Well I'm not going to put my money where my mouth is on these bets but this is where I stand on the wins over/under for the NBA season.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Atlanta Hawks
43.5 – Over
Al Horford returns from a season ending injury (via Bleacher Report)
Atlanta gets back Al Horford and Mike Buldenhozer is a top notch NBA coach. The Hawks were among the top 3 teams in the Eastern Conference before Horford went down with a season ending injury. Look for them to compete for 4th to 5th seed in Eastern Conference.
Boston Celtics - 27.5 –
Under
Rondo is a top point guard when he's healthy
but he starts the 2014-15 season injured
(via Bleacher Report)
The Celtics have a pretty good coach in Brad Stevens. Still, they don't seem to have a lot of talent and the pieces don't seem to fit together. Guys like Smart and Rondo are redundant and Jeff Green doesn't show up every game. They did add James Young and someone like Kelly Olynik could make progress this upcoming season
Brooklyn Nets - 42 – Under
The Nets lost Paul Pierce and Shaun Livingston which is a big reason why they had a lot of success last season running small ball lineups. The front court pairing of Garnett/Lopez didn't work in the regular season. Lionel Hollins is a good head coach but he has less talent to work with in Brooklyn than he did with Grizzlies. Deron Williams is says that he is 100% but it remains to be seen.
I wonder if more Brooklyn Nets Fans will
become the majority of fans booing KG
Charlotte Hornets - 44.5– Over
Chicago Bulls – 55.5 - Over
- This all hinges on the health of Derrick Rose- I think it looks like he can make it through the year healthy and they have added a lot pieces in their frontcourt including Mirotic, McDermott, and Pau Gasol,
Cleveland 58.5 – Under
Cleveland's defense, especially its pick and roll, could be a problem
-Cleveland has a lot of talent but it may take time for the pieces to fit together. If this was the team's 2nd year together I would go for 60 wins plus but they may struggle defensively plus Anderson Varejao is injury prone. In fact, guys like Irving and Love have also had their stretches of injuries. The big thing will be if Cleveland can get it together defensively especially since Irving and Love are below average defenders. That offense should be the best in the NBA. Dave Blatt looks like he could be a good NBA head coach so I could see Cleveland figuring out sooner than later.
Detroit 36 – Over [LOCK]
- Detroit has no shortage of talent in terms of bigs; their weakness last year was their coaching and the Pistons have made a huge upgrade with Stan Van Gundy. Bringing in shooters like Augustin and Meeks (who is out with an injury to start the season) should help spread the floor. And like last season, the Pistons have the size to dominate opponents with Drummond, Smith, and Monroe- and won't play all of them at the same time which should optimize their lineups.
Indiana 33.5 – Under
- Paul George is out and Lance Stephenson is on Charlotte Hornets which makes the Pacers offense worse which was already considered to be mediocre. Rodney Stuckey could find himself playing well in terms of a fantasy player. Hibbert could still put together a solid season who was inconsistent last season. Hibbert could get more touches offensively which could give him better confidence to play defensively and on the boards.
Miami Heat 44.5 –
Over
Bosh and Wade are still 2 all star caliber players
(via NBA.com)
Miami did manage to win 45 games back in 2010 when they had Dwayne Wade and a bunch of mediocre players. Spolestra is a good coach when it comes to the regular season. Bosh and even Wade should play well without LeBron at times. Of course, the big if with Wade is his health but he may feel like he has something to prove with the departure of LeBron. Shabazz Napier who helped lead UConn to a national championship has been picking it up in preseason.
Milwaulkee Bucks 25.5
– Over
The Bucks have some talented pieces n Jabari Parker and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Coach Kidd appears to be a decent NBA head coach when he's not spilling soda. Of course things could turn out badly if they are tanking.
Knicks 41.5 –
Under [LOCK]
It may take a while for Derek Fisher
to coach up the Knicks
- The Knicks might be sharing the ball offensively but they have become worse defensively with the loss of Chandler. Dalembert has shown flashes but it is going to be hard to expect that effort from a game to game unless Derek Fisher channels Phil Jackson. Fisher may be working his magic on JR Smith who actually said:
"I'm not going to lie. Trying to think about the rest of the team over myself or my scoring is something that I never really had to do before" Link
Orlando 27 – Under
Orlando has a lot of young talent but I'm not sure how it will lead to wins this upcoming season. Elfrid Payton has gotten a lot of buzz and Aaron Gordon could project into a top notch power forward. Channing Frye is a good stretch big that could proide psacing like he did in Phoenix. Still, Orlando will probably tank away the season and try to ad another player in the lottery.
Philadelphia 15 – Over
I'm taking the over here but it could get ugly for the 76ers. They will find ways to win games just because the NBA season is so long.
Toronto 48 – Over
I think Lowry can play well after a big contract
via CBSSports.com
Toronto was on pace to be a 50 win team last season after the Rudy Gay trade. Kyle Lowry was an all star caliber point guard last year and young guys like DeRozan and Valuncinas will continue to develop.
Washington 47.5 – Over
John Wall sees himself winning a championship
and opening up a new restaurant someday
I have the Wizards getting 48 wins this season. The backcourt injury to Beal could set them back a bit but they could start out well if Porter steps up who played well in the preseason. The addition of bigs including Blair and Humphries should provide an upgrade in depth to the Wizards bigs.
Dallas - 50.5 (over)
Dirk and Chandler are reunited from their championship run
from 2011. The Mavericks also pick up Chandler
Rick Carlisle is a great coach. Dirk hasn't shown signs of slowing down. Tyson Chandler is an upgrade over Dalembert. Parsons can be plugged in and stretch the floor. Getting Jameer Nelson and Raymond Felton offsets the loss of Jose Calderson. The Mavericks do lose a bit defensively with Marion. Losing DeJuan Blair and Vince Carter hurt though.
Nuggets - 42.5 (under)
Kenneth Faried is a good building block but I'm not sure if he's a franchise player. Danillo Gallinari may not be right after missing a year and a half of basketball.
Warriors – 52 (over) LOCK
Golden State should be better offensively under Steve Kerr. Plus Golden State was a top defensive team last season. They could be a dark horse contender in the Western Conference.
Houston – 49.5 (over)
It's hard to see a Harden/Howard combo
having less than 50 win team
- Houston did not have an ideal offseason since they were not able to lure a major free agent in Anthony, Bosh, or James. Still, Trevor Ariza may be a better fit for them than Parsons because he is a better defender and hits 3s at a higher rate than Parsons. The Trail Blazers were just a bad matchup for the Rockets. Look for Harden to also keep drawing fouls at a ridiculous rate and Howard has been pretty durable over the past 2 seasons since his back injury.
LA Clippers – 56.5 – over - The Clippers are built for the regular season. Griffin can even carry the Clippers if CP3 misses a few games. Doc Rivers is a very good NBA head coach.
LA Lakers – 30.5 (under) LOCK
Byron Scott just is a downgrade
over D'Antoni (via slamonline.com)
The Lakers lost Pau Gasol. Steve Nash is out for the year and his career is likely over. Nick Young will miss the beginning of the season from a wrist injury. Kobe Bryant is back but it remains to be seen if he can carry a team around him. Randle was a great pick but it will take a while for him to develop.
Overall, the Lakers seem like a mediocre offensive team and a terrible defensive team. Their coach Byron Scott also doesn't seem like a good fit.
Memphis – 47.5 (over) LOCK
The Grizzlies should be a 50 win team if
Marc Gasol plays the whole season
The Grizzlies are a well coached team by Dave Joeger which managed to win more than 50 games despite the fact that Marc Gasol didn't play the whole season. They also got Vince Carter who is 38 but was one of the reasons why Dallas was able to take the Spurs to 7 games last season
Minnesota – 27.5 - Under
The Timberwolves have a lot talent. But I'm not sure where they get their scoring from down the stretch of games. Flip Saunders could coach this team up a bit but even Saunders can't work miracles as indicated by his time with the Washington Wizards.
New Orleans – 43.5 Under
Perhaps I'm slow to adopt the trend that Anthony Davis is going to be an elite player. Omer Asik should help the Hornets defensively. I'm just skeptical about the pieces around Davis which include Evans and Holiday.
OKC 53.5 – Under
Kevin Durant is injured and watches
the Washington Redskins with his Redskins blanket
Durant is out and could miss at least 2 months. Reggie Jackson also injured his ankle and is day to day. It will be interesting to see if Westbrook can carry the load for this team
Phoenix (44) – Over
Bledsoe, Dragic, and Thomas may
have the most talented backcourt in the NBA
(via thepodiumgame.com)
Jeff Hornacek is a great head coach. While the Suns lost Frye they seem to get the most out of talent that's on the roster. The Suns traded Marcin Gortat before the start of last season and that didn't seem to hurt them. Isiah Thomas is a good insurance policy if Bledsoe gets injured.
Portland (50) – Under
- Portland is a good team but they struggled to close the regular season last year. Lillard and Aldrige are really good offensive players. Batum and Matthews provide the ability to hit the three. Portland should still be a team than wins somewhere in the high forties.
Sacramento (33.5) –
Under
DeMarcus Cousins wishes he had more talent around him
(via Yahoo Sports)
The loss of Isiah Thomas hurts in the short term. DeMarcus Cousins has become a better player but he still needs to become more consistent. It will also be interesting to see if Rudy Gay can continue playing well with the Kings considering that he struggled with the Raptors and the Grizzlies and both of those teams have played better without him.
Utah 23.5 – Under
Dante Exum has shown flashes that people
talk about him as being a young Kobe (via NBA.com)
Utah could win more or less but they will be one of the worst teams in the Western Conference.
San Antonio – 57.5 - Over
- All San Antonio seems to do is win even if guys like Duncan, Ginobli, or Parker aren't playing. Greg Popovich is a mad scientist. Age could slow them down but people have been saying that for the past 5 years.
Seems like Spurs will never die (via Dime Magazine)
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