This is the least mobile quarterback that Washington has played so far.  Washington did get blown it out in their last game so a loss here would be especially grave with their upcoming schedule against Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers.  

Houston Texans @ Buffalo Bills (-16.5) - The Bills look to take care of business for the 2nd week at home.  

Detroit Lions (+3) @ Chicago Bears - The Lions almost won last week against the Ravens while Justin Fields still looks like a work in progress- he looked a little too much like Dwayne Haskins in the last game.

Carolina Panthers @ Dallas Cowboys (-4) -  The Panthers are 3-0 but are going to be without Christian McCaffery and their first rounder Jaycee Horn.  Sam Darnold may struggle to keep pace with Dak.

Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles-  The Chiefs have failed to cover the first 3 weeks of the season but look for them to care of business in a revenge game where Andy Reid will look to enjoy a cheesesteak after.

New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints (-7.5) - Perhaps there is value for the Giants to keep it close although they will be missing a couple of their top wideouts and Dnaiel Jones has been very average other than games against the Washington Football Team.

Cleveland Browns @ Minnesota Vikings (+2)- Two evenly matched teams.  There is a lot of skepticism about Cousins early on this season although he looked sharp last week against the Seahawks.  Perhaps the homefield will give the Vikings the edge along with the return of Dalvin Cook in what could be a high scoring game.

Indianapolis Colts @ Miami Dolphins (-1.5)  - Tua makes his return although he hasn't been as sharp.  The running game with Gaskins has also been below average along with the defense.  That being said, the Dolphins were able to pile up points against the Raiders and could be due for a win at home against Wentz.

New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans (-7.5) - The Titans will be without both their top wideouts in Julio Jones and AJ Brown.  Of course, the question remains how much all that will matter if Zach Wilson continues to struggle although he does get top wide receiver Jamison Crowder back.

Seattle Seahawks (-3) @ San Francisco 49ers - In a divisional game with both teams coming off losses, the Seahawks with Wilson may rebound.  The running defense of the Seahawks has been below average though although the 49ers may be without Elijah.

Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams (-6) -  The Rams appear to be the best team in football.  The Rams have also beaten the Cardinals by at least 7 points in their last 8 meetings.

Baltimore Ravens @ Denver Broncos (-1.5) - The Ravens did pull off a last second miracle against the Lions.  That being said, the Broncos defense is supposed to be even better than the Lions and could make this game a slog.  

Pittsburg Steelers @ Green Bay Packers (-7) - Big Ben has struggled to air it out which could become problematic if Aaron Rodgers is on his game.  Diontae Johnson does return for the Steelers but Chase Claypool is out.  

Tampa Bay Bucs (-6.5) @ New England-  In a much hyped matchup ,anything could happen as Brady faces his former team.  That being said, with both secondaries banged up, obviously favors the more explosive Buccaneers.   

Las Vegas Raiders (+3.5) @ Los Angeles Chargers -  Homefield advantage may be mitigated if Raiders fans show up this one.   Also, a divisional matchup could bring another compelling and close game.  


2021 Against the Spread- 24-25
2021 Straight Up- 28-22
2021 Locks - 4-4

2020 Against the Spread- 124-140-6
2020 Week Straight Up - 173-97-1
2020 Locks- 24-24-2

2019 Season Against the Spread- 128-113-3
2019 Season Straight Up- 158-103
2019 Locks - 21-19-2
2020 Postseason against the Spread- 8-3
2020 Postseason Straight Up- 7-4


2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110 

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