Tuesday, October 16, 2018

NBA Preview and Over/Under for the 2018-19 Season

I was 12-18 and 2-3 for my locks for the 2017-18 season
I was 18-12 and 4-3 for my locks for the 2016-17 season.  
I was 16-13-1  and 4-1 in my locks for the 2015-16 season.

EASTERN CONFERENCE





1) Boston Celtics-  OVER/UNDER 58.5 Wins OVER - 59-23- The Celtics get Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward back.  One would expect that Jason Tatum or Jaylen Brown will take a step towards being all star caliber.  Of course, the Celtics will need Al Horford to keep up his great plya.  Joakim Noah, his ex-college teammate, is currently a free agent, but Horford's has less wear and tear and has a reliable 3 point shot. 



2) Toronto Raptors- 55 Wins - OVER- 59-23 - Kawhi Leonard looked pretty healthy in preseason and if that's the case, he is an upgrade over DeRozan especially on the defensive end.  The Raptors were also successful in re-signing 6th man Fred Van Fleet.  Plus an underlooked factor in the trade was that the Raptors did get Danny Green.  Overall I think the Raptors will be able to replace Poetl's minutes It will be interesting to see if Kyle Lowry keeps up his all star caliber play as he approaches his 30s. 



3) Philadelphia 76ers -  52.5 - OVER - 54-28 - Philadelphia is a different looking team with the departure of players like Ersan Illysova and Marco Belinelli departing.  That being said I am buying Marelle Fultz stock who did close the season as the youngest player to record a triple double in NBA history.  TJ McConnell is also an effective guard to bring off the bench  I also think guys like Embiid, Siimmons, and Saric to progress and to become even better. 

Bucks fans react to preseason Giannis from r/MkeBucks



4) Milwaukee Bucks - 47.5 - OVER- 49-33 - The most significant upgrade that the Bucks made was to their coaching staff with Mike Buldenholzer.  Overall, Giannis Antetokounmpo will start attempting more 3s which should result in a better regular season and possibly an MVP season.  I am a bit concerned about the Bucks interior defense from its big men like Brook Lopez but  this could be the season where Giannis finally breaks out as the Conference's undisputed best player.  I am down on Eric Bledsoe's game after a disappointing 207-18 campaign encapsulated by Terry Rzier trash talk. I am looking forward to see if Donte DiVincenzo can make a contribution as a rookie.



5) Washington Wizards - 45.5 Wins - OVER - 47-35- One would expect John Wall to be closer to his 2016-17 form then what he showed for most of last season where he missed 41 games. Wall did offseason training with Peter Alexander, who is the same trainer who helped transform Victor Oladipo's game.  I think Bradley Beal's 4th quarter woes will diminish.  I also think Otto Porter is due for a big season especially if he's healthy (Kevin Broom explains why here).    Dwight Howard is also an interesting addition; while Howard's post offense is below average, it isn't necessarily a downgrade over Wall taking mid range jumpers.  Plus I think Howard is more consistent than Gortat when it comes to the regular season on the boards.  Ian Mahinmi has lost weight and added 3 point shot; maybe there is a road for him to become a decent rotation player.  Oubre could be more reliable as an option off his bench.  I do think the Austin Rivers looks bad although I hope Troy Brown, the 19 year old rookie can eventually steal his minutes.



6) Indiana Pacers - 48 Wins-UNDER - 46-36- Tyreke Evans is an interesting offseason addition although the Pacers did lose Lance Stephenson.  Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis are better.  Victor Oladipo had a breakout season although I am worried how much more he can realistically improve his game after shooting a career high from 3 point range.   Doug McBuckets signing may have been overpay. 





7) Miami Heat - 42.5 Wins UNDER - 42-40 - I think Dwayne Wade's farewell tour will be enough to keep the Heat in the playoff mix.  Spoelstra is a good coach.  Miami could also get Jimmy Butler.  That being said, I think Jimmy Butler stays with Minnesota at least until the trade deadline. 



8) Cleveland Cavaliers - 30.5-OVER/LOCK - 38-42 - Overall, I think the Cavaliers have a lot of interesting pieces despite the departures of LeBron James.   I expect Kevin Love to put up numbers close to what he did with the Timberwolves as the number one option.  Plus I think guys like Rodney Hood, Jordan Clarkson, and Larry Nance can also fill out the stat sheet.



9) Detroit Pistons 38.5- UNDER - 36-46 - The Pistons pieces do not seem to fit together in the new era of 3 point shooting which reminds me of the former Pistons teams of Josh Smith, Greg Monroe, and Andre Drummond.  Dwayne Casey is an interesting choice for head coach although it could take him a while to mold young guys like Stanley Johnson into productive players. The Pistons also did not add a rookie from the 2018 NBA draft due to the Blake Griffin trade. 



10) Charlotte Hornets - 35.5 wins- UNDER - 35-47 - The Hornets really had a below average season last season primarily due to poor depth.  Miles Bridges is an interesting rookie although I suspect it will take him a while to become a capable 3 and D player which is something this Hornets' roster really lacks especially since Batum's play has declined since signing his max extension.  Kemba Walker could also be traded midseason. 


11) Brooklyn Nets - 31.5 Wins - UNDER - 30-52 - The Nets have a lot of interesting pieces and a good head coach but overall they could be motivated to tank as the season progresses as they will have their first round pick for the first time in several years.  Jarrett Allen is a nice piece but I'm not sure if the Nets can count on D'Angelo Russell and Spencer Dinwiddie to elevate the Nets towards playoff contention.  



12) Chicago Bulls - 29.5-OVER - 30-52- The Chicago Bulls will not play much defense this season especially if they play Jabari Parker at the three but expect Hoiberg's offense of spreading the floor to propel the Bulls to 30 plus wins.  Lauri Markinen is out for the first month of the season although the rookie Wendell Carter could fill the void.  Zach Lavine can also help fill up the stat sheet.


13) Orlando Magic - 31 wins-UNDER- 29-53 -Everyone is raving about Mo Bamba and Aaron Gordon did improve last season.  The problem of couse is that Orlando still does not really have a solid point guard and limited 3 point shooting although perhaps they culd address that with a midseason trade.  I don't see Orlando's offseason garnering an improvement unless Mo Bamba is an immediate impact rookie and to me he looks more like a project.  



14) New York Knicks - 28.5 Wins- UNDER-  26-56  - Personally I do not think that the coaching change from Jeff Hornacek to David Fizdale will pay immediate dividends especially since he struggled coaching a Memphis team to begin last season.   Kevin Knox and Mitchell Robinson are interesting pieces but they will be without Porzingis who is not slated to return until February.  By the way, I am not buying Kevin Durant as a free agency destination but stranger things have happened in NBA history.



15) Atlanta Hawks 23.5 - UNDER - 23-59

The Atlanta Hawks have a lot of young talent including Trae Young, the point guard from Oklahoma who can nail 3s from 35 feet and Villanova's Omari Spellman could be a gem in the late first round.  That being said, this team may be over its head with a new head coach and after trading Dennis Schroeder, it's leading scorer.

WESTERN CONFERENCE


1) Golden State Warriors -63.5 Wins- OVER- 65-17-  Overall, this team may be fatigued from going to 5 straight NBA Finals.  That being said I expect Curry to be healthy this season after misting 31 games last season.  I also think the Warriors will have some slight motivation to outpace the Rockets this season including the addition of DeMarcus Cousins who should return midseason.



2) Houston Rockets - 55.5 wins- OVER- 57-25 I expect the Rockets to take a slight step backwards after losing Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbou Moute.  The Rockets also traded a promising rookie in De'Anthony Melton to offload Ryan Anderson's contract. Their replacements including Carmelo Anthony, Brandon Knight and Michael Carter Williams may be underwhelming.  That being said, Chris Paul should be healthier than his 2016-2017 campaign and James harden being virtually unguardable in late game situations should still make the Rockets one of the favorites in the West. 





3) Utah -49.5 - OVER - 54-28- Utah really took the league by storm with Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert anchoring the defense.  The Jazz may have pushed the Rockets to six or seven games had Ricky Rubio not gone down with a season ending injury.  The Jazz add Grayson Allen to the mix and Utah having one of the better homecourt advantages could make them being an interesting team in the playoffs.


4) Denver - 47.5 - OVER - 49-33- The Nuggets have another deep team that should capitalize from star play from Jokic as well as guys who hope to regain their all starm form including Paul Millsap and Isaiah Thomas.   I think Jamal Murray and Gary Harris may be the NBA's most underrated backcourt.  Denver's mile high altitude always gives them a boost at home. Zach Lowe thinks the Nuggets are a tier one team. Link




5) LA Lakers - 48.5 UNDER - 47-35- Overall, the Lakers could be one of the top teams when the playoffs roll around but overall it could take a while for the pieces to gel.  LeBron James and Rajon Rondo are players who typically conserve their energy in the regular season.  Guys like Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, Klyle Kuzma, and Josh Hart are promising young players but it can be hard to get it going with LeBron dominating the ball.  Case in point was Jordan Clarkson and Larry Nance who saw a drop in their play playing alongside the King, who were more effective with the Lakers.  While guys like Stephenson and McGee could translate into better play with LeBron off the court, I do not think the Lakers have enough capable 3 point shooting.  The Lakers could be in the market for a trade but ultimately may not do anything major in order to preserve their cap space to go after a major free agent like Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, or Jimmy Butler in the 2019 offseason.




6) San Antonio Spurs - 43.5 OVER- 44-38- The Spurs may have lost good locker room leader like Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker but at least they retained Greg Popovich.  Overall, I think the Spurs will do enough to eek out wins in the regular season with LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar DeRozan carrying the load.  I think Pop is excellent at coming up with defensive schemes to hide his average defenders.



7) Oklahoma City Thunder - 48.5 WINS - UNDER LOCK- 43-39 - Russell Westbrook is injured to start the season with a knee injury as well as Andre Roberson.  The Thunder did retain Paul George but overall still have similar problems in finding scoring from their role players.



8) Portland Trail Blazers- 42.5- OVER-43-39 - Overall, I feel like the Trail Blazer have enough talent to make a viable run in the playoffs despite a poor showing in the playoffs against the Pelicans which was a poor matchup for them.  Luckily, the Trail Blazers return their two best players in Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum.  While they are unlikely to finish 3rd in the West again, they may have enough talent to sneak back in.



9) New Orleans- 45.5 Wins- UNDER- 43-39- Under- Someone has to miss the Western Conference playoffs and I do not feel great picking against a team with Anthony Davis.  However, I expect guys like Mirotic to regress.  I also am not sold then the Pelicans being better in the long term without a healthy DeMarcus Cousins.





10) Minnesota Timberwolves- 41.5- UNDER- 41-41- The turmoil with Jimmy Butler has me reeling on the Timberwolves.  One could possibly be "bullish" on them for multiple reasons.  They have a lot of former Chicago Bulls including Derrick Rose, Jimmy Buler, Luol Deng, and Taj Gibson and Thibs as their head coach.  One can also see a universe where Andrew Wiggins becomes a useful player and KAT takes another step forward.  That being said, I do not feel great about the Timberwolves playing well with the impending turmoil of Butler's trade demands and the Timberwolves bench is still below average.





11) LA Clippers - 36.5 Wins - OVER - 41-41 - The Clippers did finish with 42 wins and Jerry West continues to amass underrated pieces like Tobias Harris and Marcin Gortat while their stars like DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin have moved on.   Overall, they have built their franchise on affordable pieces like Lou Williams and Montrezz Harrell and could be an interesting destination for a premier free agent


12) Dallas Mavericks - 34.5 Wins- OVER - 36-46- Overall, I think the Dallas Mavericks are the big winners from the NBA draft by acquiring Euroleague star Luka Doncic.  Dallas still has a championship coach in Rick Carlise and also added a capable center in DeAndre Jordan. 



13) Memphis Grizzlies - 34.5 - UNDER- 34-48- The Grizzlies  appear to be a team on the decline since the departure of Zach Randolph.  While Mike Conley and Marc Gasol are capable players, I am not a fan of Kyle Anderson outside of the Spurs system and I could see the Grizzlies possibly trying to move one of Gasol or Conley midseason.  Jaren Jackson Jr. is a promising rookie which makes it tough for me to completely write off Memphis. 




14) Phoenix Suns - 29.5- UNDER - 27-55- The Suns have a lot of interesting young pieces including DeAndre Ayton and Mikal Bridges.  Unfortunately, I think it will take another year for Devin booker to truly break out especially since he doesn't have a starting caliber point guard at the moment.  While I like Elie Okobo as a potential starting point guard, it still looks like the Suns ill struggle even with the addition of Trevor Ariza.





15) Sacramento Kings - 25.5 - UNDER - 23-59 - The Sacramento Kings appear to be the running joke of the NBA although I do like some of their pieces including De'Aaron Fox and Marvin Bagley.  The problem of course is that having a big team is no longer advantageous. Someone should tell that to their GM Vlade Divac who was a a former center.  The Kings do not have their pick and do have a decent head coach in Dave Joeger to keep them from possibly having the worst record in NBA history.  But as far as a roster standpoint, I have them as being the worst team in the NBA.


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