Sunday, October 1, 2017

Week 4 Picks

New Orleans (-3) @ Miami- The Dophins suffered a disappointing loss on the road against the Jets but they tend to lose division rivalry games. Drew Brees looked very sharp in a road win against the Panthers.  Also, while Miami could bounce back, Jay Cutler is still an inconsistent quarterback.

Jacksonville @ New York Jet (+3.5) - Which team that won an impressive blowout against a huge favorite are we going to roll with here?  I suppose the Jaguars have an upbeat offense; through 3 games Blake Bortles has thrown fewer picks and pick 6s than Aaron Rodgers.  That being said, the Jets defense could go for back to back wins especially given that the Jaguars are travelling from London.

Carolina @ New England (-9) - The Patriots defense looks like a bit of a mess after squeaking out a win against the Texans and have given up an average of 32 points per game which is the worst in the league. The Panthers offense looks like they are in disarray especially after Cam Newton is banged up and without a few of his top targets in Benjamin and Olsen.

Detroit @ Minnesota (+2.5) - The Vikings appear to be a different team at home with impressive wins over the Bucs and Saints.  The Lions could have easily beaten the Falcons although I suspect the Vikings defense will be a tough test especially with the crowd noise.

Buffalo (+8)
@ Atlanta (6.5) - Both teams are coming off impressive wins. Atlanta is a much better team at home although the Bills defense has traveled and played well on the road against the Jets and Panthers and could keep the game close.

Pittsburgh (-3) @ Baltimore- Both teams suffered embarrassing losses at the hands of winless teams.  I'll say that the Ravens loss was slightly more questionable and I like the offensive weapons of the Steelers more.

Tennessee @ Houston (+1.5) - Tennessee had an impressive win at home against the Seattle at home, but Houston almost came away with an upset against the Patriots.  I expect the Texans to pull it out at home in a division rivalry game. 

Cincinnati (-3) @ Cleveland  - Both these Ohio teams played well on the road in week 2 losses. The Bengals lost but covered against the Packers and the Browns lost a close game.   Vontaze Burfict returns and could give the Bengals a much needed boost on defense.

LA Rams (+6.5) @ Dallas - This game will be interesting as Sean McVay will attempt to upset the Cowboys, although Dak Presscot has appeared to find his flow in a week 2 win against the Cardinals.  The Rams could pose a tougher test offensively than the Giants and Cardinals and I'm picking the Rams to go for an upset here.

Philadelphia @ San Diego (+2) - I am expecting a loss for the Eagles after a poor showing against the New York Giants in the 2nd half.  The Chargers tend to play up to the level of their competition and are desperate to avoid an 0-4 start.

NY Giants @ Tampa (-3) - Tampa was beaten up by the Vikings but could bounce back at home.  Manning could get it going with Beckham to keep in close although they are more likely than not to fall to 0-4 especially since Tampa should be playing desperate to avoid going 1-2.

San Francisco (+6.5) @ Arizona - San Francisco's offense hit a different gear and had more time to prepare for this game.  Arizona may do enough to win.

Oakland @ Denver (-3) - Both teams suffered losses to east cost teams.  The Broncos offense was slightly more impressive and have better quality wins than the Raiders at this point in the season.

Indianapolis @ Seattle (-13) - When in doubt, bet on Seattle's homefield advantage plus the Colts could be due for a letdown after winning their first game of the season.

Washington(+6.5) @ Kansas City - Expect a close game as it could be a battle of defense.  Still, I expect Kansas City to pull this one out given that they are 3-0 including a blowout win against the Patriots and a nice win against the Eagles, who defeated Washington in week 1.

Week 4 against the Spread: 0-1
Week 4 Straight Up: 1-0

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