Sunday, October 2, 2016

Week 4 Picks

Eli Manning struggled against Washington and 
the Viking have been great at slowing down offenses
(via NESN)

Indianapolis (-2) @ Jacksonville (at London) - After the Jaguars put up decent offensive numbers against the Packers in week 1, Jacksonville has struggled in recent weeks against the San Diego and Baltimore.  The Colts in the meantime are coming off their first win of the season against the Chargers who beat the Jaguars by 24 points in week 2.  When the game is in London, favorites have covered 11 out of 14 all time and 8 out of 9 times since 2012.  

Cleveland (-7.5) @ Washington - Jay Gruden and Hue Jackson used to work together worked together in Cincinnati, so each team should have familiarity with one another's playbook.  While Washington should come away with a win here, Cleveland may not be walk over because of the emergence of Terrell Pryor at wide receiver. The Browns have managed to lose two single score games to the Ravens and Dolphins which suggests a close battle.

Buffalo @ New England (-7)- While Buffalo came away with their first win of the season against the Cardinals, New England has been playing at a high level especially at home and get Jimmy Garrapolo back.  The Bills offense lost its only game on the road this year to the Ravens as Buffalo's offense only managed to put up 7 points.  

Seattle (+1.5) @ New York Jets - Seattle may have problems protecting Russell Wilson against the Jets front seven.  Seattle has struggled to protect its quarterback especially after Wilson's mobility has been slowed down by an ankle injury.   Fitzpatrick did struggle immensely against a Kansas City defense last week as he threw for 6 interceptions last week.  Look for this to be a low scoring affair.  

Detroit (-3) @ Chicago - The Bears offense has been struggling without Jay Cutler.  While the Lions did have a disappointing loss against the Titans in Week 2, the Lions' offense has played reasonably well on the road this season against the Colts and Packers.  

Tennessee @ Houston (-4.5) - The Texans will not have JJ Watt and are coming off one of its worst showings after a 27-0 loss against the Patriots last Thursday.  That being said, they have had extra time to prepare against a Titans team whose offense has yet to put up more than 16 points this season.

Oakland (+3.5) @ Baltimore - Baltimore looks to keep its perfect season going after slowing down the Jaguars offense on the road. The Raiders offense can put up a lot of points and the Raiders defense appears to be solid as they did hold the Titans to 10 points last week.  

Carolina @ Atlanta (+3) - While the Panthers may have an easier time against the Falcons given that they played two of the top defenses in the NFL in the Broncos and Vikings, not everything may come together on the road in Atlanta.  Plus Atlanta's offense has been on a roll, putting up an average of 40 points in the past 2 weeks.  At the end of the day, this is a rivalry game between division rivals.  

Denver (-3) @ Tampa Bay - The Broncos have found a way to make life miserable for their opponents.  Tampa Bay's defense has also struggled as they have given more than 30 points per game.  The Buccaneers do not want to play from behind against a Broncos team that is good at pressuring the quarterback.  

Dallas (-1.5) @ San Francisco-  The Cowboys look to continue to feast on the play of weak quarterback play.  Chip Kelly's offense has question marks with Blaine Gabbert starting and the 49ers defense could struggle in containing the Cowboys running game, even with Dez Bryant out.  

New Orleans @ San Diego (-3.5) - New Orleans' defense has given up 30 or more points in 2 of their 3 past games.  San Diego is looking to make up for a poor showing against the Colts and should also be desperate for a win.  

Los Angeles (+8.5) @ Arizona - The Rams did manage to get their offense going with 37 points against Tampa Bay and did beat the Cardinals last season on the road.  The Cardinals find themselves in a precarious hole at 1-2 after losing to the Bills.  The Rams can keep it close if they can pressure Carson Palmer and running the ball with Todd Gurley.  

Kansas City @ Pittsburgh (-4) - The Chiefs did have an impressive win against the Jets but have struggled on the road.  The Steelers look to get back on track after a surprising loss to the Eagles. 

New York @ Minnesota (-4.5) - Despite losing Adrian Peterson, Minnesota's defense is playing on another level with recent wins over the Packers and Panthers. Eli Manning has struggled lately including 2 interceptions in the 4th quarter against Washington last week and their offense could struggle even more without Shane Vereen for the season.    


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