Sunday, January 20, 2019

2019 NFL Conference Championship Picks

The matchup of Mahomes vs Brady is the largest age 
difference in NFL history for a conference championship game.





LA Rams (+3.5) @ New Orleans Saints  - The last time the Rams were in the Super Bowl was in 2002, although the last time they were the LA Rams was 1980  The Saints in the meantime won the Super Bowl back in 2010.  The Rams running game will likely power the Rams through the game although Brees could do enough to cose out the game if the game becomes close in the 4th quarter. 




New England Patriots @ Kansas City Chiefs (-3) - The Patriots look like a much better team in the playoffs against the Chargers who laid an egg defensively by not taking away the running nor providing a pass rush as the Patriots picked apart the Chargers zone defense.  Mahomes had 352 and 4 touchdowns in the last matchup against the Patriots. Patriots are only 3-5 on the road and the Chiefs just seem like a more explosive team with their read pass option plays which gave the Patriots problems in the Super Bowl last season. 


2019 Postseason against the spread: 3-2-1
2019 Postseason: 4-4

2018 Season against the Spread- 112-106-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-85-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110  
Posted by at No comments:

Saturday, January 12, 2019

2019 NFL Divisional Round Picks

Andy Reid attempts to get Kansas City to the conference 
championship which it hasn't done since 1993 with Joe Montana

Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas Chiefs (-5) - The Colts can move the ball well but the Chiefs are simply too explosive in this one if this becomes a shootout.  DeShaun Watson simply could not get going for whatever the reason, I feel like Mahomes is playing at another level who is likely going to win MVP after throwing 50 touchdowns.  Marlon Mack ran for 148 last week against a great Houston TEexan's defense which is worrisome.  That being said, the Chief's homefield could give them the advantage in this one against the Colts' who are a dome team. 





Dallas Cowboys (+7)@ Los Angeles Rams - Dallas looks to apply the same formula in stopping the run like they did against Seattle.  The Rams defense may not be great at stopping the run despite all the talent they have along that defensive front.  Todd Gurley is also banged up and the Rams haven't been as explosive without Cooper Kupp.  Plus the Cowboys may have a lot of fans in LA.  Sean McVay may have enough in the bag to pull the Rams out with a win.

Los Angeles Chargers (+4) @ New England Patriots - This is an interesting game as it goes back to the origins of why the Patriots became great in the first place in the tuck game where the Patriots celebrated making snow angels.  In the meantime, the LA Chargers come to town who are actually better on the road this season than at home.  Bill Belichick should develop a good game plan but at the same time on paper, the Chargers seem to have a better running game, better wide receivers and a much better defensive pass rush. 




Drew Brees held his high school record for passing yards and 
touchdowns until 2006 when it was broken by Nick Foles

Philadelphia Eagles (+8) @ New Orleans Saints - The Saints did beat the Eagles 45-7 earlier this season.  That being said, the Eagles appear to be a differently run team whose secondary has improved enough to slow down the LA Rams and Chicago Bears.  Plus New England might take a while to shake off some cobwebs after not really playing well for the past 3 weeks. The Saints explosive offense and homefield should be enough to carry them to victory but perhaps they do not blow out the Eagles in the same fashion as they did earlier in the season given the nature of the playoffs where the underdogs were 3-0-1 against the spread so far this postseason.

2019 Postseason against the spread: 2-1-1
2019 Postseason: 1-3
2018 Season against the Spread- 112-106-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-85-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110  
Posted by at No comments:

Saturday, January 5, 2019

2019 NFL Wild Card Picks

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (-1.5) - Two fairly evenly matched teams that each won on the opposing team's stadium.   The Colts have allowed 18 sacks this season and have not allowed a sack in 5 games although they have the 2nd most holding penalties.  The difference in the game could be the Texans receiving depth who are already missing their 2nd, 3rd, and 4th receiver on the depth chart.  That being said DeAndre Hopkins is still a beast- the Colts limited him to 36 yards and a touchdown in the last matchup although Hopkins went off for 136 yards and hasn't recorded a dropped pass.  The last matchup may not be indicative of what happens today given that the Colts needed the win much more at the time.  

Seattle Seahawks(+2) @ Dallas Cowboys - Seattle beat the Dallas earlier in the season 24-13, although this time around the Cowboys have Amari Cooper so the game should be closer.  The Cowboys are also 7-1 at home this season.  While I do think the Cowboys' defense should be menacing, I have more trust in Russell Wilson than Dak Presscott if this game becomes close.  Also, Amari Cooper has seemed to come back to earth.    

 LA Chargers (+2.5) @ Baltimore Ravens - The Ravens are 6-1 with Lamar Jackson.  If Jackson played 16 games, he would be second in rushing attempts only behind Ezekiel Elliot.  Jackson already has more rushing yards than Phillip Rivers in his entire career.   That being said, their have been some chinks in the armor exposed by the Browns last week and a healthy Melvin Gordon could be enough to help Phillip Rivers get a passing game going assuming Keenan Allen is healthy.    

Philadelphia Eagles (+6.5) @ Chicago Bears   - Is the Eagles defense back that held the Washington Redskins to lowest yardage for the team in 8 year?  Nick Foles also left the field banged up but his appear to be bruised.  The Bears essentially took care of Cousins in a meaningless game and it makes me wonder if the Bears can take care of another Michigan State quarterback in Foles like they did last week in Cousins.  But the Eagles are the defending the champions and could do enough to keep it close.   


Week 17 Against the Spread: 10-6-
Week 17 Straight Up: 11-5
Week 17 Locks: 3-1

2018 Season against the Spread- 112-106-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-85-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110  
Posted by at No comments:

Sunday, December 30, 2018

Week 17 Picks

Bolded for spread

Oakland Raiders (-13.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs - The Raiders seem friskier the past few weeks while the Chiefs have not appeared to be as dominant the last few weeks without Kareem Hunt.

New York Jets @ New England Patriots (-13.5)(LOCK) - The Patriots all 5 losses against teams that are not going to playoffs but are still undefeated at home and are playing for a first round bye.

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills (-4) - Buffalo Bills look to complete series sweep against the Dolphins.

Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings (-4.5) - If the Rams beat the 49ers, the Bears will have nothing to play for



Cleveland Browns (+5.5) @ Baltimore Ravens  - Arguably the Browns biggest game in the past 12 years for Cleveland.  The Ravens will likely win this game in what will determine their playoff fortunes.

Detroit Lions (+8) @ Green Bay Packers - Neither team has not much to play for in this one.  The Lions already beat the Packers earlier this season and it is a rivalry game.


 Carolina Panthers (+7.5) @ New Orleans Saints - Teddy Bridgewater is starting in this one.  Cam Newton is out but Christian McCaffrey could do enough to keep it close.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans (-6.5)(LOCK) - Houston coming off a loss and the Jaguars are coming off a win but look for the opposite to hold true.





Dallas Cowboys (+6) @ New York Giants - The Cowboys have nothing to play for and are resting players.  Without Odell Beckham Jr., this game could still be close.





Philadelphia Eagles(-6.5)(LOCK) @ Washington Redskins - Nick Foles threw for 471 yards 4 touchdowns and 1 interception against a good Texans defense.  Look for the the Eagles to take advantage of a Redskins team that has nothing to play for.  Plus there is a good chance that the stadium is filled with Eagles fans.

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers - The Falcons are coming off a 2 game winning streak but against 2 of the worst teams in the NFL including the Cardinals and Panthers, who were playing without Cam Newton.  The Bucs have lost 3 straight but against 3 potential playoff teams including the Saints, Ravens, and Cowboys.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-14.5) - No AJ Green, Boyd and Andy Dalton for the Bengals in a must win game for the Steelers.

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks (-13.5) (LOCK) - Seattle is playing for its playoff lives against a really banged up Cardinals team

San Francisco 49ers(+10) @ Los Angeles Rams - The 49ers were a QB run away from extending a drive to pull ahead of the Bears.   Todd Gurley is out.




Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5) @ Denver Broncos - Denver is running on fumes without Lindsay and Sanders and have had bad losses to the Raiders and 49ers in the last few week.

Indianapolis Colts (-3) @ Tennessee Titans - Colts won 38-10 earlier in the season.  While the Titans looked impressive at times against the Redskins, Marcus Mariota is not expected to play.  Andrew Luck is undefeated against the Titans so far in his career.

Week 16 Against the Spread: 7-6-3
Week 16 Straight Up: 11-5
Week 16 Locks: 2-1

2018 Season against the Spread- 102-100-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 126-80-2
2018 Locks- 18-15-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 221-225-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110  

Posted by at No comments:

Saturday, December 22, 2018

Week 16 Picks

Italicized for win
Bolded for spread

Washington Redskins (+10) @ Tennessee Titans - Josh Johnson won his first start in his career; he was drafted in 2008.  Maybe the Redskins should have gone in on their all Alabama strategy by taking running back Derrick Henry instead of wide receiver Josh Doctson in 2016.  Washington showed signs of life which may have given Redskins fans hope for the playoffs another week but usually fall apart after raising expectations.  Although maybe Washington's defense can do enough to keep it within single digits.





Baltimore Ravens @ Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5)(LOCK) - The Ravens are battling for a playoff spot and the Chargers are battling for a first round bye.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7) @ Dallas Cowboys - The Cowboys were shut out last week, while the Bucs only have 2 road wins, if they can contain Amari Cooper, they can keep it close.

Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions (+5.5) - Vikings recorded 9 sacks last week against the Dolphins and Dalvin Cook had a nice rushing game.  The Lions have been held under 21 for the last five games but could keep it close at home in a rivalry game.




Atlanta Falcons (-3)(LOCK) @ Carolina Panthers - Cam Newton is out and Taylor Heineke takes over.  The Panthers could become the first team in NFL history to start the season 6-2 and finish 6-10.





Houston Texans @ Philadelphia Eagles(-2) - Nick Foles coming off a nice win against the Rams.  Carson Wentz says he wants to play on his bad back but the Eagles are sitting him out.

New York Giants (+9.5) @ Indianapolis Colts - While the Giants were shutout, the Giants may have had a bad week because of the weather and could play better indoors.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns(-8.5) - While the Bengals lost by 15 points in the previous matchup, it is a division rivalry game.  Joe Mixon also returns for the Bengals. Cleveland does need to win this game though and could be motivated against Hue Jackson.





Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots (-12) - Brady is having his worst season since 2009.  That being said, Brady is 26-3 all time against Buffalo and 15-1 at home.  His only loss came where Brady only played in the 1st quarter and sat out in a meaningless game.

Green Bay Packers @ New York Jets  (+3) - Aaron Rodgers is playing in a meaningless game and could also hurt their chance at a better draft pick. 




Jacksonville Jaguars @ Miami Dolphins (-4) - Miami looks to recover after a no show on the road against the Vikings.





Chicago Bears (-4)(LOCK) @ San Francisco 49ers - The 49ers have had a few nice wins in a row against th Broncos and Seahawks.  Look for the Bears' #1 defense to take over which has been setting opposing quarterbacks 30 years which is carried by Khalil Mack who the 49ers tried to trade for.

Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals(+14) - With Gurley out, the Rams may not completely trash the Cardinals.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+5.5) @ New Orleans Saints - The Saints appear to be in the driver's seat for a first round bye although the Steeelers may make this one close even with the the departure of Connors.




Kansas City Chiefs  @ Seattle Seahawks (+2.5) - This is certainly more of a toss up game especially since Seattle's 12th man.






Denver Broncos(-3) @ Oakland Raiders - This is a must win game for the Broncos in terms of their reputation as 3 straight losses to the 49ers Browns, and Raiders would probably mean that the Broncos head coach could be on the hot seat for the foreseeable future.

Week 16 Against the Spread: 7-9
Week 16 Straight Up: 9-7
Week 16 Locks: 3-1

2018 Season against the Spread- 95-94-4
2018 Season Straight Up- 115-75-2
2018 Locks- 16-14-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 221-225-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110  
Posted by at No comments:

Sunday, December 16, 2018

Week 15 Picks

Italicized for win
Bolded for spread

Arizona Cardinals @ Atlanta Falcons (-9) - The Cardinals offensive line is decimated and the Falcons could bounce back in home.  Patrick Peterson vs. Julio Jones should be an interesting matchup

Oakland Raiders (+3.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals - The Raiders are looking a bit feisty after a nice win against the Steeler and the Bengals are reeling without AJ Green. 

Miami Dolphins (+8) @ Minnesota Vikings - The Dolphins appear to be heading in the right direction after a nice win against the Patriots while the Vikings with Cousins in the helm have struggled against team above .500. 

Dallas Cowboys @ Indianapolis Colts (-3)(LOCK) - A must win for the Colts and the Cowboys are a virtual lock to make the playoffs. 

Tampa Buccaneers @ Baltimore Ravens (-7.5) - Ravens are playing pretty well with Lamar Jackson that almost pulled out a win at Kansas City with RG3 and only didn't win due to a poor non-call pass interference. 

Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills (-2.5) - Josh Allen could be enough to carry the Bills at home.  Bills has a -52 point differential in the 4th quarter but the cold weather could favor them. 

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears (-4)(LOCK) - Look for the Packers to comeback to earth after a bounce from firing their head coach.  The Bears look to get revenge from their meltdown against the Packers. 

Washington Redskins (+7.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars - Josh Johnson did look alright in a few drives but overall it is still befuddling why the Redskins didn't work out Colin Kaepernick, whose resume of making the Super Bowl is better than anyone the Redskins tried out including EJ Manuel and Mark Sanchez. 

Tennessee Titans @ New York Giants (-2.5) - The Giants appear to be a solid team even without Odell Beckham while the Titans are heading in the wrong direction.  It is too bad for the Giants that they are only finding their gear in the 2nd half of the season. 

Seattle Seahawks (-3.5)(LOCK) @ San Francisco 49ers - San Francisco lost to Seattle 43-16 two weeks ago.

New England Patriots (+3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers  - For whatever the reason, the Patriots appear to own the Steelers.  James Conner is unlikely to play

Philadelphia Eagles @ Los Angeles Rams (-8) - Eagles defensive backs are decimated without Carson Wentz and have a decimated secondary. 

New Orleans Saints (-6.5) @ Carolina Panthers - Cam Newton appears to banged up and the Saints should take them out to maintain their conference lead.

Week 15 Against the Spread: 2-1
Week 15 Straight Up: 2-1
Week 15 Locks: 1-0

2018 Season against the Spread- 90-86-4
2018 Season Straight Up- 108-69-2
2018 Locks- 14-13-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 221-225-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110  
Posted by at No comments:

Thursday, December 13, 2018

Week 15 Thursday Night Pick

Italicized for win
Bolded for spread

Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) - These are two evenly matched teams.  The Chiefs ranks 1st in weighted DVOA (team's efficiency comparing success on every single play) while the Chargers are ranked 2nd.  The Chargers have lost their previous 4 meetings by double digits.  The home team is also 8-3 on a short week.  Tyreek Hill who was questionable for the week is also playing.  Running Melvin Gordon is also ruled out for the Chargers.  Even though the Chiefs are reeling a bit without Kareem Hunt, they have beaten the Chargers by double digits in their last 4 meetings and the short week will probably favor them here. 


Week 14 Against the Spread: 8-8
Week 14 Straight Up: 10-6
Week 14 Locks: 2-2

2018 Season against the Spread- 88-85-4
2018 Season Straight Up- 106-68-2
2018 Locks- 14-13-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 221-225-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110  

Posted by at No comments:
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)