Sunday, September 24, 2023

2023 NFL Week 3 Picks


Through 2 weeks, DeShaun Watson has been 
outplayed by Baker Mayfield


Tennessee Titans @ Cleveland Browns (-3) - Derrick Henry is banged up with a toe injury although he has been better on the road last season.  Jerome Ford faces a tough running defense so Watson needs to get it going against a below average Titans defense.  Tannehill and Hopkins have had trouble scoring this season.  

Atlanta Falcons @ Detroit Lions(-3) - Top rookie selection running backs Bijan Robinson and Gibbs go against each other.  Gibbs could have a bigger game with Montgomery out.  Desmond Ridder gets his passes tipped a lot but only has 1 interception for the year.  

New Orleans Saints @ Green Bay Packers (-2) -  Jordan Love is throwing more TDs than expected although faces a tough test against the Saints defense.  Tony Jones Jr. is likely to get more work in this one for the Saints than Kendre Miller with Jamaal Williams out.

Denver Broncos @ Miami Dolphins (-6.5)  - Jaylen Waddle is out although Tyreek Hill.   the Broncos defense has not looed sharp especially after giving up a big lead against Washington defense.  The Bronco offense still needs to get in sync which could take more time.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Minnesota Vikings (+1) - Two 0-2 teams goes against each other.  Austin Ekeler is out.  The Vikings could have a chance to be number 1 in the division though.  

New England Patriots (-3) @ New York Jets - Battle of the defenses; likely turnovers will decide this game.  Mac Jones looks about as bad as Zach Wilson.  Breece Hall only had 4 carries last week. 

Buffalo Bills @ Washington Commanders (+6.5) - Sam Howell has been pressured a lot which could be a bad matchup.  Washington's defense got into gear more in the 2nd half against the Broncos as Chase Young made his return.  The Bills are likely going to be able to put up points, it will be interesting to see if Washington's offense can keep up.  

Houston Texans (+10) @ Jacksonville Jaguars - The Jaguars did lay a dud against the Chiefs but could be due for a big performance.  Still, the Texans are a division rival who did happen to beat the Jaguars last season in Jacksonville.  

Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens (-8)(LOCK) -  Minshew takes the place of Richardson.  Justice Hill is out for the Ravens so Melvin Gordon is activated.  

Carolina Panthers @ Seattle Seahawks (-6) -   Bryce Young out although perhaps the Panthers offense could do better in the short term with Andy Dalton taking over.  Although playing in Seattle could be a struggle.  

Chicago Bears @ Kansas City Chiefs (-12.5) - Justin Fields could have trouble putting it together on the road against the Chiefs.  

Dallas Cowboys (-12.5) @ Arizona Cardinals - Diggs is out which could be troublesome.  Still the Cowboys are a step up from the Giants and Commanders defense which could mean the Cardinals finally get blown out.   

Pittsburg Steelers(+2.5)(LOCK) @ Las Vegas Raiders - Steelers have struggled against running backs so Jacobs could have a good week.  Then again, the Raiders rush defense isn't much better.  The Steelers looked great against the Browns and are looing to carry over that momentum.  

Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5.5) - Gainwell comes back to the lineup. the Eagles have yet to blow out an opponent so this game could be relatively close against a 2-0 Bucs team.    

Los Angeles Rams (+2) @ Cincinnati Bengals - This game is a bit confusing if Joe Burrow is out which Ja'Marr Chase seemed to imply earlier this week.  The Rams have been playing well shorthanded and could take the Bengals 0-3 if the Bengals don't have their starting quarterback.  


Week 3 Against the Spread - 1-0

Week 3 Straight up - 1-0

2023 Against the Spread - 16-16
2023 Locks - 3-2
2023 Straight Up - 17-15


2022 Against the spread - 133-124-7

2022 Straight up - 185-92-1

2021 Against the Spread- 151-127-1

2021 Straight Up- 162-101-1
2021 Locks - 10-5

2020 Against the Spread- 124-140-6
2020 Week Straight Up - 173-97-1
2020 Locks- 24-24-2

2019 Season Against the Spread- 128-113-3
2019 Season Straight Up- 158-103
2019 Locks - 21-19-2
2020 Postseason against the Spread- 8-3
2020 Postseason Straight Up- 7-4


2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110 

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