Sunday, September 13, 2020

2020 NFL Week 1 Picks


Dan Snyder tells the Wall Street Journal that "if 
the Washington Football Team name catches on, 
he would be happy to have it as our permanent name." 

Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) @ Washington Football Team - The Eagles will not have Miles Sanders in this one but look for Boston Scott to fill the void.  DeSean Jackson roasted Washington's secondary in the last game and expect Ertz to get it going if.  That being said, it will be interesting to see how utilizes Washington utilizes its front four especially the rookie number 2 overall draft pick Chase Young and how much progress Haskins made this offseason.  The Eagles have been great against the run so it will be an interesting test for rookie running back Antonio Gibson, some who are predicting to have a break out year.

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (-6.5) -  Look for the Patriots to get revenge on the Dolphins who beat them on the last game of the season which cost the Patriot a bye.  The Patriots defense had at least a couple defensive touchdowns in their first game at home against the Dolphins last season.  

Green Bay Packers (+2.5) @ Minnesota Vikings - The Vikings will have Dalvin Cook back with a newly minted extension.  This would be a spot where I would normally expect Rodgers to struggle on the road but who knows, perhaps the Packers can keep it close without any fans.

Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+8) - How bad are the Jaguars going to be this season? They have the lowest projected wins according to Vegas (perhaps because the Giants and Washington Football Team are in the same division).  They just cut Leonard Fournette.  Perhaps the Jaguars can put up some points with Minshew Magic although the Colts should certainly get their running game.  Will it be the veteran Marlon Mack or the new rookie Johnathan Taylor who gets the lion share will be an interesting story to follow.


Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions (-3) (LOCK) - The Lions get Stafford back while they were 3-4 they actually almost knocked off the defending champions Kansas City Chiefs.  The Bears in the meantime return Mitchell Trubisky at quarterback who wasn't as terrible as you might think during the second half of the 2019 season; Trubisky has thrown 3 touchdowns in each of his last 3 games against the Lions although Stafford didn't play in two of them.  Perhaps the Lions anemic running game will be aided by the recently acquired Adrian Peterson.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Carolina Panthers (+3.5) - The Carolina Panthers while boasting the best running back in football in Christian McCaffery could get it going against a Raiders defense that wasn't great last season.  Terry Bridgewater after all was an effective starting quarterback but that was when he was paired with Michael Thomas and Sean Payton as an offensive coordinator.  This could be a high scoring game with the Raiders running back Josh Jacobs expected to have a big season, and the Raiders addressing their wide receiver corp through the draft.  


New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (-6.5) - The last time these two teams faced off opening day resulted in a Jets' 4th quarter collapse which resulted in the Bills coming away with a victory.  I suspect the Jets can keep it close potentially if they utilize Leveon Bell effectively but the Bills offense should be more explosive this season with Steffon Diggs.  


Baker Mayfield will become the first QB in @NFL history to make his first 30 career starts for the same team but under four different head coaches.


Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)(LOCK) - Surprisingly, the Browns did beat the Ravens last season but then finished with a disappointing finish.  Can Cleveland turn Odell Beckahm back into one of the best receivers in the game and improve on Baker Mayfield's accuracy issues?  Either way, Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt should play better under a better Cleveland Brown's line than last year who need to control time of possession to have a chance in this one.  The Ravens are still going to be an explosive offense with Lamar Jackson returning.

Seattle Seahawks  @ Atlanta Falcons (+2) - The Falcons on paper look like they will be great offensively.  Some are even projecting Calvin Ridley to be as stellar as Julio Jones this season although one has to think Julio Jones has other ideas.  Russell Wilson will likely let it loose.  Questions still remain with the Seahawks backfield in Carson coming off a season ending injury.  I expect Gurley to be the x factor and could have a decent performance early in the season.   

LA Chargers @ Cincinnati Bengals (+3) - Joe Burrow makes his first start against Tyrod Taylor who may be a slight upgrade to what Phillip Rivers did last season.  I think the return of AJ Green may help the Bengals pull off an upset.

Arizona Cardinals (+6.5) @ San Francisco 49ers - The authorities are monitoring air quality to make sure they can play.  Can Kyler Murray get it going against a 49ers team who he played surprisingly well with and especially with the addition of DeAndre Hopkins?  Look for the 49ers to utilize both George Kittle and Jordan Reed with Deebo Samuels out.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3.5) @ New Orleans Saints - Tom Brady vs. Drew Brees should be a fun matchup.  Both quarterbacks have similar strengths of being experienced and similar weaknesses of not getting the deep ball down the field.  Normally I would give the advantage to the home team covering comfortably but in reality this is a pick'em with perhaps a slight edge to New Orleans with their defense. 

Dallas Cowboys @ LA Rams (+3) - The Rams will look to atone for not getting to the playoffs while the Cowboys have lofty expections with three great wide receivers and a QB under a franchise tag.  I do think the Rams could come away with a victory due to Sean McVay coming up with an effective game plan.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5)(LOCK) @ NY Giants - The Steelers appear to have a lot of weapons for Big Ben to succeed although his agei s a concern. Look for Diontae Johnson to complement Juju-Smith Scchuster and James Connor is healthy for now.  Saquon Barkley can keep the Giants in this game but Daniel Jones was turnover prone although at times electric.  The big thing is that the Giants still look like one of the worst defensive teams.  

Tennessee Titans (-2.5)(LOCK) @ Denver Broncos  - The Broncos best players appear to be dropping like flies including Courtland Sutton and defensive end Von Miller.  Expect this to be an interesting defensive battle.  Two of the hardest people to tackle are Derrick Henry and AJ Brown who look to get back to the playoffs again.  


2020 Week 1 Against the Spread- 1-0
2020 Week 1 Straight Up - 1-0

2019 Season Against the Spread- 128-113-3
2019 Season Straight Up- 158-103
2019 Locks - 21-19-2
2020 Postseason against the Spread- 8-3
2020 Postseason Straight Up- 7-4


2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7

2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110 


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