Sunday, December 15, 2019

Week 15 Picks

Winston leads the league in both touchdowns and interceptions
(via CBSSportsline)

Italicized for win
Bolded for spread

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) @ Detroit Lions - Jameis Winston is coming off a thumb injury.  While Winston practiced earlier in the week by throwing a tennis ball, he is back to throwing a full sized football in practice. Winston looks to become one of the few quarterbacks that has thrown for over 5,000 yards in a season, and may be the first one in that club to lead the league in interceptions.  The Bucs will be hurt by the departure of Mike Evans although perhaps Justin Watson and Breshad Perriman can fill the void.

The Lions offense could get a boost by playing a poor Bucs pass defense. Kenny Golladay has posted an impressive season while Danny Amendola looks to fill in for an injured Marvin Jones Jr. That being said, David Blough was unimpressive generating enough offense which he may have to do if this game does become a shootout, although perhaps he can be aided by a pick six by Winston.

Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5)(LOCK) @ Washington Redskins -  Apparently the Redskins will look to rely more upon the passing game with Derrius Guice out of the lineup as Washington looks to see what they have with their rookie quarterback Dwayne Haskins.  Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson should see an increase in their workloads with Derrius Guice is out for defense although the Eagles defense has been strong against the run.

After a shaky start against the New York Giants, the Eagles defense looked much better against Eli Manning, as the Giants failed to run a single play in Eagles' territory in the 2nd half.  A big question is whether the Eagles can manufacture enough points with their fair share of injuries to the wide receiving corp although they appeared to show some fortitude in the 2nd half and overtime by scoring three offensive touchdowns.  Miles Sanders and David Boston could have big games from the backfield through the passing attack




Chicago Bears (+5.5) @ Green Bay Packers - I am curious to see how Rodgers responds after a relatively poor effort against the Redskins, throwing for less than 200 yards and only 1 touchdown.  Rodgers now goes against a division rival that the Packers have owned at Lambeau.  Davante Adams is playing with an injured toe which has weakened the Packers passing attack.  Perhaps the Bears can keep it this close this time around with the improved play of Mitchell Trubisky.  The cold weather could lead to a low scoring game which could lower the margin of victory for the Packers.  While the Bears defense has suffered a few injuries, they did manage to contain the Packers to only 10 points last time around but only manufactured 3 points.


Announcers are in awe of Rodgers after he completes 
a wide open 4 yard pass with no pressure around him

New England Patriots (-10) @ Cincinnati Bengals - The Patriots look to bounce back after consecutive losses to the Texans and Chiefs against a Bengals team that has been playing much better lately.  That being said, the Patriots offense while inconsistent may be reinvigorated against a relatively weak Bengals defense.  Look for Sony Michel to potentially get it going on the the ground or whoever the Pats decide to insert at the running back position.  The Bengals will try to rely upon running back Joe Mixon who has come on strong in the 2nd half of the season.

Houston Texans (+3) @ Tennessee Titans - This is an interesting division rivalry game.  Since Tanehill has been inserted as a starting quarterback, only the Baltimore Ravens have had a better offense.  That being said, it looks like Derrick Henry may be a gametime decision.  While the Texans did struggle against the Broncos, perhaps they had their guard down and could respond with another impressive road victory when they beat the Patriots just two weeks ago.

Seattle Seahawks (-6)(LOCK) @ Carolina Panthers - While Seattle's defense may struggle a bit to contain Christian McCaffrey, the Seahawks should have their way offensively.  Chris Carson as the sole running back has a favorable matchup against a below average Panthers' rush defense.  Plus Tyler Lockett has a favorable matchup against the Panthers who have struggled to defend quick receivers in the slot.  The Panthers seemed to have mailed it in after they fired Ron Rivera after 9 years.

Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs (-10) - The Kansas City Chiefs should not take the Denver Broncos lightly.  The Broncos look to try upset another team that is fresh off a win against the Patriots as they did beat the Houston Texans last week.  That being said, the Chiefs offense will probably avoid mental lapses that they had against the Patriots.  The snowy conditions may not slow down the Chiefs' passing attack.

Miami Dolphins (+3) @ New York Giants - Eli Manning does get Sterling Shephard back and the Dolphins defense hasn't been great.  That being said, the Dolphins almost pulled off an upset against the Jets and will probably have Davante Parker back.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5) @ Oakland Raiders - Both teams appear to be reeling after starting off the season well.  While the Raiders may get Josh Jacobs back, the Jaguars will be without their best wideout in DJ Chark.  Overall, the Jaguars have a road to keeping it close with some Minshew Magic and a strong running game lead by Leonard Fournette.  The Raiders appear to be motivated even though their playoff hopes decreased from 7 percent to 1 percent after their loss last week.

Cleveland Browns (-3)(LOCK) @ Arizona Cardinals - This should be a high scoring game.  Kyler Murray has struggled since coming off a bye as he was not only dealing with a hamstring injury but faced a tough Steelers defense that forced him into some poor decisions.  The Browns in the meantime look to take advantage of a porous Cardinals defense.  Mayfield could have a strong game.  The dual head running back attack of Chubb and Hunt should be enough for the Browns to separate even if Odell Beckham fails to breakout in another game.

Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) @ Los Angeles Chargers - The Vikings need to be motivated in this one in order to keep their divisional aspirations alive.  Adam Thielen returns and could give the Vikings a much needed boost.  That being said, Dalvin Cook is the key against a relatively poor Chargers defense.  Phillip Rivers has been playing better lately although could struggle against a solid Vikings defense.  Ekeler could fare better than Gordon in this matchup given that the Vikings run defense is stronger than their passing defense.

Atlanta Falcons(+10.5) @ San Francisco 49ers - The 49ers defense will be missing a lot of defensive starters including Richard Sherman as Atlanta could manufacture points.  San Francisco could also be due for a letdown after a great win against the Saints.  That being said, the 49ers will have no trouble putting up points.  While the Falcons may have enough to slow down Raheem Mostert, they will be unlikely to contain Deebo Samuels, Emmanuel Sanders, and George Kittle.  Matt Ryan could have a good week despite the loss of Calvin Ridley.

Los Angeles Rams (-1.5) @ Dallas Cowboys - The Rams look to keep their playoff hopes alive against a Dallas team that has struggled lately.  Jared Goff has struggled on the road but the new look Rams have decided to rely upon their running game lead by Todd Gurley.  This has resulted in a lower snap count for receivers like Cooper Kupp and Brandin Cooks.  A key for the Rams will be exploiting the Cowboys defense against slot receivers where either Kupp or Woods may lineup.  Dak Presscott will likely have to look off whoever Jalen Ramsey covers in this game but could do enough to make this game entertaining.  That being said, Dallas appears to be in some sort of funk that seems to have plagued the entire NFC East.

Buffalo Bills @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-1) - Both teams would make the playoffs if the season ended today.  The Bills offense may be more dynamic given the mobile QB rushing attack of Josh Allen.  However, the Steelers will try to blanket the Bills top wideout John Brown with their stingy defense.  Singletary could struggle running the ball.  With the return of James Conner could put the Steelers over the top against a Bills team that hasn't been great against the run all season.


Indianapolis Colts @ New Orleans Saints (-10) - The Saints struggled putting away the after a masterful performance by Drew Brees and it ultimately cost them.  Alvin Kamara needs to get on track for the Saints to have a realistic chance of making a deep playoff run especially given how bad the Saints defense has been.  Provided that TY Hilton is out, I do not think that the Colts can keep up with the Saints to challenge them in a meaningful way especially given that the Saints may be motivated coming off a loss.  So far this season, the Saints are 2-0 against the spread following a loss.


Week 15 Picks Against the Spread- 0-1
Week 15 Straight Up- 1-0


2019 Season Against the Spread- 103-98
2019 Season Straight Up- 124-84
2019 Locks - 16-15

2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7

2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110 

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