Sunday, December 29, 2019

Week 17 Picks

Marshawn Lynch was serving tequila shots
at a parking lot tailgate in Oakland eight days ago
for the Raiders' last game there.
Now he's gonna start for the Seahawks in the playoffs.



Chicago Bears (+1) @ Minnesota Vikings- The Minnesota Vikings have nothing to play for given they clinched a playoff spot.    Kirk Cousins lost his week 17 matchup last season to this same Bears team and will be without his two top running backs.  The Bears could at least get back to .500 with a win plus Trubisky is also playing for his job.



Atlanta Falcons (+1) @ Tampa Buccaneers - Look for the Falcons to continue to play well off of their 3 game winning streak especially against a Bucaneers team that is banged up at the wide receiver position. 

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (-16) - The New England Patriots look to take care of business to secure a first round bye.  The Patriots defense should be able to lock up the Miami Dolphins' MVP and leading rusher Ryan Fitzpatrick.  Sony Michel should get a lot of work who has averaged 20 carries in the last 2 weeks. 

Green Bay Packers (-9.5)(LOCK) @ Detroit Lions - The Packers have a possibility with a first round bye with a win.  Aaron Jones looks to add to his 16 touchdown season.  Aaron Rodgers could bounce back against a poor Lions' defense. 

Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5) - Nick Chubb leads the league with 1453 yards for  but perhaps the Bengals pull out a home win against a division rival if Joe Mixon can bounce back from his stomach bug. 

Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) - The Chiefs could technically clinch a bye with a win but it seems unlikely that the Dolphins will beat the Patriots even if the Patriots are 7-5 against the Dolphins in their last 12 matchups.  Phillip Rivers could struggle against a surging Chiefs defense. 

New York Jets(+1.5) @ Buffalo Bills - The Bills are likely to rest their starters with nothing to play.  The Jets could pull out a win against the Bills backups. 

Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints (-13.5)  - The Saints are playing for homefield advantage which would make them heavy favorites in the NFC.  The Saints only beat the Panthers by 3 points earlier this season although Will Grier may be a downgrade at the starting quarterback position over Kyle Allen.

Tennessee Titans (-3.5) (LOCK) @ Houston Texans - The Houston Texans can technically clinch a bye if the Chiefs lose, which seems unlikely.  The Titans have much more to play for given that they can clinch a playoff spot. 

Washington Redskins (+11) @ Dallas Cowboys - Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper are banged up which may reduce the Cowboys' chances to make this game a blow out.  While Washington has little to play for, they have generally covered against the spread given that they run the ball more under new head coach Bill Callahan. 

Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars - The Jaguars' defense appears to have given up on this season. 

Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5)(LOCK) @ New York Giants - The Eagles are playing for a playoff spot so they should give it their all.  That being said, strange things happen in this rivalry.  Plus the Eagles defense has struggled against below average opponents including the New York Giants, Miami Dolphins, and Washington Redskins where the Eagles would be 0-3 against the spread if not for a garbage time touchdown against the Redskins.  That being said, this spread is much lower.  Plus the Eagles outscored the Giants 20-0 in their matchup earlier this season although it was without Daniel Jones.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-2) (LOCK) @ Baltimore Ravens - Given the Ravens are going to play their backups, the Steelers should be locked in to keep their playoff hopes alive.  Robert Griffin should have his work cut out against the Ravens defense. 

Oakland Raiders (+3.5) @ Denver Broncos - The Raiders look to keep their playoff hopes alive but could struggle against a Broncos team that is playing well. 

Arizona Cardinals (+7) @ Los Angeles Rams - The Cardinals could keep it close if the Rams decide to play their backups.




San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks (+3.5) - Seattle is without Chris Carson but could do enough to keep it close against a 49ers team they beat earlier in the season. 

Week 17 Against the Spread- 9-6-1
Week 17 Straight Up - 9-7
Week 17 Locks- 2-1-1


2019 Season Against the Spread- 112-104-2
2019 Season Straight Up- 142-97
2019 Locks - 19-17-2

2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7

2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110 

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