Sunday, October 14, 2018

Week 6 NFL Picks

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5.5) @ Atlanta Falcons  - Jameis Winston could have a big week coming off a bye with the Falcons defense being decimated.  In five starts against Atlanta, Winston has 12 touchdowns and two interceptions.  The Bucs do have more wins than the Falcons and actually played the Steelers much closer than the Falcons did in their Monday night matchup.  That being said, the Falcons are at home and could recover in a division rivalry game. Matt Ryan has a 144.7 passing rating in his last two home games but overall this could be a close game especially considering that both teams are division rivals. 

Carolina Panthers (+1) @ Washington Redskins - The Washington Redskins have had no answer for Cam Newton  although the Redskins have added a few defensive tackles of Alabama (Allen/Payne), it is still concerning how Washington was unable to contain New Orleans' wide receivers.  That being said, Newton's wide receivers are not as threatening.  Greg Olsen returns which could give the Panthers a boost and Newton's mobility has propelled the Panthers to five consecutive wins against the Redskins. Norv Turner, offensive coordinator of the Panthers, returns to coach against his former team and was also Alex Smith's offensive coordinator in San Francisco. 

Seattle Seahawks (-3) @ Oakland Raiders - Marshawn Lynch goes against his former team a week after getting PTSD from Derek Carr throwing an interception at the goal line instead of handing the ball off at the goal line much like Seattle did in the Super Bowl a few years back. On a side note, it wasn't necessarily a terrible decision for the Seahawks to call a passing play in that situation but Russell Wilson ended up making a terrible read and missed the linebacker in coverage.   This game will be played in London, neither team has much of an advantage travelling from the West Coast.  Chris Carson had 116 yards last week for Seattle which looms large against a poor Raiders defense. 

LA Chargers (-1) @ Cleveland Browns- Derwin James has lead the Chargers' secondary with 24 tackles and 3 sacks.  While Cleveland came away with a surprising win against the Ravens,  scoring 6 points in regulation will not be enough to get it done against the Chargers.

Indianapolis Colts @ NY Jets (-2.5) -  The Jets have failed to put together consecutive wins but Andrew Luck has looked pretty inconsistent from week to week.  Isiah Crowell had 219 yards from scrimmage for the Jets and top wideout for the Colts TY Hilton is expected to miss this one.

Arizona Cardinals (+10.5) @ Minnesota Vikings - The Vikings demise has been exaggerated after losing to the Bills but easily dismantled the Eagles.  Maybe the Vikings get back on track against Arizona. The Vikings can't afford to take another rookie quarterback lightly. 

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinatti Bengals (-2.5) - On paper, the Bengals appear to have the better offensive and defensive team but have lost 5 consecutive games to the Steelers.    Perhaps the Bengals can break streak with LeVeon Bell out. 

Buffalo Bills (+9.5) @ Houston Texans  - Houston is looking to string together a nice winning streak.  The Bills did well against the Titans although their offense looked terrible and one would expect the Texans' wideouts to edge out the Bills. 

Chicago Bears @ Miami Dolphins (+3) - The Bears are coming off a bye.  Perhaps Miami can get it together after blowing a big lead to the Bengals in what is a toss up game. 

LA Rams @ Denver Broncos (+7)  - The Broncos did a good job slowing down the Chiefs but overall the Rams are not in the same boat as being division rivals.  Keenum only has a 77 passer rating and goes against one of his former teams.  Given the cold conditions and high altitude of Denver, and that some of the Rams receivers are banged up, this could be a game that could be close. 
Baltimore Ravens  @ Tennessee Titans (+2) - Both teams suffered disappointing losses to lesser teams.  Overall, the Titans loss was worse but at the end of the day, the Titans have homefield advantage. 

Jacksonville Jaguars (-3)(LOCK) @ Dallas Cowboys -  The Jaguars will look to get back on track against the Cowboys who do not have reliable downfield targets.  The Jaguars have a reliable defense that can slow down Ezekiel Elliot.

Kansas City Chiefs @ New England Patriots (-3.5) - In this matchup of the top teams one would .  The Patriots under Bellichick are undefeated against quarterbacks under 25.  While the Chiefs took care of the Pats last season, it is hard not to like the Pats here with all their weapons returning and Mahones struggling over the past 2 weeks. 

San Francisco 49ers (+9.5) @ Green Bay Packers - Aaron Rodgers is banged up and the 49ers did manage to put up 450 yards last week against Arizona. 

Week 6 Against the Spread: 0-1
Week 5 Straight Up: 0-1

2018 Season against the Spread- 26-35-3
2018 Season Straight Up- 35-27-2
2018 Locks- 6-6-1

2017-18 Against the Spread- 221-225-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-10  

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