Sunday, November 12, 2023

2023 Week 10 NFL Picks



According to Alec Lewis, Josh Dobbs said that Vikings HC Kevin O’Connell was essentially translating calls and mapping out plays mid-huddle, as the play clock was ticking down. KOC called Dobbs’ ability to handle it all one of the most impressive things he’d seen in his career.


Indianapolis Colts (-1.5) (LOCK) @ New England Patriots - In last week's loss against the Commanders, Rhamondre Stevenson had 87 yards but only on 9 carries.  Maybe they will try to get him more involved.  Minshew on the road makes me nervous although the Colts should still be favored to win in this game given that it is in a neutral field.

Cleveland Browns (+6) @ Baltimore Ravens  - Both of these had very impressive performances last week where they obliterated their opponents.  DeShaun Watson looked good, granted it was against lesser competition.  The Ravens should be favored to win a division game at home although an upset isn't out of the question given the letdowns the Ravens have had in the past. 

Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) (LOCK)-  The Steelers look like a more impressive team when they can run the ball like they did against the Titans.   Jordan Love and the Packers had a nice bounce back game against the Rams although the Rams looked like probably the one of the worse teams out there last week.

San Francisco 49ers (-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars - The 49ers have traditionally looked good off of byes and they could be getting a few bodies bac.  The Jaguars have been playing well though and this could be the game of the week.  

New Orleans Saints (-2.5) @ Minnesota Vikings-  Josh Dobbs really pulled a rabbit out of his hat with the performance he had coming just off the Cardinals.  That being said New Orleans defense should be a tougher test.   While Derek Carr hasn't been reliable the changeup of Taysom Hill has provided a nice needed boost.  Michael Thomas was arrested so that could be a bit problematic but I still think the Saints should be favored here. 

Houston Texans (+6.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals - The Texans are coming off a nice win against the Buccaneers where CJ Stroud looed excellent at times although he still made a few rookie mistakes.  The Bengals look like a well oiled machine though.  Joe Burrow appears to have shaken off a lot of the rust.  The Bengals defense made Josh Allen look ordinary times, now it is just a question of whether the Bengals can avoid a let down.

Tennessee Titans @ Tampa Bay Bucaneers (-1) -  Both team looked impressive at times in their losses so this could be another good game although the loser can't like their chances of making the playoffs.  The Bucs homefield may carry the day here although Will Levis will try to repeat what CJ Stroud did the previous week.

Detroit Lions  @ Los Angeles Chargers (+2.5) -  The Chargers offense looked a bit out of sorts against the Jets defense but their defense was able to do slow down the Jets.  Detroit is coming off a bye where they had a lotto think about after their massive loss.


Atlanta Falcons @ Arizona Cardinals (+1.5) - Kyler Murray makes his return.  It will be interesting to see if Murrray can do what Josh Dobbs did the previous week.  For some reason I like the Cardinals to bounce back even though the Falcons appear to be a significantly better team with Heinickie under center.  The only thing that makes me nervous is if Kyler Murray has some rust similar to what Joe Burrow had earlier in the season coming off an injury.


New York Giants (+17.5) @ Dallas Cowboys -  This seems like a get right game for the Cowboys who suffered a devastating loss to the Eagles.  Granted their game was decided by a few plays by inches, the Giants in the meantime look like a G-league team at times with Tommy Devito under center, even though their defense is playing well and Barkley is still a great running back.  Not sure if the Cowboys will cover here but a blowout is certainly in play.


Washington Commanders (+6.5)  @ Seattle Seahawks  - Seattle will loo to bounce back at home against a Washington secondary that has struggle throughout the season.  Perhaps the Commanders will try to prove hey are better without Chase Young although the crowd noise in Seattle could have an effect on Washington's offense.  

New York Jets @ Las Vegas Raiders (+1)(LOCK) -  The Raiders look competent offensively with Aidan O'Çonnell under center even if Davante Adams has taken a bit of a back seat in the new look Raiders offense.  The Jets defense has been playing out of its minds but Zach Wilson continues to struggle,  Until the Jets make a QB change, I will probably continue to fade the Jets, even if they have beaten a few good teams.  

Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills (-7.5) - The Broncos are coming off a nice win against the Chiefs in their previous outing and Sean Payton has had good records coming off byes.  This feels like a Bills get right game though where Allen can show that he's consistent.  On paper, the Bengals defense is better than Broncos although Denver did show it had some toughness when it shut down Chiefs although many division rivalry games can be weighted less.


Week 10 Against the Spread - 1-0

Week 10 Straight up – 0-1

Week 9 Against the Spread - 9-5

Week 9 Straight Up - 10-4

Week 9 Locks - 2-0

2023 Against the Spread - 61-60

2023 Locks - 13-9

2023 Straight Up - 90-43


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