Week 4 Thursday Night Pick

The Bengals have to pressure Tannehill if they want 

to come away with a win (via Kean Radio)

Miami @ Cincinnati (-7.5)

Andy Dalton has a reputation for struggling in primetime games but Miami barely defeated the Browns as they gave up 24 points last week to a struggling Cleveland team who did not have their top 2 quarterbacks. Miami was lucky to escape with a win which could have been more if not for a bad kicking day by Cody Parker.  Miami did contain the run against Seattle but since then have struggled to limit both New England and Cleveland.  Cincinnati is without their top tight end Tyler Eifert and top corner Dre Patrick.  Still, the Bengals are desperate for a win after a disappointing loss to a quality team and one figures that hte Bengals defensive line could still create as many problems for Tannehill as Cleveland did last week.  The short week also traditionally gives the home team a better chance to come away with a win.  

Week 3 Picks

Denver looks to keep its perfect season going

while the Bengals to rebound from a touch loss

Denver @ Cincinnati (-3)- In what could be the game of the week, the Bengals look to get back on track after a tough loss to quality opponent in the Pittsburgh Steelers.  Rookie QB Trevor Siemian will be tested in his first road game of his career.  

Oakland (-1.5) @ Tennessee - Oakland lost a shootout with the Falcons last week.  While the Titans did come away with an impressive road win against the Lions, recent history is against them given that Tennessee has not won consecutive games since the 2013 season.   

Arizona @ Buffalo (-4.5) - Arizona appears to be back on track after losing their season opener.  Buffalo needs to get more consistent play out of Tyrod Taylor if they want to be competitive in this one.  

Baltimore @ Jacksonville - Jacksonville lost badly against the Chargers last week.  Still, the Ravens 2-0 has been incredibly soft and even struggled against the Browns when Josh McCown was healthy.  

Cleveland @ Miami (-9.5) - Robert Grifffin and Josh McCown are out and Miami looks to get its first win of the season.  

 

Washington @ New York Giant (-4.5) - Even if Washington can take out Odell Beckham, the Redskins still have to worry about stopping the run and creating pass pressure with its defensive line.  The Giants red zone defense has been good and looks to continue that trend against a Washington team that has struggled in that area.  

Detroit @ Green Bay (-7.5)- Green Bay lost a close game to the Vikings.  Look for them to get on track and Aaron Rodgers to finally put together a solid performance for the first time this season.  

Minnesota @ Carolina (-7) - The Vikings are without Adrian Peterson who could struggle against a Panthers team that destroyed the 49ers at home last week.  

San Francisco @ Seattle (-9.5) - Seattle's offense has only managed to score one offensive touchdown in the past two weeks.  Chip Kelly seems to have the 49ers going in the right direction despite a big loss to Carolina last week.  Still, questions remain about the 49ers defense after a poor showing in Carolina.  Seattle should also be desperate for a win after a poor showing against the Rams.  

Pittsburgh (-3.5) @ Philadelphia - While Philadelphia 2-0 start over Carson Wentz is impressive, especially considering how Carson Wentz has controlled without turnovers and their defense being solid.  That being said, Pittsburgh looks like one of the top teams in the NFL and look to keep their perfect season going.  

New York Jets @ Kansas City (-3) - The Chiefs lost a close game to the Texans last week.  Being at home could potentially slow down the Jets passing attack, which was on point last Thursday night against the Buffalo Bills.  

San Diego (-3) @ Indianapolis - Phillip Rivers and the Chargers are coming off a blowout win.   Andrew Luck is still trying to become more consistent.  

Chicago @ Dallas (-7) - Chicago appears to be in trouble after an injury to Jay Cutler.  Prescott appears to be a god game manager and Dallas's offensive line is impressive in keeping their quarterback upright.  Dallas could benefit more from using Alfred Morris instead of Elliot since Morris is more patient in letting holes develop than the rookie.  

Atlanta @ New Orleans (-3) - New Orleans offense looks to get back on track after a relatively poor showing for them against the Giants.  On the plus side, the Saints defense did manage to hold the Giants to only 16 points.   Atlanta offense was great against the Raiders but questions remain about their defense which has given up 4 touchdowns in each of the past two weeks.  

Week 3 Thursday Night Pick- Houston Texans @ New England Patriots

The Patriots may use wide receiver 

Julian Edelman at QB if Brisset is ineffective

Houston (pick'em) @ New England-  Tom Brady and Jimmy Garrapolo are out and Jacoby Brisset, a 3rd round pick, makes his first start.   The Patriots may try to incorporate Julian Edelman at QB given that was his original position in college and even has thrown a TD pass in the NFL. When QBs make their first start under Bill Belicheck, they are 5-0 .  Still, rookie quarterbacks are 0-6 against against Bill O'Brien's Texans.   Brock Osweiler also did manage to beat the Patriots when he was with Denver last season.  It will be important for the Texans to bring pressure with Clowney and JJ Watt and establishing the run with Lamar Miller if they want to come away with a road win.

Week 2 NFL Picks

Brett Favre says that Washington's use

 of Josh Norman makes no sense

Dallas @ Washington (-3) - Washington is hoping that they can get their running game going against Cowboys, after Washington struggled immensely doing just that against the Steelers.  Prescott did show flashes of being a solid QB but could struggle on the road as a rookie QB.  Washington was effective last year in slowing down Bryant with Breeland although perhaps Washington should consider shadowing Bryant with Norman given the amount of money Washington gave the pro-bowl corner this past offseason.  

New Orleans (+4) @ New York Giants - New Orleans one point loss against the Raiders is more impressive than the Giants one point win against Dallas.  Questions remain whether the Saints travel well but Brees could take advantage of the Giants secondary who could struggle in containing the Saints wide receivers.  

Tennessee @ Detroit (-6.5) - Detroit's offense didn't miss a beat without Calvin Johnson.  If Detroit can get a more impressive showing from their defense, the Lions could pull pull away from the Titans whose offense struggled greatly at home against the Vikings.

San Francisco @ Carolina (-13.5) - This could be a tough game for the 49ers to stay competitive because of the relatively early start game time starts and that the Panthers have had extra time to prepare from the Thursday night opener.

Miami Dolphins @ New England (-6.5) - New England looked sharp against the Cardinals without Brady and Gronkowski.  While the Dolphins kept it close against the Seahawks in Seattle, questions still remain on how effective their offense can be.  Dolphins could receive a boost if Arian Foster plays.  

Kansas City (+1) @ Houston -  The Chiefs came away with a close win after finally got it going in the 2nd half against the Chargers.  Brock Osweiler will certainly have his hands full against the Kansas City's defense.  

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh (-3) - The Bengals came away with a close win against the Jets that was decided by the final possession.  The Steelers look to repeat the success that they had with Antonio Brown and now DeAngelo Williams.  

Baltimore @ Cleveland (+5.5) - Losing RG3 for a few weeks may actually help the Browns in the short term.  Baltimore's defense did hold down the Bills but one has to handicap that considering what the Jets did to the Bills on Thursday night.  

Green Bay (-2) @ Minnesota - The Packers look to win their 2nd consecutive game on the road against a division rival.  The Vikings did slow the Titans but the Packers offense is a different animal.  

Indianapolis (+6.5) @ Denver - Luck should be motivated after a tough loss against the Lions.  Denver's defense may not be as good as last season. 

Tampa Bay (+7) @ Arizona - Jameis Winston looks like he's a force to be reckoned with especially with Mike Evans as deep threat. Questions remain about Arizona including if Palmer is still consistent.  

Atlanta @ Oakland (-4.5)- The Falcons should have come away with a win and might struggle against a Raiders team which came away with an impressive win against New Orleans.  

Jacksonville (+3) @ San Diego - Blake Bortles and the Jaguars kept it close against the Packers.   The Chargers may have trouble especially since they struggled stopping the Chiefs offense in the 2nd half plus will be without Keenan Allen for the remainder of the season.  

Seattle (+6) @ Los Angeles  - For whatever, the reason the Rams had played the Seahawks close recently and the Seahawks did struggle a bit against the Dolphins.  That being said, Case Keenum has looked terrible and it's unclear what homefield advantage the Rams will have.  

Philadelphia @ Chicago (-3) - After taking an early 10-7 lead against Minnesota last week, Chicago struggled against a strong Minnesota defense.  Chicago needs to come away with a win if they want to remain in the playoff pictures.

Week 2 Thursday Night Pick

Fitzpatrick struggled against the Bengals

Can he put it together against the Bills?

NY Jets @ Buffalo (-1) - The New York Jets look to rebound after a tough loss to the Bengals in their opener.  The Bills lost a low scoring affair against the Ravens.  Given the short week, the Bills should be favored at home plus Ryan Fitzpatrick is 1-8 against Rex Ryan's defenses.  

2016 Week 1 Picks Against the Spread

Todd Gurley looks to run over 

the 49ers on Monday Night

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta (-2.5) - Jameis Winston had a strong rookie year and will try to build on it.  Matt Ryan attempts to rebound with a healthy Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman.

Minnesota @ Tennessee (+2.5) - Adrian Peterson always scares run defenses and Stefon Diggs is an intriguing prospect at wide receiver; the problem of course is that Minnesota does have a questionable passing attack with Shaun Hill at least until Sam Bradford can get acclimated into the offense.  Tennessee bolsters its running game with Chris Ivory

Cleveland @ Philadelphia (-3.5) - RG3 did manage to eliminate the Philadelphia Eagles from the playoffs the last time he played at the Linc, but it might be too much to come away with a victory again even against a Philadelphia team that could start Chase Daniels at quarterback.

Cincinnati(-1.5) @ NY Jets- The Bengals appear to have the advantage at the quarterback with Andy Dalton in the battle of two high quality defenses.  The Bengals youth at running back including Jeremy Hill, Bernard, and AJ Green may be slightly better than the Jets older stars in Marshall and Forte.

Oakland @ New Orleans (-2) - It's hard what to make of the Saints, especially with a disappointing season.  That being said, Drew Brees can still make the Saint become a high octane offense especially at home.  

San Diego (+6.5) @ Kansas City- While the Chiefs feature a strong defense and a coach in Andy Reid that does relatively well on opening day, the Chargers are division rivals and could play the Chiefs close especially if Rivers can repeat his strong play from last season

Buffalo @ Baltimore (-3) - It is hard what to make of the Ravens after a bad season.  Buffalo is hoping that Tyrod Taylor an create for deep receiving threats like Sammy Watkins and that LeSean McCoy has some left in the tank.  And it will be interesting to see if Steve Smith Sr. has anything left after achilles injury to get back at his former team.  We will see if John Harbaugh can help the Ravens rebound especially with a team that plays better at home.  

Chicago @ Houston (-5)- The battle between two former Bronco quarterbacks.  Brock Osweiler may have learned enough to help the Texans take the next step.  Jay Cutler has been relatively solid although the Bears look to sow up their offensive line and look to find an adequate replacement for Mat Forte in Jeremy Langford.  

Green Bay (-5) @ Jacksonville -  Blake Bortles is an impressive QB with a number of receiving options but Aaron Rodgers also should have a healthy receiving corp including the return of Jordy Nelson.  Randall Cobb should also get more with the additional attention that defenses hae to pay and could also open up the running attack. 

Miami @ Seattle (10.5) - It is unclear how the Dolphins new coaching staff can repel Seattle's homefield advantage.  

NY Giants @ Dallas - Dallas's homefield isn't all that impressive and the Giants should take advantage of the absence of Tony Romo.  Ezekiel Elliot could be an x factor although I like the Giants to amend for last season's opening collapse against Dallas in week 1 of last season.

Detroit @ Indianapolis (-2.5) - Luck appears to have more around him offensively especially with the departure of Calvin Johnson.   

New England @ Arizona (-7)- The losers of the conference championship face off.  The Patriots are without Brady.  While Belicheck may coach New England up, the Cardinals have typically done well against teams they are supposed to beat.  

Pittsburgh @ Washington (+3) -   Washington dodges a bullet given that LeVeon Bell is out with a suspension.  Kirk Cousins will try to do well against what many people consider a .500 plus caliber team, although the Steelers were at best average defensively last season.  The Redskins also hope Matt Jones and Chris Thompson can at least give Washington  a viable running game.  Washington may rely more on their receivers including tight end Jordan Reed.  One thing to watch for is if Jackson and Garcon  can keep up their production from years past.  The Redskins will also look for their young receivers like Josh Doctson and Rashad Ross to step up.   A big key is if Josh Norman can live up to his salary and slow down Antonio Brown.

LA (-2.5) @ San Francisco - Chip Kelly's offense gets set in motion with Blaine Gabbert, Torrey Smith, and Carlos Hyde.  The Rams look to get Todd Gurley going against a 49ers defense that hasn't been the same since Jim Harbaugh left.

NBA Finals Preview and Prediction

The Cavs and Warriors face off again in the NBA Finals

James hopes to be the one smiling this time around

The Golden State Warriors looks to repeat as defending champions while LeBron and the Cavaliers try to end Cleveland's championship drought; Cleveland is the only city with three professional sport franchises that has not won a championship in 52 years. 

Unlike last season, Cleveland enters this series with a healthy Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love. Irving suffered a season ending knee injury during the end of game 1 of the NBA Finals while Love sustained a shoulder injury in game 1 against the Boston Celtics that knocked him out of the postseason. By being healthy, the Cavs are certainly a better offensive team than last season especially from 3 point range which is also bolstered by Channing Frye, Mo Williams, and Richard Jefferson.   Cleveland is actually shooting a higher percentage from 3 than Golden State this postseason  (44% to 40%) although Cleveland's road to the Finals has been significantly easier than Golden State in terms of strength of schedule.  

It will be tough for Cleveland to replicate the success that Oklahoma City had defensively against Golden State.  Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love have been below average defensive players and it will be hard to hide both considering that Golden State's offense often forces switches.   This means that Golden State through screens and off ball action will force Cleveland's lesser defenders to guard Curry and Thompson.  Even Adams and Ibaka, who relatively quick big men, struggled immensely to contain Curry so Cleveland will have its hands full.  

LeBron James wear and tear is showing, and was not a good defensive player during the regular season, although I suspect James will pick up his effort and intensity in the Finals.  Even so, James can only guard one of three of Golden States All Stars.  Matthew Dellevedova will be used at times to guard Curry but now Cleveland will may have to put another strong defender on Klay Thompson as well.  

On the plus side for Cleveland, the Cavaliers should be more rested than the Warriors.  Cleveland has only played 14 games while the Warriors have played 17.  That being said, it should not be a big advantage if any because the Warriors had 2 days rest to prepare for game 1.  If anything, the Cavs could come into game 1 rusty and it may take time for Cleveland to adjust to the Warriors given that the Warriors are already used to playing at a higher level against stronger teams.  

Golden State despite boasting a 73 win team could still be vulnerable for a loss.  Even though Curry has played well over the last few games, consistency is still a concern after coming off a sprained knee.  The Warriors may also not play optimal lineups, especially their death lineup of Curry/Thompson/Barnes/Iguodala/Green and Kerr may be reluctant to play Festus Ezeli over Andrew Bogut unless the Warriors find themselves in a hole.  Also, if Green commits two technical fouls or a flagrant foul, Green could be suspended who is the anchor of the Warriors' defense. 

That being said, the Warriors are still the favorites.  Curry and Thompson are significantly better than they were last year and that's saying something considering Curry was already an MVP and Thompson was an all star last season.  Curry's season in terms of offensive efficiency may be better than any player in NBA history.  Klay Thompson play in the postseason has been great as well- his 41 point performance in game 6 saved the Warriors season.  His play of late has garnered respect of many NBA analysts who say his play is as good or even better than Hall of Famer Reggie Miller, especially since Thompson usually takes on guarding the other teams best player including Westbrook, Harden, and Lillard.

Draymond Green will also look to get on track against the Cavaliers.   Look for Green to get going offensively again against Cleveland who do not boast the same high quality big men as Oklahoma City, although Green will certainly have to prove his worth again when guarding Kevin Love.

And Andre Iguodala who won the finals MVP is still a strong defensive player.  He was very effective in limiting Kevin Durant's offense and he looks again to take on the challenge of guaring LeBron James.  And of course, the Warriors also have strong supporting players including Harrison Barnes, Andrew Bogut, Shaun Livingston, and Festus Ezeli who are all good two way players.  

While many will say this is a battle between Curry and James as the best player in the NBA, it may not be a fair fight for LeBron given that Curry looks to have the superior supporting cast.  True, players like Love and Irving can sustain the same fire power as Golden State at times, but Golden State is by far a superior defensive team.  And even if Cleveland has shown the ability to have a good offense, they struggle more to create good ball movement. I predict that the Warriors will win in 6.