Sunday, September 27, 2020

2020 NFL Week 3 Picks

The Falcons/Bears game is still on- AJ Terrell is being placed 
on the COVID-19 injury reserve- no other player has tested postive. 

Italicized for win

Bolded for spread

Sunday

Houston Texans @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-4) LOCK - Pittsburgh is playing well, shutting down the running game the Giants and managed to hold on against a frisky Broncos team. Normally, the Texans would be expected to bounce back but they may have trouble without DeAndre Hopkins.  Houston really hopes they can get Brandin Cooks and Will Fuller going.  The Texans have struggled against the run.  

Cincinnati Bengals (+4.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles - Can the Eagles get it together against a Bengals team that has managed to keep it close against the Chargers and the Browns?  The Eagles have shown some level of competence with the return of Miles Sanders but there are still concerns over its offensive line and defense. 

San Francisco 49ers (-4.5) LOCK @ New York Giants - Saquon Barkley is out so the Giants offense goes against the 49ers whose defense is banged up but did enough to make the Jets look terrible.  Still, look for the 49ers to follow the game plan of running the ball plus Nick Mullens has shown himself to be adequate quarterback.  

Las Vegas Raiders (+6) @ New England Patriots -  This is Jon Gruden's first game at New England since the snow game.   The Raiders are 2-0 and are coming off a good win against the Saints where their defense may not be getting enough credit for slowing down Drew Brees.  Cam Newton has been playing great but the Patriots defense did struggle last week against the Seahawks.  

Tennessee Titans (-2.5) @ Minnesota Vikings - The Vikings defense has been playing badly. AJ Brown is out although that could just mean bigger roles for Jonnu Smith and Corey Davis.  The Titans running game with Henry could get it going as well.  

Washington Football Team @ Cleveland Browns (-7) - This line seems a bit high at first glance but then you have to remember that the Browns passing and running game seem to be back in order with a strong game against the Bengals plus they have had a few extra days to prepare for this one.  Cleveland should be a bit nervous about Washington's pass rush and their ability to slow down running backs.  That being said, Kareem Hunt has been a very efficient running back running alongside Nick Chubb.  Browns' cornerback Denzel Ward did an excellent job against AJ Green last week which makes an interesting matchup against Terry McClaurin. 

Las Angeles Rams (+2.5) @ Buffalo Bills - This is a toss up game. Moss is out which opens the door for Singletary to have a bigger game.  So far, the Rams wins have been slightly more impressive.  Steffon Diggs being shaded by Jalen Ramsey is a key matchup in this one.   

Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons (-3) - Matt Ryan looks to rebound after a devastating collapse that may have not been his fault given that his special teams didn't recover an onside kick plus a drop by Julio Jones in the endzone, who will not play in this one.  The Falcons defense may be out of sorts.  That being said, this seems like a game where the Bears could regress a bit to the mean.  

Carolina Panthers @ Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5) - Mike Davis makes his debut but may struggle against a solid Panthers defense.  Herbert looks like a solid upgrade over Tyrod Taylor.  Look for Ekeler and Kelley to punish the Panthers' run defense.     

New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts (-11.5)(LOCK)-  The Colts already failed to cover a big spread earlier in the season but that was to a division rival and the Jets look pretty bad without most of their skill position players.   

Dallas Cowboys (+4.5) @ Seattle Seahawks  - The Seahawks have been torching teams but currently have the worst passing defense.  The Cowboys are certainly in that tier with a great receiving corp to make this a higher scoring came.  Dallas will be without their starting left tackle although they still managed to complete the comeback against the Falcons without him.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers  @ Denver Broncos (+5.5) - Look for Noah Fant and Melvin Gordon to get involved in this one with the absence of Cortland Sutton.  The Bucs did rebound after their opening week loss against the Panthers, but Denver's defense should provide a tougher test even without Von Miller.

Detroit Lions (+5.5) @ Arizona Cardinals - Kenyan Drake looks to atone for his early season struggles against a Lions defense that struggled containing Aaron Jones last week.  Kenny Golladay returns which means the Lions could keep it close in what could be a high scoring game.   These two teams did tie last year.   

Green Bay Packers (+3.5)(LOCK)  @ New Orleans Saints -  The Packers have appeared sharper so far this season than the Saints. Both teams will be without their star receivers meaning that each team will have to rely upon their star running backs.  The Saints defense showed vulnerabilities against Derek Carr last week.  Aaron Rodgers has been much sharper than Drew Brees to start the season.

Monday

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) @ Baltimore Ravens - The Chiefs don't appear to be clicking on all cylinders like the Ravens.  That being said, perhaps theydid come in a bit shocked against a division rival last week and did manage to pull out a win.  


2020 Week 3 against the Spread- 0-1
2020 Week 3 Straight up- 0-1
2020 Against the Spread- 20-13
2020 Week Straight Up - 24-9
2020 Locks- 5-3

2019 Season Against the Spread- 128-113-3
2019 Season Straight Up- 158-103
2019 Locks - 21-19-2
2020 Postseason against the Spread- 8-3
2020 Postseason Straight Up- 7-4


2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7

2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110 

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