2024 Week 11 Picks

On October 13th, Caleb Williams had 9 TDs and 5 interceptions.  

On November 17th, he still has 9 TDs and 5 Interceptions (via @wesskywalker)

 Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) - Washington is coming off a short week and their defense has had trouble slowing down the run. 

Green Bay Packers (-6.5) @ Chicago Bears - The Bears defense could slow down the Packers although Caleb William's inconsistency as of late may allow the Packers to take an early lead.

Jacksonville Jaguars(-13) @ Detroit Lions- The Lions could potentially blow out the Jaguars although Trevor Lawrence has been playing slightly better lately.

Minnesota Vikings @ Tennessee Titans (+6) - The Vikings playing away from home could make this game relatively close although they can still be explosive and run away with the game.

Las Vegas Raiders (+8) @ Miami Dolphins - Tyreek Hill is a bit banged up.  The Raiders are slightly worse with Tua back but have at times played teams like the Chiefs and Rams close on the road.  

Los Angeles Rams @ New England Patriots(+4.5)- Being an away game for the Rams could allow the Patriots with a way to compete and Drake Maye has been playing well.

Cleveland Browns @ New Orleans Saints (-1) - Derek Carr is back playing against former Saints quarterback Jameis Winston.  

Indianapolis Colts @ New York Jets (-4) - The Jets will face Anthony Richardson.  Both teams are heading the wrong direction.

Baltimore Ravens (-3)(LOCK) @ Pittsburgh Steelers - The Steelers played well against the Commanders but will be tested against the Ravens who should give them a healthy dose of Derrick Henry.  

Atlanta Falcons (+2.5) @ Denver Broncos - The Falcons could pull out a road win here although Kirk Cousins will need to be on point in the altitude in Denver.  

Seattle Seahawks (+6.5) @ San Francisco 49ers - The Seahawks could make the division game close as George Kittle is out with a hamstring injury although Christian McCaffrey is back in the lineup.

Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5) @ Buffalo Bills-  A toss up game.  The Chiefs may be locked in order to secure homefield in the playoffs although they have a slight cushion in the NFL standings.  

Cincinnati Bengals  @ Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5)- The Chargers on a whole are a more well rounded team in terms of their defense which could give them the slight edge but I wouldn't rule out Burrow and Chase for teaming up for some explosive plays.

Dallas Cowboys (+7.5) @ Houston Texans - Theoretically could be a blow out although the Texans have been playing down to the level of their competition in games against the Jets and Colts and do not seem as explosive without Diggs.  

Week 10 Against the Spread- 7-7

Week 10Straight up – 10-5

Week 10 Locks - 1-1

2024 Against the Spread- 78-77

2024 Locks – 10-7-1

2024 Straight up- 100-53

2024 Week 10 Picks

Dak Prescott is planning to have season ending surgery

according to ESPN

New York Giants @ Carolina Panthers (+6) - The Giants are not terrible but perhaps the Panthers can keep it to a one score game.

New England Patriots (+6) @ Chicago Bears - Caleb Williams has been struggling over the past two games and goes against Drake Maye.  The Bears defense should make life difficult for Maye although the Bears propensity to not show up is making me wonder to go against them.   This is a must win game for the Bears as their schedule gets significantly harder after this not to mention that every other team in their division is playing well.   

Buffalo Bills (-4) @ Indianapolis Colts - The Colts were not able to hold to their lead against the Vikings.  Flacco and the Colts put up only 13 points.  The Colts offense should be stronger against the Bills although Buffalo could make it a higher scoring affair.

Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5)- It could be a long day for Bo Nix against the Chiefs defense at Arrowhead.  Only question is if Patrick Mahomes can finally get it going and put the hammer down on the Broncos.

Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) @ New Orleans Saints - The Falcons under Cousins seem to be one of the stronger offenses in the NFL.  The Falcons barely came away with a win the last time these two teams played although the Saints appear to be going in a different direction with injuries to their wide receivers and Carr has reverted back to an inconsistent quarterback  

San Francisco 49ers (-5.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers - All signs point to Christian McCaffrey making his return.  Tampa did keep it close against the Chiefs, and the 49ers are traveling from East to West.  Still the 49ers are coming off a bye and look to build momentum for a playoff run.  

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Washington Commanders (-3)-  This could be a close game but the Commanders could be favored based on their ability to run the ball and their quarterback play.  They still have to continue to protect the ball against a feisty Steelers defense.

Minnesota Vikings (-4)(LOCK) @ Jacksonville Jaguars - I don't think anyone had Sam Darnold outplaying Trevor Lawrence but it looks like that is where the Vikings hold the advantage not to mention their superior head coach.   

Tennessee Titans @ Los Angeles Chargers (-7.5)  - The Chargers have secured their last two wins by 17 points or more and look to continue that trend against a hapless Titans team.

Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5) @ Dallas Cowboys - Cooper Rush is 5-1 as a starter.  Still the Eagles are playing great football although they have a propensity to be inconsistent, the recent trend shows the Eagles competing hard to win the division.  

New York Jets @ Arizona Cardinals(-1) - Both teams are coming off wins.   It looks as though the Cardinals are playing better football throughout the season although the Jets building a winning streak is not out of the question

Detroit Lions (-3.5) @ Houston Texans - Houston could have trouble slowing down the Lions' running which could lead to a higher scoring game.  Diggs being out could hurt the Texans offense.

Miami Dolphins @ Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) (LOCK)- Perhaps there will be a large Dolphins contingent in LA but the Rams look like the superior team.  

Week 9 Against the Spread- 5-10

Week 9 Straight up – 12-3

Week 9 Locks - 1-0

2024 Against the Spread- 71-70

2024 Locks – 9-6-1

2024 Straight up- 90-48

2024 Week 9 Picks

Joe Flacco gets $100,000 if the Colts wins and he plays 50% of the offensive snaps 

Dallas Cowboys (+2.5) @ Atlanta Falcons - The Cowboys are in desperation mode needing a win here.  They looked fairly competent at times against the 49ers but ultimately came up short.  If the Cowboys lose, Mike McCarthy's chances of surviving this season greatly diminish.

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills (-6) - Typically one could assume a close division rivalry game.  But Tua looks a bit conservative in his level of play which could make the battle slightly more uphill on the road in a division rivalry game.

Las Vegas Raiders (+7) @ Cincinnati Bengals - The Bengals defense has usually kept their opponents in games.  The Raiders could be in trouble though if this game becomes a shootout.   

Los Angeles Chargers (+2) @ Cleveland Browns - This could be a trap game for the Chargers who are traveling from west to east.  Still, Jameis Winston has been an up and down player in his career and the Chargers defense will see if they can force some turnovers.

New England Patriots (+3.5) @ Tennessee Titans - Both teams are fairly evenly matched and perhaps the Patriots can continue some of their momentum to make this a close game with Drake Maye back in the lineup.  

Washington Commanders @ New York Giants - The Commanders could be due for a let down against the Giants after a miraculous win against the Bears.  Still, it seems like Washington will not take the Giants lightly after a close game in week 2.  Washington did move the ball well but will need to convert in the red zone- a problem they also had against the Bears.   Washington's defense has looked sharper although they will need to be on point against Jones who has had some success against Washington in past seasons.  

New Orleans Saints (-7) @ Carolina Panthers - Derek Carr makes his return.  He could be rusty but the Saints already blew out the Panthers earlier this season.

Denver Broncos (+9.5) @ Baltimore Ravens - This could be a get right game for the Ravens after a terrible loss to the Broncos.  Still this seems like a lot of points especially since the Broncos have been competitive lately.   

Chicago Bears (+1) @ Arizona Cardinals - Interesting game against two teams competing for a playoff spot.  Caleb Williams could bounce back and the Bears defense may be the separating factor of this game.

Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers (+3.5) - The Packers will have Jordan Love against this one and the Lions while having impressive victories will finally be tested on the road in a division game.

Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams (-1.5)(LOCK) - I didn't get the memo last week, but it looks like the Rams are finally healthy.  It could be tough on the road for the Rams, but the overreaction from beating the Vikings could be that the Rams could make a potential playoff run.

Indianapolis Colts (+5.5) @  Minnesota Vikings-  Joe Flacco could do enough to keep this game close.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Kansas City Chiefs (-9)- The Chiefs have routinely kept their opponents in games but the Bucs are dealing with a fair share of injuries that may force them to tap out if Mahomes shows up.    

Week 8 Against the Spread- 11-5

Week 8 Straight up – 11-5

Week 8 Locks - 3-0

2024 Against the Spread- 66-60

2024 Locks – 8-6-1

2024 Straight up- 78-45

2024 Week 8 Picks

Cleveland Browns'Myles Garrett

dresses up as Terminator before the Ravens game 

Minnesota Vikings @ Los Angeles Rams -  The Vikings look to continue their winning ways coming off a bye although Puka has returned back to the lineup.

Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals - The Bengals offense has played better lately although their defense hasn't been tested in a few weeks.  The Eagles are looing to keep pace with the Commanders who beat the Bengals on the road earlier this season. With AJ Brown's return, the Eagles look slightly better than the Bengals although perhaps the Eagles play down to their competition.   

Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns(+9) - Perhaps the Browns can keep it close against a division rival although Lamar Jackson running up the score is a distinct possibility.  

Tennessee Titans @ Detroit Lions (-11) - The Lions are looking to put the hammer down on the Titans who look like one of the worst teams in the NFL this season. 

Arizona Cardinals(+3) @ Miami Dolphins - Tua makes his return meaning a possible revival of Tyreek Hill.  There could be some rust but the Dolphins appear to not be a pushover.  

New York Jets @ New England Patriots (+7)-  The Jets seems to be in perpetual laughing stock although they will get a potential break in playing the Patriots.  Drake Maye will make another start who showed flashes but also committed a few turnovers.

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5) - The Bucs are looking to avenge an overtime loss to the Falcons earlier in the season.  The Falcons are looking to add to its road wins which include games against the Eagles and Panthers.

Green Bay Packers(-4.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars - The Jaguars are coming off a win against the lowly Patriots but the Packers are coming off 3 straight wins and looking to continue that trend to keep up with the Lions.

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (-6) - The games between these two division rivals have been lose although the Texans appear to be playing with an axe to grind after a close loss to the Packers.  

New Orleans Saints @ Los Angeles Chargers (-7.5) - The Saints look like a shell of their former self without Derek Carr.  The Chargers are coming off a close loss to the Cardinals and look to regain their form.

Buffalo Bills @ Seattle Seahawks(+3.5) - The Bills are a bit banged with their middle line backer Bernard out.  The Seahawks will be without DK Metcalf so the Bills have a chance to pull out a road win here.  

Carolina Panthers @ Denver Broncos (-9) - The Panthers surge with Andy Dalton appears to have been a blip in the pan while the Broncos could run up the score if Bo Nix plays well.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders (+10) - The Antonio Pierce led Raiders did manage to play spoiler against the Chiefs last season.  Mahomes does get a new weapon in DeAndre Hopkins although it could take a bit for him to get acclimated.  

Chicago Bears @ Washington Commanders (-1.5)(LOCK) - It looks like Jayden Daniels will play despite the rib injury.  The battle of the number 1 and number 2 picks should be a fun matchup.  The Commanders secondary will be interesting to watch in how it deals with Caleb Williams.  

Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers (-4.5)(LOCK) - The Cowboys are coming off a bye to lick its wounds only to face a 49ers team that is looking to rebound from a tough loss to the Chiefs.  It looks like the 49ers just have the Cowboys number.  Dak Prescott needs to show something here for the Cowboys to be taken more seriously in the postseason.

New York Giants @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5)(LOCK) - Daniel Jones was benched against the Eagles.  Things could get ugly here for whoever the Giants decide to roll out at quarterback against a Steelers team that has given the keys to Russell Wilson as a quarterback.   

Week 5 Against the Spread- 6-9

Week 5 Straight up – 7-7

2024 Against the Spread- 55-54

2024 Locks – 5-6-1

2024 Straight up- 67-40

2024 Week 6 Picks

According to Jonathan Jones,  Robert Saleh considered firing Nathaniel Hackett before getting fired himself

San Francisco 49ers (- 3.5) @ Seattle Seahawks - Two teams are coming off surprising losses.   For now I give the edge to the 49ers given Kyle Shanahan's coaching acumen but the Seahawks keeping it close would not be surprising especially with all the injuries the 49ers have been dealing with.  

Jacksonville Jaguars(+2.5) @ Chicago Bears - The Jaguars look to continue their streak of winning at London.

Washington Commanders(+7)(LOCK) @ Baltimore Ravens - It has been some time since the Commanders were featured in the game of the week category.   Both teams have QBs that have been playing lights out (Daniels/Jackson), great running attacks, and tight ends who have been considered washed up (Ertz/Andrews).   The Ravens pass defense has been in question especially with their defensive coordinator going to the Seattle.   Certainly a toss up game, unless the Ravens see something from the game film and can dissect how Daniels has been doing.   

Tampa Bay Bucs (-3.5) @ New Orleans Saints - Derek Carri s out with an injury.  The Bucs suffered a bad loss to Atlanta and this game is a relatively must win given that their schedule gets much harder over the next five (Ravens, Falcons, Chiefs, 49ers).  

Detroit Lions (-3) @ Dallas Cowboys -  The Cowboys pulled out a nice win against Pittsburgh.  The Lions are coming off a bye and look to be a superior team than the Steelers especially in the passing attack.  

Cleveland Browns(+8.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles - DeShaun Watson has reached epic levels of terrible.  Although maybe the Browns can continue the streak of teas that play Washington getting a win.  Maybe but unlikely given the Eagles are coming off a bye and getting AJ Brown back from an injury.

Arizona Cardinals(+5) @ Green Bay Packers - Kyler Murray and the Cardinals looked impressive against the 49ers.  They go against another former Washington assistant head coach in Matt LaFleur.  The Packers might be on par with the injury riddled 49ers plus I'm not sure how consistent the Cardinals are even coming off a win.  

Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos (+3) -  The Chargers are coming off a bye and a  quality loss to the Chiefs where they were held scoreless after the first quarter against the Chiefs.  Still, everything seems to be clicking for the Broncos. who are on a 3 game winning streak.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) @ Las Vegas Raiders - The Steelers look to get right in Las Vegas.  Right now the Steelers seem to be playing better although Fields inconsistency could allow the Raiders to perhaps pull out an upset.  

Houston Texans (-7)(LOCK) @ New England Patriots - The Patriots appear to be a true work in progress and for now appear to be one of the worst teams in the NFL.  Complacency by the Texans could allow the Patriots to remain in the game although an upset seems unlikely.  

Indianapolis Colts (-1) @ Tennessee Titans - The Titans are coming off a bye and Michael Pittman is out with an injury.  In the short term the Colts seem more likely to win if Flacco plays although Richardson may still do enough.  

Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers (+6) - Two teams that are playing at polar opposites.  Hard to say how the Falcons will play in a easy game but for now one has to project a win against the Panthers whose defense has ben playing at abysmal levels.  

Cincinnati Bengals (-4) @ New York Giants - The Giants are coming off a nice win against the Seahawks.  If the Giants win this game, perhaps the NFC East will be considered significantly stronger then AFC North.   

Buffalo Bills (-4) @ New York Jets - The Jets are testing the theory of winning after firing a head coach.  I would give the Jets a better chance to win the game if they had actually lost to a team that wasn't good last week since the Vikings are undefeated and if Robert Saleh firing coincided with the firing of Nathaniel Hackett. 

Week 5 Against the Spread- 6-8

Week 5 Straight up – 7-7

Week 5 Locks – 2-0

2024 Against the Spread- 39-41

2024 Locks – 4-6

2024 Straight up- 46-32

2024 Week 5 Picks

 

 Davante Adams has requested out of Las Vegas and could be traded. 

Tampa Bay Bucs (+2.5) @Atlanta Falcons - The Bucs with Mayfield have been playing well including Baker Mayfield and Bucky Irving.   The Falcons keep pulling out wins although Cousins and Pitts looked shaky last week. 

New York Jets @ Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) (LOCK) (London) – Rodgers looked shaky against the Broncos.   The Vikings defense could force Rodgers into some bad decisions. 

Buffalo Bills (-1.5) @ Houston Texans – The Bills are looking to rebound after a tough loss to the Ravens.  The Texans pulled out a win against the Jaguars, but they easily could have lost if not for a goal line stand.

Carolina Panthers @ Chicago Bears (-3.5) - Caleb Williams has been playing OK for a rookie quarterback although the Bears fans are hoping that he plays closer to the level of Jayden Daniels.   The Panthers offense looks competent with Andy Dalton although they face a tough Bears defense that does a good job forcing turnovers.    

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5) – Perhaps the Bengals can pull out a win against a division rival although they will have their hands full with Derrick Henry

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (-1) - Drake Maye is not scheduled to play yet.  The Dolphins offense has looked dreadful without Tua. 

Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) – The Colts could take a bit of a hit with Jonathan Taylor out, although the Jaguars have been finding ways to lose all season.  The Jaguars gave up 2^nd half leads to the Dolphins and the Texans- maybe they are due for a win.  Jacksonville beat Indianapolis twice last season by double digits. 

Las Vegas Raiders (+3) @ Denver Broncos - A division rivalry game that could go either way.  Bo Nix only threw for 60 yards last week.  Gardner Minshew also struggled- so it could be a low scoring game. 

Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers (-7.5) – The 49ers are dealing with a number of injuries, but the 49ers also seem to take care of lesser opponents.

New York Giants @ Seattle Seahawks (-6)- Daniel Jones and the Giants have played their division opponents close in loses but might struggle on the road against an explosive Seattle offense. 

Green Bay Packers (-3.5) @ Las Angeles Rams – Jordan Love and the Packers looked much sharper in the 2^nd half against the Vikings and look to continue that momentum against the Rams who are still dealing with a slew of injuries to their wide receiving corps. 

Dallas Cowboys @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)- Both teams are dealing with injuries.  The Cowboys are playing without their top two defensive players in Lawrence and Parsons.  The Steelers are running out of healthy running backs with Jaylen Warren out.  While the Cowboys need this win more theoretically, the Steelers are already coming off a loss and cold bounce back. 

 

Cleveland Browns @ Washington Commanders (-3.5)- The Browns defense could do better at slowing down the Jayden Daniels lead offense than either the Bengals or Cardinals.   Still, Washington’s defense did seem to find some semblance of competence as they only gave up 14 points, and only 7 after the Cardinals put up a score on the opening drive. 

 

New Orleans Saints @ Kansas City Chiefs (-5)- Derek Carr did enough to lead the Saints to a win even though he struggled.  The Chiefs offense has struggled due to injuries to Pacheko and Rice.  The Saints goal line offense has struggled when Taysom Hill left with a rib injury.

 

Week 4 Against the Spread- 9-7

Week 4 Straight up – 9-7

Week 4  Locks – 1-1

2024 Against the Spread- 33-33

2024 Locks – 2-6

2024 Straight up- 39-25

2024 Week 4 Picks

Jayden Daniels and Joe Burrow lead their teams without a TD or turnover.  This was the first time since 1940 that both teams did that.

 

Dallas Cowboys(-5.5) @ New York Giants- The Cowboys have had the Giants number the last few meetings including some massive blowouts.  The Giants do have a better receiving corps and a better running game not to mention that Dallas is dealing with a few in.  For some reason I think the owboys will rebound after a loss to the Ravens although I would be somewhat delighted if Daniel Jones can pull the Giants back to .500. 

 

New Orleans Saints (+2) @ Atlanta Falcons- Cousins has looked better and Derek Carr struggled against the Eagles.     Not sure which version of either quarter back shows up but I have been more impressed with the Saints in weeks 1-2.

 

Los Angeles Rams(+3) @ Chicago Bears -  Caleb Williams did throw for 300 plus yards but the Rams looked tough against 49ers.  Kyren Williams had 3 touchdowns last week and appears to have absorbed the volume with Kupp and Puka out. 

 

Minnesota Vikings(+2.5) @ Green Bay Packers -  The Vikings look a lot better than last season but are dealing with a few injuries but so are the Packers.  Malik Willis has been playing well but the Vikings defense has been playing well.  Matt Lafleur has been coaching the Packers. 

 

Pittsburgh Steelers (-2)(LOCK) @ Indianapolis Colts -  This seems like a game where the Steeler defense makes Anthony Richardson’s life miserable.  Justin Fields isn’t exactly lighting it up though which could keep Indianapolis in it if Michael Pittman figures it out. 

 

Denver Broncos (+7.5) @ New York Jets -  Both teams came away with nice wins.  Aaron Rodgers is looking like Aaron Rodgers again and the Broncos blew out the Bucs.   Perhaps the Broncos defense can do enough the slow down the Broncos offense but the Jets have numerous offensive weapons that could pull ahead. 

Washington Commanders (+3.5) @ Arizona Cardinals-  Kingsbury goes against his former protégé Kyler Murray.  Jayden Daniels can’t keep playing this well although teams that have played the Lions the previous week have not covered since last year.   Although Washington’s defense could allow Marvin Harrison Jr. to have a great game. 

Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2) -  The Eagles go against the team that eliminated them last season.  It looks like AJ Brown is not going to play.

 

Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5) @ Carolina Panthers -   Andy Dalton goes against his former team and looks to put them at 0-4.  It still feels like the Bengals offense is finding its rhythm and they have to win.  Although they do remind me of Washington teams in the past that played down to the level of their competition.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars (+7) @ Houston Texans – Both teams got blown out.  The Texans offense could do enough to pull out the win but perhaps Jaguars will show signs of life after an embarrassing loss against a division rival.

 

New England Patriots @ San Francisco 49ers (-10) – The 49ers look to pull it together after losing to a division rival.  The Patriots were surprisingly competitive the first two weeks but Jacoby Brissett and the team seems to have regressed to the mean.  I wonder if we see Drake Maye soon.

 

Cleveland Browns @ Las Vegas Raiders (+1) - Both teams are coming off bad losses to 0-2 teams where they were expected to win by large margins.  The Raiders with Minshew may come out on top given that Watson is having trouble putting it together.

 

Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers (+8.5)- It maybe Heinickie time again if Herbert can’t go.  The Chiefs offense has been playing pretty poorly although their defense keeps getting the wins.

 

Buffalo Bills (+3) @ Baltimore Ravens – Josh Allen looked great against the Jaguars.  The Ravens defense has looked shaky.  The Ravens need Lamar to come through.  The Bills defense will be  

Tennessee Titans @ Miami Dolphins (+1.5) – Perhaps the Dolphins will show signs of life at home against the Titans who also looked shaky against the Jets.

Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions (-5)- Both teams are undefeated but the Seahawks are dealing with a few injuries in the backfield.   The Lions look to solidify their case as being the best team in the NFC East after knocking off the Bucs last week. 

Week 3 Against the Spread- 9-7

Week 3 Straight up - 8-8

Week 3 Locks - 0-1

2024 Against the Spread- 24-26

2024 Locks – 1-5

2024 Straight up- 30-18